Ukraine’s Strikes on Russian Oil Refineries Prompt Gas Crisis

Ukraine is bringing the war back to Russia on an unprecedented scale, scale, and intensity, and in a way that could have consequences — perhaps not on the battlefield, but in the hearts, minds, and wallets of ordinary Russians.

Since August, Ukraine has been aggressively pursuing Russian oil facilities. Kiev has been targeting refineries and warehouses intermittently for the better part of two years, but thanks to the proliferation of small, cheap drones, some larger aircraft, and perhaps even a home-made cruise missile, Ukraine is now striking Russia’s far-flung oil facilities just fine.

Ukraine is bringing the war back to Russia on an unprecedented scale, scale, and intensity, and in a way that could have consequences — perhaps not on the battlefield, but in the hearts, minds, and wallets of ordinary Russians.

Since August, Ukraine has been aggressively pursuing Russian oil facilities. Kyiv was intermittent Targeting refineries And warehouses for Better part For two years, but thanks to the proliferation of small, cheap drones, some larger aircraft, and perhaps even a home-made cruise missile, Ukraine is now hitting remote Russian oil facilities at large.

It is not necessary to do the full series of Objectives That was hit – there it was Another one Just this week – to appreciate that Ukraine has more or less concluded a ‘return to sender’ after three years of relentless Russian air strikes on… Houses, Hospitals, KindergartenAnd children.

Bread lines in Russia have now given way to Gas lines.

The Ukrainian air counterattack affected Russia Refinery complexIt is a big part of how Moscow makes money to finance its war. But, he gasped Reports Regardless, experts say Ukraine has not yet disabled or disabled half of Russia’s oil facilities 38 percent of refining capacity in Russia. This number is too much.

“Well, that’s just nonsense,” said Sergei Vakulenko, who until 2022 was a top executive at a Russian energy company.

What is true is that Ukraine, thanks to the availability of mass-produced drones, has been able to strike targets up to 2,000 kilometers inside Russia. Small drones have little ability to overcome scattered Russian air defenses, or at least enough of them to do some damage. And Ukraine may if Economist This is correcthas already unleashed the Flamingo missile, a home-made cruise missile equipped with a warhead. In both cases, direct American support, whether in the form of… Tomahawk Cruise missiles or any long-range firepower may not be make or break for Kiev.

The bigger question is what specifically Ukraine hopes to achieve with its attack. Russia has recently come into its own I picked up the pace Of its attacks on the natural gas sector in Ukraine, after previously targeting mostly power plants. Transition is fair game, so hitting Russia’s energy infrastructure after years of sustained attacks is only the baseline. But what is the point?

“The first is to make it painful for the population,” said Vakulenko, now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “The second is to make it painful for the Russian economy.” A third potential goal won’t happen, he said: As much as Ukraine is hitting refineries, disrupting diesel distilleries and the like, the Russian military is unlikely to be hampered by fuel shortages.

The Russian people have been through a lot in the past few centuries and decades, but the past few years have also been noteworthy. The ruble did collapse briefly, though It rose dramatically In 2025. But inflation is higher than the employment figures adopted by the country’s Ministry of Defense. Banks hold and hide debts and large debts. It is the country of former US senator John McCain Describe it once As a fuel station with nuclear weapons it now has Gas lines In Vladivostok.

A person of a certain age who grew up in the United States and remembers lines of cars angrily heading toward empty gas pumps in the 1970s might think that such a local crisis could be pivotal. But it may not be in Russia under President Vladimir Putin.

“I think Putin has better control over the elections than Jimmy Carter,” Vakulenko said.

As far as the Russian economy is concerned, the Ukrainian strikes do one thing very well, which is limit Russia’s ability to convert crude oil into higher-value refined products. What that means is that Russia only ships raw materials. This brings less revenue, and the country as well Port capacity running outBut it still reaches global markets, especially since Russian oil tanker fleets are widespread.

But this does not affect Russia in general Profits Of too much energy, if at all. These expenses have remained constant, for years now, at about 550 million euros per day. Russia has a large amount of surplus refining capacity, so destroying entire parts of it, as Ukraine did, will not destroy this complex.

What the attack appears to have done is increase pressure on Russia’s already overburdened energy sector. Craig Kennedy, a Russian energy expert at Harvard University, said outstanding loans held by Russian refiners had swelled to nearly $14 billion in the 12 months to July 2025. He noted that the sudden rise in debt could be explained by the purchase of much-needed equipment from China to repair damaged facilities.

The refinery strikes, part of a broader campaign to limit Russia’s oil and gas revenues, are weighing on the Kremlin’s balance of accounts, even if spare parts and spare power can survive the worst of the attack.

“Spontaneously, [refinery strikes] “They are unlikely to change this calculus, but as part of a broader, multi-front attack on the oil sector, they may do so,” Kennedy said.

Ukraine’s attack against Russian refineries may not have fully achieved its goal – bringing the regime to its knees. But when it comes to refined petroleum products, such as gasoline or jet fuel, the message is on the margins. In 1940, during Battle of BritainSpitfire pilots had Secret weapon: American-made high-octane aviation fuel allowed them to defeat the Luftwaffe. This was not so much a refining achievement as a chemical one, but little things can make a big difference when countries are at war.

Ukraine is nibbling at these margins.

“They’re not there yet. It’s not a slam dunk. It’s gone from a minor nuisance to a major nuisance,” Vakulenko said. “The next step is whether Ukraine is able to maintain that, or whether Russia is able to deploy effective air defenses everywhere.”