5 Key Questions About Trump’s Big Tariff Week

This may be a week for US president Donald Trump’s efforts to reshape the global trading order, with a promised date on July 9 to reach deals with hundreds of countries that end on Wednesday. That is, unless the new deadline is on August 1, as suggested by many administration officials during the weekend.

If the deadline passes without new developments, it is possible that it means a return to the tariff related to the sky announced by Trump in early April before the retreat after a week after the stock and bonds markets were in the United States. If the deadline is already extended, this may mean another month of commercial cleansing.

This may be a week for US President Donald Trump’s efforts to reshape the global trading order, with a promised date on July 9 to reach deals with hundreds of countries that end on Wednesday. This is, unless the new deadline is on August 1, like many administration officials Proposal During the weekend.

If the deadline passes without new developments, it is possible that it means a return to the tariff related to the sky announced by Trump in early April before the retreat after a week after the stock and bonds markets were in the United States. If the deadline is already extended, this may mean another month of commercial cleansing.

Some trade shocks have already begun: on Monday, Trump said he would decide the 25 percent definitions on Japan and South Korea, one of the largest trading partners in the United States in Asia and Brolos in the American coalition system in that region. Trump explained his approach to trading and security in closing his message to South Korean President Lee Jay Meong: “These definitions may be modified, up or down, depending on our relationship with your country,” Trump wrote. The US President sent additional messages to other countries that threaten high tariff prices, and is preparing to make the official character to the delay until August to obtain the customs tariff to start through an executive order.

However, there are still many unanswered questions about Trump’s policy of trade and tariffs, which adds uncertainty to an American economy Already Companies are struggling to plan investments or a map of supply chain strategies as well as consumers to postpone spending.

The uncertainty that waves on the horizon affects more than just Washington, because the American trade policy Affect Almost the entire global economy. Oxford Economic said on Monday that the return of some grades of American definitions and other measures that publish trade may mean “unusually longing in world trade” until next year.

Here is what we still do not know before the deadline for the return of what Trump called him “to him” is stillEditorial Day “definitions.

1. Is July 9 still the deadline?

maybe. When Trump Temporarily He said he would give countries 90 days to negotiate new trade arrangements with the United States. This stop is officially ended on Wednesday, July 9, and the Trump administration said it had planned to start sending messages on Monday to dozens or so, which determine the return of punitive definitions if the ongoing commercial talks are not concluded. White House Senior Economist Kevin Haysit repeat The importance of the deadline on July 9 during the weekend, saying that he expected a wave of last minute deals.

But this may not be the real deadline, even if he always imposed itself. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessin He said During the weekend, the countries actually had until August 1 to “accelerate things” in talks or face the return of definitions that were first unveiled on April 2, although he added in confusion that the new date “is not a new final date.” However, the return of the highest definitions will become valid on August 1, according to the latest management data.

At least for the largest countries and the blocks that the United States is still trying to reach a kind of commercial deal – including the European Union, Japan, South Korea and India – it seems that, although August 1 is the new date of the circle.

2. What level will the definitions return?

When stopping the controversial tariff in April, Trump left the baseline by 10 percent on each country, but he said that countries will face the highest individual prices if they did not reach an agreement with the United States by July 9. Arbitous rates It was generally in the range of 20 percent to 30 percent, but it rose to 50 percent (although one of the highest rates, a 46 percent tax may be on the goods from Vietnam, may be resolved).

But on Friday, Trump told correspondents that if a customs tariff, if it decreased, it may range to up to 70 percent, although he had not specified any country or countries. This is much higher than the definitions of history already imposed for a short period in April, and it is possible that the deep markets that are completely recovered from their shock in the spring.

In addition to Trump’s comments, there is an additional confusion about the tariff rate that may apply in August if a deal is not reached. For example, the European Union was initially marked with 20 percent definitions under the Trump plan in April. But he later said that European Union exports will face a 50 percent tariff if a deal is not reached, and This possibility The European Union trade officials are still concerned.

3. What kind of “deals” does the administration really make?

Despite the Trump administration’s assurances that it may reach 90 commercial transactions in 90 days, so far, the United States has reached some degree of commercial residence with only three countries: China, the United Kingdom and Vietnam.

With China, the United States reached a limited truce in May, as it temporarily declined from 145 percent of the tariff to a level that is still high but not 30 percent trade, while China has pledged to restore its exports of rare land products that the United States needs in a manner. But it is not clear that even this commercial truce Really stickAnd the American efforts to pressure other commercial partners, such as Vietnam, to Closed China’s ability to direct trade through its countries can restore tensions.

The agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom affects a handful of sectors such as cars and space, but it does not address many urgent issues (such as affecting the broader supply chains used in UK exports of large steel) or reaching any kind of real trade agreement.

that it It is not clear what The United States and Vietnam agreed. In theory, the United States has obtained a customs tariff for its goods, which are shipped to Vietnam, while maintaining the duty of 20 percent on most Vietnamese exports and 40 percent tax on “transportation” from China and other third countries. Nobody knows how to determine the transfer, and the details of the framework agreement are far from the settlement.

He deals with the rest of the world, just two days from the deadline for the apparent negotiation, still must be determined. Talks with Japan and South Korea I hit the wall. It seems that a deal with India, which aims to be a priority for the Trump administration, has fallen into a familiar Red lines. The European Union, the largest commercial partner of the United States, is She is still trying To reach a mini deal, it can be launched from the worst tariff threats, with talks between senior officials last week and over the weekend.

What is still unclear is features Emerging agreementIncluding relief from the customs tariff for sectors of political importance such as cars and reaching Europe for American agricultural commodities, as well as more European concessions on the unprecedented trade unanimously announced by the United States, such as digital organization and tax policy. Europe prepared a retaliatory tariff that would affect a total of about $ 100 billion of goods from the United States to decline against steel, aluminum duties and April tariff, but it kept fire with the continued talks.

4. Is the so -called mutual definitions the only duties that worry about them?

Even with the possibility of three other weeks before the return of the higher global definitions, there are other American commercial barriers awaiting their publication. Trade Department continues seven different Investigations Under Article 232The justification of national security for definitions that are already used for higher import taxes on steel, aluminum and cars, and can be used to raise duties on copper, wood, pharmaceutical preparations, semi -conductors, trucks, jet engines and important minerals.

This means that the Ministry of Commerce can determine that Canadian soft wood imports, for example, represent a cheap threat to American national security; Then in front of Trump 90 days to act in this design, which – if the steel is offered – means additional commercial barriers on the integrated sectors.

As if that was not enough, on Sunday, Trump responded to the conclusion of the Brazilian Brax Summit. to threaten An additional tariff of 10 percent In any country “align” with the Brexes, while Trump called his “anti -United States” position. (Earlier threatened 100 percent of the customs tariff for any of the BRICS members who moved away from relying on the US dollar.)

It is unclear whether this nominal tariff of 10 percent, which apparently applies to the BRICS members – including China and India – but it is also possible, countries that support only multilateral approach, to the front of the other current tariff. It is also not clear under the legal authority that the Trump administration may seek to impose such definitions.

5. Talking about the legal authority, was not the so -called mutual definitions that were struck in court?

She wasThrough a pair of judicial rulings in late May, the administration’s use of emergency authorities ’legislation from Carter Administration was considered illegal reasons for imposing global customs tariffs. but The Court of Appeal ruled Definitions can remain in place during the appeal process; The oral arguments are scheduled to be in this case for the end of July.

While the courts have historically granted the respect of the executive branch on a large scale in national security matters, a sweeping and unprecedented protest in the case of national economic emergency to justify global definitions may test judicial patience. But the administration can also resume any negative judgment, which means that the legality of definitions that may return again on August 1 will remain a question for several months.

But uncertainty is the currency of the Trump world. And now it is simply here for a longer period.