The race to replace Starmer

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Sir Keir Starmer hopes 2026 will mark a revival of his ailing premiership. However, just three weeks into the year, talk within his party has increasingly focused on who will replace him and when.

On Thursday, Independent MP Andrew Gwyn announced his retirement, opening a window of opportunity for Andy Burnham to return to Westminster and challenge the increasingly beleaguered Prime Minister.

Ladbrokes immediately announced Burnham as the 7/2 favorite to take over as Prime Minister by the end of the year.

Others vying for the crown – in the event of a vacancy – include Health Minister Wes Streeting, Home Affairs Minister Shabana Mahmood and former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, according to MPs.

Many of Stretching’s allies have urged him to take a step toward leadership sooner rather than later. “When Wes is awake, he’s organizing, and when he’s asleep, he’s dreaming of organizing,” one MP said.

One minister said Stretching was considering mounting a leadership challenge ahead of nationwide elections in May – despite his team’s denials – and his behavior was angering Starmer’s allies. “There’s a lot of hype around Wes, and it’s not all his fault, but he keeps straying outside his zone,” a Starmer ally said.

Meanwhile, Mahmood is attracting close attention from Rupert Murdoch and other senior executives at News UK – publisher of The Times and The Sun – who have been attracted by her tough stance on immigration, according to a company figure.

In a sign of Starmer’s concerns about a potential leadership challenge, MPs have noted a program of outreach from No 10 and key allies in recent weeks, with the Prime Minister becoming a regular presence in the MPs’ dining room after PMQ meetings every Wednesday.

When Burnham was re-elected as mayor of Greater Manchester in 2021, he declared his role to be “the best job in the world” in a tearful on-stage speech.

But just moments later he was asked whether he still had ambitions to return to a senior position at Westminster. “In the distant future, if the party feels it needs me, I am here and they should reach out to me,” he said.

After years of speculation, that future may now be in front of him.

Burnham’s path back to SW1 remains fraught with obstacles, with a by-election in the Gwynne seat of Gorton and Denton still months away.

Several Labor figures said Labor’s ruling National Executive Committee was likely to bar Burnham from being shortlisted for the seat, given the pro-Starmer majority in the body.

Some Burnham allies argue that Starmer would be taking a political risk if he prevented the mayor from becoming a by-election candidate.

One Labor MP from a seat in the north said: “If Keir prevents him from returning to Westminster, it would make the prime minister look very weak. If they prevent him from running for the seat, it could increase the likelihood of the reformists winning Gorton, and Keir would then be responsible for getting another reformist MP into parliament.”

Steve Wright, general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union, said it would be a “democratic outrage” if Burnham was prevented from seeking selection as a candidate in the by-election: “Our union will vigorously resist any attempts to stitch up selection.”

Burnham, who resigned his seat at Lee University nearly a decade ago to take up his current role, frequently tops opinion polls of both the public and Labor members who have been asked about their preferred Starmer leader.

He has become increasingly outspoken in his criticism of the Labor government as it falters amid unpopular policy turns and decisions.

Ahead of the Labor Party conference in October, Burnham gave a series of interviews that increased speculation about his intentions.

However, his claim that Britain is “overburdened by bond markets” – repeated in a speech to the Institute for Fiscal Studies earlier this week – has been widely ridiculed, including by MPs unconvinced that he has the political or intellectual depth to run the party or the country.

Another frequently heard criticism, according to two MPs, relates to Burnham’s departure from Westminster in 2017 when moderates in the party were battling left-wing leader Jeremy Corbyn.

One said: “The view from some in the tea room is: Wait, just when things got tough, Andy was out the door.” “And now he shows up and wants to take the prize.”

One minister said: “Nothing good will come of it” if Burnham seeks to return to Parliament in a by-election, saying he may not win the seat in the face of a UK reform challenge.

“It would be a huge risk for Andy and a huge distraction for the party,” the minister said. “You also have to remember that Andy is not well known at Westminster among the new MPs. He hasn’t been here for almost a decade.”

If Burnham returns to Westminster, he will still need to convince at least 80 MPs, under party rules, to support him as a challenger to Starmer.

Two northern Labor figures said they believed there was enough to do so, albeit in the belief that Burnham could help “hold their seats” rather than through personal enthusiasm.

“Nobody really knows what a fair analysis is,” one member of parliament said about where the current unrest will lead. But everyone is trying to take advantage of the chaos to get the result they want.”