The Israel-Iran Detente Won’t Last

If there is one streak in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s foreign policy, it is his hard-line stance toward Iran. For decades, he has warned of the dangers posed by nuclear weapons in the hands of the ayatollahs. It is understandable that he sees a regime that chants the phrase “Death to Israel” and prominently displays a countdown clock to Israel’s destruction in central Tehran as a threat to his country’s survival. Israel and Iran have fought a shadow war for many years, and since the massacre by the Iran-backed Hamas movement on October 7, 2023, three bouts of direct confrontation that culminated in a limited 12-day war last June. The conflict shows no signs of ending.

But as sometimes happens in the Middle East, the unexpected happened. As Iran faced widespread unrest caused by high inflation and popular discontent with the regime, Netanyahu, a longtime Iran hawk, backed down. Israel reportedly struck a deal with Iran not to attack the other side, and, along with the Gulf states, helped dissuade US President Donald Trump from bombing Iran this time.

If there is one streak in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s foreign policy, it is his hard-line stance toward Iran. For decades, it has been warning Of the dangers posed by nuclear weapons in the hands of the Ayatollahs. It is understandable that he sees a regime that refrains from doing so:Death to Israel“This is for him Countdown clock His offer to destroy Israel has featured prominently in central Tehran as a threat to his country’s survival. Israel and Iran have fought a shadow war for many years, and since October 7, 2023, A massacre was committed On the part of Iran-backed Hamas, there were three bouts of direct confrontation that culminated in a limited war that lasted 12 days last June. And the conflict He appears There are no signs of ending.

But as sometimes happens in the Middle East, the unexpected happened. Iran also faced widespread unrest stimulate Due to high inflation rates and popular dissatisfaction with the regime, Netanyahu, a long-time Iran hawk, backed down. Reportedly Israel Cut a deal With Iran not to attack the other and side by side Gulf countriesHelp He speaks US President Donald Trump withdraws from bombing Iran this time.

However, Netanyahu’s agreement with Tehran was more of a tactical pause than a game-changer in the ongoing rivalry. This gap is unlikely to last for long, and there are good reasons to believe that the next round of the Iran-Israel war will be larger than before.

Israel had good practical reasons for wanting to postpone another direct confrontation for now. During the 12-day war last summer, Iranian missiles killed at least one 33 people in IsraelMore than 3,500 people were injured, causing at least $1.5 billion In damage. Israeli and American air defenses prevented these numbers from being much higher. However, by the end of the war, Israel’s stock of interceptor missiles—particularly the Advanced Arrow system capable of intercepting ballistic missiles—began to decline. Being a little. In addition, the United States now has Fewer military assets In the region to assist the Israeli defense than it did last summer.

Israel also faces more pressing threats. Israel has Long anxiety Hezbollah, Iran’s main proxy on Israel’s borders, could carry out a similar attack as Hamas did in northern Israel – but on a larger scale. While the Israeli army killed some 4,000 Hezbollah members In its campaign in Lebanon in the fall of 2024, the organization still maintains its influence Tens of thousands Of the fighters. Israel continued To exert military pressure on the group even after the ceasefire entered into force in November 2024, Iran is still passing some 1 billion dollars For the group in 2025, according to US officials.

Pair these practical factors with a general Doubt On whether the air strikes would lead to the collapse of the Iranian regime during the protests, it seemed that Israel had other priorities before entering into another match with Iran.

However, Netanyahu’s calculations may soon change again. Israeli Defense Ministry officials have already promised “Significant accelerationThe Arrow interceptors were produced over the summer, and the Army recently tested the new model Arrow 4 Air defense system. As for Israel’s northern front, it is the Lebanese government give By the end of last year, Hezbollah began disarming, as was agreed upon in the ceasefire to publish its forces south. Netanyahu’s office Named These efforts represent an “encouraging start, but they are far from sufficient.” In other words, Israel will soon face a choice: either allow the disarmament process to proceed or try toFinish the taskMilitarily itself.

Once either option is achieved, Israel’s focus will inevitably shift to Iran. While Israeli and American air operations over the summer led to a decline in the Iranian nuclear program numerous After years or more, the Iranian regime has not abandoned its nuclear ambitions. A a report The Italian Institute for International Political Studies, which published late last year and quoted unnamed sources in Iran, said that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei secretly gave his approval to develop miniature nuclear warheads. While studying at the Institute of Science and International Security That’s it In late November, Iran’s main nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan were “largely destroyed and have seen little significant activity since the war.” last Ratings He noticed a new nuclear site — dubbed Ax Mountain — buried deeper in the ground.

Iran’s nuclear efforts may also enjoy support from external parties, most notably Russia. While Russia officially opposes nuclear proliferation, the Kremlin — which has relied on Iranian drone technology in its war in Ukraine — has repeatedly It has been confirmed Iran’s right to have a peaceful nuclear program, opposing Israeli air strikes in June, leaves open the possibility of helping Iran in any future confrontation with the West. Last September between the two countries I fell A $25 billion deal with Russia’s state nuclear agency Rosatom to build four civilian nuclear reactors in Iran.

Iran is working to strengthen its other military capabilities as well. Reportedly in China last fall It has been shipped Initial components of Iran’s ballistic missile program. In December, a media publication affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps published the report Announce Ballistic missile tests, but official state news later denied this report. Also last month, an Iranian media outlet – citing unnamed military sources – reportedHe claimed That Iran was a job on Chemical and biological Warheads. Separately, Russia Fired Several Iranian communications satellites that are said to serve civilian purposes, although some analysts doubt they have Military job also.

Israel is unlikely to allow Iran’s military power to rebuild unopposed. Even long before the June war, Netanyahu was skeptical that Iran would voluntarily give up its nuclear program, let alone its missile program and the regional groups that act as its proxy. Now that Iran has demonstrated that it is willing and able to attack Israel directly with a barrage of missiles and drones, Israel sees any potential nuclear, biological or chemical weapons as an even greater existential threat. And in Israel after October. 7 Within the strategic mindset, preemptive strike trumps deterrence as the preferred means of dealing with such threats.

Adding to this dynamic is the fact that 2026 is the year election year In Israel. Netanyahu bet on it Political fortunes On ensuring security, especially from Iran. Moreover, he will need to appease his hard-right coalition in order to govern. Indeed, many members are hawks bidder The ceasefire that ended the June war called for a more decisive end. Even if the Netanyahu government falls, it is not clear that there will be more moderate Israeli government He will take a softer stance toward Iran.

Israel spoke publicly about another pre-emptive strike. In late December, he received the Israeli army commander, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir to caution “Iran is the one that financed and armed the strangling ring around Israel and stood behind the plans to destroy it,” adding that Israel will respond “wherever necessary, on both the near and far fronts.” A few days later, Netanyahu I posed The idea of ​​another round of strikes during a visit to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate. Speaking after their meeting, Trump threatened to “Hit the hell out ofIf Iran resumes its nuclear program.

If Israel is indeed considering another strike against Iran, it may come sooner rather than later. Summer war stripped Iran destroyed many of its air defenses and destroyed nearly half of its surface-to-surface missile launchers. While Iran took it upon itself Reconstruction Its air defenses, shortly after the end of the war, had not yet fully recovered from this loss. Like former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani Notice In early December, “the skies over Iran became completely safe for the enemy.” From an operational standpoint, Israel would likely prefer to strike while this window remains open.

This war may also be more extensive than the campaign of last June. Iran and Israel are separated by about 900 miles, which restricts military operations. But one can easily imagine a longer-lasting and more destructive air war. After the 12-day war on Iran to stop Announcing the locations of its stocks of highly enriched uranium, and some analysts He worries Iran can transport materials with relative ease throughout the country. Moreover, if Iran does have a chemical and biological program, it should manufacture these weapons It does not require The same large, specialized infrastructure – such as centrifuge complexes – needed for nuclear weapons, can be produced in a variety of locations. All this means that Israeli targets will not be concentrated in a few large nuclear sites.

Likewise, facilities buried deeper underground – such as Mount Picax – require more powerful explosives to effectively target them. Since Israel does not possess the necessary grenade launchers or munitions, it would need US help to destroy the site, which could expand the scope of the conflict. If American support is not forthcoming, Israel will need it Hit the site again and again Or undertake a risky sabotage mission to destroy it. All of this points to a broader war than last June.

For its part, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard says that Israel will not be able to continue Longer and more expensive election campaign, indicating that it also wants to prolong the war. The possibility of another rapid and relatively lopsided defeat would not only be a blow to Iran’s prestige, but could further weaken the regime’s grip on power. Still reeling from The largest anti-government protests in decadesThe Iranian leadership cannot afford to appear weak.

Of course, nothing is ever guaranteed in the Middle East. If the current protests in Iran reignite or even succeed in overthrowing the regime, that could happen A shift in Iranian foreign policy. On the Israeli side, there is a growing war boredom It may curb politicians’ appetite for another clash. Perhaps Trump will decide so Bombing IranRegardless of Netanyahu’s wishes – or, conversely, he may launch a new campaign to reach a diplomatic settlement. There are other players as well: China, which imports some of it 750,000 barrels One day of Iranian oil, it would no doubt be concerned that war would disrupt its energy supply.

However, indications at the present time indicate that the détente between Iran and Israel will not last long. When it collapses, the next round could be bigger and uglier than the previous ones.