OPEC cuts global oil demand growth forecasts, citing US tariffs

Written by Alex Loler, Olesia Astakova and Vladimir Soldatin

LONDON (Reuters) -OPEC has reduced global demand growth forecast for 2025 on Monday for the first time since December, noting the impact of the data received for the first quarter and commercial tariffs announced by the United States.

The organization of the oil -exporting countries said, in a monthly report, that the demand for the world will increase by 1.30 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per hour in 2026. Both predictions decreased 150,000 barrels per day from last month numbers.

The commercial definitions of US president Donald Trump, as well as a plan to increase production by OPEC+, which includes OPEC and allies like Russia, have been put down pressure on oil prices this month and caused concern about economic growth.

In the report, OPEC has reduced global economic growth forecasts this year to 3.0 % from 3.1 % and reduced next year to 3.1 % of 3.2 %. Last month, OPEC said commercial concerns would contribute to volatility, but it has kept the predictions, saying that the global economy will adapt.

“The global economy has shown a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year, however, the dynamics related to modern trade provided uncertainty higher for global economic growth expectations in the short term,” OPEC said in a report on Monday.

Oil prices maintained a previous profit after the report, as Brent is trading near $ 66 a barrel in the wake of the United States’ exceptions on some definitions. Prices still have decreased more than 10 % so far this month.

OPEC’s oil demand is still at the top of industry expectations and oil use is expected for years, unlike the International Energy Agency, which sees the demand for its peak in this contract while the world turns into cleaner fuel.

IEA is scheduled to update oil demand expectations on Tuesday.

Kazakhstan product rises

The OPEC report also showed that crude production by the broader OPEC+ in March by 37,000 barrels per day to 41.02 million barrels per day due to the discounts made by Nigeria and Iraq.

The group is scheduled to raise production in April and again in May as part of a plan to relax on the latest layer of oil production discounts, which were placed in place to support the market.

But the report also showed, before the scheduled increases, that Kazakhstan, which exceeded its goal in Opec+, increased its production in March 37,000 barrels per day, violating restrictions again.

The production of the Central Asian country increased to 1.852 million barrels last month, higher than the OPEC+ share of 1.468 million barrels per second for January to March.

Last Thursday, the Ministry of Energy said that Kazakhstan exceeded the OPEC+ stake in March, but will fulfill its obligations in April and partially compensate for excessive production earlier, according to the Interfax News Agency.