Oil prices may need to fall another 20% before a ‘Trump put’ stops this year’s slide

president Trump’s desire has passed to drop oil prices so far, as future oils are hovering near their lowest levels for four years.

Some believe in Wall Street that their prices have a lot of decline before the administration is motivated to intervene to support the oil markets in the way in which the prices of successive bonds may be the stimulating of “Trump’s mode” in the form of stopping on the definitions.

“The price hall is much lower,” wrote Natasha Kinieva and her team on Monday.

Unlike the Biden administration, which has reduced negative risks by directing the re -filling of SPR in the United States [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] When WTI prices fell to less than $ 70, the Trump administration is actively seeking to drop oil prices, with unlikely intervention unless the price decreases to $ 50. “

This means that a 20 % decrease in oil prices is from the current levels, as crude oil prices in West Texas Medium (WTI), the American standard, were hovering near $ 61 a barrel on Monday. Brent (BZ = F) sat down crude oil, the international standard, just less than $ 65 a barrel.

Both standards have decreased more than 14 % so far this year as afternoon.

Read more: Latest news and updates on Trump’s tariff

Although President Trump said in February that the United States will fill the strategic reserve – a step that would increase demand, and in theory, no specific timetable has been presented.

Wall Street analyzes have reduced their targeted price for crude in recent weeks, as demand concerns have arisen from an escalating trade war raised by Trump’s tariff policy. Prices were also weight by the organization of the oil exporting countries and their allies, known as Opec+, to vote to increase production next month.

On Monday, JPMorgan reduced the end of the end of the year to Brent to $ 66 a barrel and WTI to $ 62. The company also expected WTI to decrease to less than $ 60 a barrel on the basis of a monthly average starting in August, with the closure of the year at $ 55.

“The American producers will bear the burden of these developments,” Kaneva wrote, expecting a breakdown in production in 2026.

The professionals also highlighted that the high cost of drilling has already caused production of the plateau after the United States produced records of oil last year.

The number of drilling games for the week ended on April 11th showed 567 platforms operating for 598 in 2024, according to Bake Hughes data.

“The pits, the child, the drilling … cannot happen at prices below $ 70 a barrel just because the correction of US oil cannot bear it,” Ed Herz, a senior colleague at Houston University, told Yahoo Finance on Monday.