U.S. could lose $23 billion in GDP and 230,000 jobs if foreign tourists stay away, study says

• It seems that international travel to the United States has decreasedWith reservations for the fall of customs tariffs and more intense for examination, giving potential visitors. The sectors directed towards service such as restaurants and housing will strike larger as the Canadians lead the boycott.

Customs tariffs, canceled visas, improved examination of border crossings and other foreign inspection points may push a pin in their plans to visit the United States this year. The effects can be crowned through the American economy.

A 10 % decrease in international tourism this year – centered on the decline in foreign visitors to the United States by Air in March – costs $ 23 billion in GDP and the equivalent of about 230,000 jobs, according to estimates from senior economists in Jennifer Thorflason.

It will be to eat and housing more difficult, and lose more than 50,000 jobs less than 45,000 jobs, respectively. Entertainment is the next list with an estimated 25,000 lost jobs, followed by retail industries, including gas stations, in 19500.

Lost work income is more than $ 13 billion, including wages, salaries and profits by their owners.

“There is not much automation in the services sectors,” said Thuffaldson luck, “Thus, the effect on employment is a type of large size to reduce spending.”

It is important to note that the decline in March in air traffic has been significantly attributed to the decline in Easter late this year. Foreign expatriates rose in April, which led to a decrease in only 1.6 %, according to Oxford’s economic material.

However, it seems that the number 10 % is a scenario worth modeling, as Oxford expects that international expatriates will decrease by 8.7 % this year, with a slight decrease from its dropping in March by 9.4 %.

It is a blatant reflection of the optimistic view of the industry that is heading to 2025. In December 2024, Oxford expected an increase of 8.8 % in international expatriates and a 16 % increase in spending by foreign tourists. As of last month, the company found that 11 % less flights were seized to the United States for May to July compared to 2024.

“Late reservations may explain a share of this gap-because some travelers may still plan to visit-but it is likely that travelers choose a non-American destination instead or postpone the trip,” wrote Aran Ryan, Director of Industrial Studies in the Economics of Sub-Tourism in Oxford.

Canada leads the boycott of US tourism

This is a direct blow to the service sector, as well as a blow to supply chains, and of course the pocket books for the Americans. For every dollar that is no longer spent by foreign tourists in the United States, an additional $ 1.19 is lost throughout the economy, according to Thorvaldson estimates.

He admitted that it is possible that some expected workers ’layoffs can be avoided by cutting off workers hours. However, the effect on income, and therefore, home spending is still the same.

She said, “It really offers the extent of the connection of everything in this economy.”

Thorvaldson analysis covered the total impact of tourism shock on the United States, instead of chest in local and regional economies. However, popular tourist destinations such as Florida, New York and Las Vegas can be particularly weak.

Many cities on the Canadian border in places such as Washington State are already reel because the Canadians have put the “elbows” and the boycott of the United States in response to president Donald Trump’s hostility to trade and threats to make the northern neighbors of America “state 51”.

According to a survey conducted by Longwoods International, a research company in the Toronto market specializing in tourism, three out of five Canadians said that current American policies, commercial practices and political data make them less likely to travel to America in the next 12 months.

Data from April indicates that this is not just an outbreak, as the number of Canadian visitors from trips to the United States is 35 % on the ground and 20 % by air, according to Oxford. The company expects that the United States will see 20 % less than tourists from Canada in general, followed by a 6 % expected decrease in visitors from Western Europe.

As well as political hostility and border controls more strictly, tourists may also find that they can get a better sensation for their sermon outside the world’s largest economy.

Although the dollar has been weakened since Trump’s chaotic tariff started in early April, it is still strong for many other major currencies. For example, visitors from Japan and Brazil can buy approximately 29 % of US dollars with the yen and real, respectively, compared to the end of 2019.

“Although the costs are only one factor in which travelers think, this represents the opposite wind for travel and the back wind of external travel,” Ryan wrote.

In other words, wealthy Americans may still take out money abroad, but the American economy may take a big blow as foreigners think twice.

This story was originally appeared on Fortune.com

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2025-05-23 18:05:00