Top economist sees scenario where Trump ‘outsmarted all of us’ on tariffs
Companies and consumers are still forgetting about what will happen after that with president Donald Trump’s tariff, but major economists see a way to leave them in their place and still achieve a “victory for the world”.
On Saturday’s note entitled “Is Trump outperformed everyone over the definitions?” , Place the economists in Global Administration, Torstein Saluk, a scenario that keeps the definitions much lower than Trump’s aggressive prices for a long time to reduce uncertainty and avoid the economic damage that comes with it.
“The strategy may be to maintain a 30 % tariff on China and 10 % tariffs on all other countries, then give all 12 months to reduce non -fire barriers and open their economies on trade,” it speculated.
This is that it stopped for 90 days on Trump’s “mutual tariffs”, which led to a tremendous sale of global markets in April, about to end at early next month.
The United States was supposed to aim to give the United States and its trading partners a time to negotiate deals. But regardless of an agreement with the United Kingdom and another short -term agreement with China to retract the prohibited high definitions, a few others have been announced.
Meanwhile, negotiations are continuing with other trade partners. Trump administration officials have said for weeks that the United States is about to reach deals.
On Saturday, Släk said that expanding the deadline for one year will give other countries and American companies more time to adapt to “a new world with a permanently higher tariff.” The extension also will immediately reduce uncertainty, giving a boost to business planning, employment and financial markets.
“This may seem to be a victory for the world, yet it will lead to $ 400 billion in the annual revenue for American taxpayers,” he added. “Commercial partners will be happy with only 10 % of the customs tariffs and US tax revenues will rise. The administration may all overcome.”
SLUNT is noticeable because it looked at the Trump tariff. In April, the definitions warned that it has the ability to run a recession by this summer.
Also in April, before the United States and China reached an agreement to stop the three -number tariffs, he said that the trade war between the two countries would strike American small companies.
More certainty about the definitions would give the federal reserve a clearer vision about inflation as well. Currently, most policy makers are in waiting and vision, as definitions are expected to have stagnation effects. But a division appeared.
The ruler of the Fed, Christopher Waller, said on Friday that economic data can justify low interest rates early next month, with only one time impact of customs tariffs expected. But Mary Dali, San Francisco President, Mary Dali said on Friday that the autumn reduction appears to be more convenient, rather than the reduction in July.
However, Släk is not alone in asking whether Trump’s tariff may not be harmful to the economy and financial markets as you are afraid.
Chris Harvey, head of the property rights strategy at Wells Fargo Securities, expects the customs tariff in a range of 10 % -12 %, low enough to have a little effect, and believes that the S&P 500 rises to 7,007, making it the largest bull in Wall Street.
He added that it is still necessary to make progress in trade and reach deals with large economies such as India, Japan and the European Union. In this way, the markets can focus on the effects of tariffs in the short term.
“Then you can start induction,” CNBC said last month. “Then the market begins to search for things. They start searching for any kind of economic slowdown or weakness, then we start searching for ’26 and not at ’25.”
2025-06-21 17:06:00
