For Israel’s Netanyahu, Will the Iran War Erase the Stain of Oct. 7?

For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the 12 -day war with Iran has a delicious possibility of the “complete victory” that he has long been exposed to in Gaza. In fact, this victory can be what it needs to erase the dark stain in its record of the Hamas massacre on October 7, 2023. This will not only secure his legacy, but with the same importance as important for a permanent politician, it may open the door to another period as prime minister.

But will he do that?

For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the 12 -day war with Iran has a delicious possibility of the “complete victory” that he has long been exposed to in Gaza. In fact, this victory can be what it needs to erase the dark stain in its record of the Hamas massacre on October 7, 2023. This will not only secure his legacy, but with the same importance as important for a permanent politician, it may open the door to another period as prime minister.

But will he do that?

In the United States, a very charged discussion is taking place on whether the Israeli attacks and the United States “have” obliterated “the Iranian nuclear program (as US President Donald Trump insists) or did not do more than delay it for a few months (according to the preliminary results conducted by the US Intelligence Agency). But in Israel, war is seen as great success. Media coverage focused on the achievements of the Israeli Air Force and Mossad. Shekel in the most powerful dollar in more than two years. The local stock market tracks new levels on the assumption that the threat of Iranian nuclear and ballistic missiles has been effectively eliminated, which will improve the political side appearance of Israel. On the Israeli side, the war ended without reported military losses, 28 civilian deaths (compared to expectations in hundreds or even thousands), and limited material damage.

However, so far, there are little signs that Netanyahu has managed to take advantage of the war. In six reliable polls that have been exploited since June 18 (about the time that it was clear that the battle with Iran was going in Israel), the Likud party in Netanyahu witnessed a stumbling block, compared to six survey surveys in the pre -war period. But it was barely dramatic: If the elections are held today, Likud will get 26 seats in Knesateet consisting of 120 members, according to the survey, an increase of 22 seats, but on its way to the bottom of the party that currently owns it. Moreover, some of Likud’s gains came at the expense of its partner in the extremist coalition, a Judaite. The rest came from a newly formed party led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, a right -wing politician, if the polls are correct, it is likely that the next man will form if Nitrano is canceled. But opinion polls show Bennett leaving only two seats, and his chances of forming a better alliance.

Thus, the summary of the saying remains the same as it was before the Iran war. The Netanyahu government-an alliance of the right and wonderful right-wing parties-will not be able to obtain the majority of the Knesset. The opposition (even without the three Arabs -led parties in the Knesset) remains a better position to do so, even when the Prime Minister calls for post -war glow. With the absence of more victories that indicate the advancement, it is unlikely that Netanyahu can benefit from his successes in wartime.

Why did the Israeli public not gather to the Prime Minister? Many have a relationship with Netanyahu himself. In an attempt to escape the blame on the October 7 disaster, he and his allies have to the defense institution for failing to expect Hamas attack and respond quickly enough when he started. Even Netanyahu’s most allies have tried to fram the army’s failure as a work of conscious treachery aimed at toppling the Prime Minister.

The public has never bought this version of events, according to opinion polls, but Netanyahu’s messages had a harmful impact to create a wall between the political and military leadership in the country. They are no longer seen as a team working together to defend Israel. While the elected leaders received bad signs of their wartime performance, the army and intelligence agencies were praised. This gap grew more broadly in the past year after the Defense Foundation defeated Hezbollah in Lebanon and expelled many Iranian air defenses in the dream strikes. It is worth noting that Netanyahu failed to get any political capital, and this is the case today. A survey conducted in mid -June found that the Defense Foundation has the confidence of the public (82 percent in relation to the army), much more than Netanyahu (35 percent) or its government (30 percent). Even right -wing voters expressed greater confidence in the Israeli defense forces compared to the government.

It is tempting to compare Netanyahu Buenston Churchill (it is said that Netanyahu will not do it himself), who led Britain to a historic victory in World War II only to be thrown outside his position shortly after the closing day. There may be some similarities. While the British voters admired the leadership of Churchill in wartime, the conservatives were weighing their previous policies. The Labor Party leader Clement Ateli invites Britain to “win peace” now by better looking at the future that reflects the national mood. Netanyahu not only had the October 7 disaster that weighs it, but also leads a government that is unpopular and deeply intense with the ministers from their depth. These ministers sparked a controversy at the level of the country shortly after taking office with a poorly visualized plan to weaken and politicize the judicial system.

The next Netanyahu’s move is still unclear. The upcoming Israeli elections in October 2026, but his government is unlikely to live until then. It is still under inflammation through the issue of military recruitment to join the luxury, or the Haridim. The two silk parties insist on the coalition to overthrow the government (and they did nearly two days of the start of the Iran war) unless it wins Knesateet on a draft law that will continue to exempt Haridim from the draft. But the exemption is not very popular with non -baseed Israelis, including the alliance base. The government may fall on this issue at some point in the fall. Even if they survive, he faces another difficult test in trying to pass the 2026 budget, which, according to the law, should do by next March. At a time when the Israeli war in Gaza and Iran has caused defensive spending on the balloon, the coalition will face a way to pay all this military spending without taking unimaginable political steps from taxes, cutting civil programs, or increasing spending on deficit – which is widely seen on a large scale.

Netanyahu himself indicated that he has no plans to get out of politics and that he was envisioning another period as prime minister. He talked about “many tasks” to complete and began mixing with voters and sitting in television interviews (friendly media only) after mostly avoided them since October 7. Some of the people close to him were saying immediately after Israel stopped Iran that Netanyahu was weighing early elections. But unless its poll numbers begin to change for the better, this seems to be a risky strategy.

Other analysts say that the Prime Minister wants to add other feathers to his hat before summoning the elections. The first is the end of the war in Gaza, now in the twentieth month, and the restoration of the remaining hostages who are still preserved by Hamas. The second is the normalization of relations with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and bringing them, and perhaps other Arab countries, in Ibrahim’s agreements. Both will be popular with the bloc of the Israeli voters, but the partners of the Netanyahu coalition and a lot of its base will not discuss positively in any of the two scales. Its right -wing partners want to continue the fighting in Gaza with a goal that barely hides it is to expel its Palestinian population and rebuild the Israeli settlements that were evacuated in 2005. They will oppose any gestures towards a Palestinian state, which is likely to be a Saudi situation to clear.

One of the potential scenarios is that Netanyahu begins the ball in these two issues, the right -wing rebels, and/or Hareedim leave the government because of the bill, which led to early elections. He can then raise the issue for voters that he needs another term to end what he started – to gain the launch of all the remaining hostages and secure normalization with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The opposition today is without helpless and divided into four parties of almost equal power, with no clear leader. The new Bennett party may fill the void, but it is too early to say. Savior politicians who go to the new parties tend to rise and fall quickly in Israel. In June 2022, Bennett stepped down a year as prime minister, hated by his right -wing base to agree to a prime minister that included the left and Arab parties. Its strong display in the polls may be more functional in not inspiring alternatives other than Netanyahu and can fade on election day.

In this case, Netanyahu can go out in the early elections, with a weak party but perhaps the largest faction in the Knesset. Bennett recently said that he would not join a government led by Netanyahu, but he and other right -wing people who have kept their distance from the Israeli leader may change their melody after the defeat of the elections, especially if the alternative is to return to the opposition or put the country in more elections. The possibilities are still minimal, but Netanyahu may find himself in the Prime Minister’s office against all expectations.