With tariff headlines around the clock bombing stocks, stagnation or predictions for a sharp economic slowdown in light.
The most amazing one fell today.
PCA Research, Peter Peresin, said he sees a 75 % chance of stagnation in the next three months.
“The traditional estimates reduce the potential impact on the economic activity of the trade war and the Doug’s discounts. This means that growth will slow more than expected,” said Perezin.
Berezin gained late attention to being the only bear in Wall Street that reached 2025. He has the end of the year on the S&P 500 (^GSPC) from 4,450. As of Thursday, it is located on 5,738, after the opening of the year at 5903. Berezin was an economist for more than 30 years, with a work in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Goldman Sachs, and now BCA Research.
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Brezin selects three main foundations for predicting.
First, high definitions define workers’ income, which slows the demand. Second, the poor tariff policy is dealt with, which is to raise the state of public uncertainty and business. Finally, the definitions are likely to be raised on inflation and make the federal reserve less ready to reduce interest rates.
Peresin added, unlike popular perception, the United States is more likely to stagnate than it was in early 2022. At that time, when we were still optimistic about growth, the American economy had a lot of isolation around it: job opportunities were abundant; Families were carrying more than 2 trillion excessive sheets; Many homeowners have responded to very low satisfaction rates. “
JPMorgan’s subjected to Economist Nurra Estevani fell in her own warning this week.
“Our primary line has dealt with the threat of a USMCA tariff as large transactions based on our assessment that the economic damage caused by the high sustainable tariff will be very large – enough to throw Mexican and Canadian economies also in stagnation, as well as our serious damage. Szentivanyi pointed out in a new customer note.
The latest data flow emphasizes the interests of the sparkling market monitors on economic growth.
The consumer confidence index in the conference council decreased for the third month in a row in February. It has achieved the largest monthly decline since August 2021, as inflation forecast – fed by the tariff fears increased.
Signs indicate inflation and prices in general [survey] Responses, but convert the focus towards other topics. Stephanie Jaychard said in the statement that there is a sharp increase in trade and definition signs, to an invisible level since 2019, “Stephanie Gaghsd said in the statement.
“In particular, comments dominated the current administration and its policies on the responses.”
The latest survey of Dallas Bank in February witnessed the production index – a measure of state manufacturing conditions – 21 points from January. The new request index decreased 11 points, and the use of the capacity of 14 points decreased.
The wider commercial circumstances perceived in February as well.
Meanwhile, federal workers’ layoffs at the hands of Elon Musk Dog are clear in the data. The unemployed demands for federal initial work increased by about 1,000 in the recently registered week. Data New Challenger, Gray & Christmas Data 62,000 discounts in government jobs in February.
It was a bad start for the profit season for the largest retailers in America.
He listens: Trump’s tariff may lead to the shock of stagnation
Profit warnings have left as cautious consumers retreat to spending after holidays. Executive executives issued less expectations than the 2025 constellation because they plan for a set of expensive tariffs.
Walmart (WMT) expectations were badly received by investors in mid -February. TARGET (TGT) did not have many good things that could either this week when I reported the results of the fourth quarter and guidance.
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) was shy of estimates; Ditto Best Buy (BBY) and MACY’s (M).
All of these shares were responded in response as investors repaid their expectations in profits.
“We are all dealing with the customs tariff. We are monitoring definition developments on a every hour basis,” told me the CEO of GAP (GAP) Richard Dixon in Yahoo Fund.
The markets moved to start pricing in an economic slowdown.
The S& P 500 (^SPX) index fell to levels before the US elections in November. Nasdaq (^IXIC) and 7 are now great in the technical correction area, or outside 10 % or more than its highest levels. Momntum Stock Darlings Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) decreased by 26 % and 45 %, respectively, of its highest levels ever.
Brian Suzy It is the executive of Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on X and InstagramAnd LinkedIn. Tips about stories? Send an email to Brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.
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