Donald Trump’s India tariff just redrew the map: Who’s winning big, who’s losing badly

When president Donald Trump announced a 25 % comprehensive tariff on Indian imports, as well as a mysterious “punishment”, the spotlight turned to how world trade turned. While many of South Asian neighbors in India expected to gain land, reality is more complicated – much more strategic.

Vietnam: The quiet victor

Thousands of miles from Delhi, Vietnamese exporters calmly celebrate. With only 20 % tariffs on its goods heading to the United States, Vietnam now has a 5+ 5+ Celsius feature on India. But it is not only related to percentage – it relates to timing, sites and preparation.

Vietnam is already competing directly with India in many major sectors: electronics, textiles, seafood (especially shrimp), and processed foods. These sectors account for about 5 % of $ 91 billion exports in India to the United States, and Vietnam is ready to capture them.

Solid supply chains. The American buyer’s relationships are strong. Unlike her regional competitors, Vietnam struck early, as she got a commercial deal before the Customs tariff war escalated. This first feature of the engine is now fruit.

Indonesia and the Philippines: Competitors in a good position

Back closure is Indonesia. Thanks to a commercial agreement in July 2025, Jakarta will face a 19 %-6+ percentage points less than the rate of India, as soon as sanctions are placed in interference with India smaller, at about 1.5 % of exports, but focus on high-value sectors such as textiles, electronics and palm oil.

The Philippines, which were also imprisoned at 19 %, are preparing for the same to make modest gains, especially in clothes and electronics.

Malaysia: a default feature

Malaysia, with a 25 % matching tariff, does not look like a winner – until you remember the additional “penalty” of India. With no luggage, Malaysia acquires a comparative advantage, especially in electronics, as it competes directly with India. However, without a tariff gap, the upper trend is limited.

South Asia: a sudden development

For neighbors in South Asia in India, the tariff war provides a harsh surprise: it is worse than India.

Bangladesh, who was once a large competitor in clothes, faces a 35 % tariff – making its products less competitive than India. The $ 6 billion clothing sector is already pain.

Pakistan is facing a 29 % tariff, which reduces the textile exports of $ 3.6 billion.

Sri Lanka suffers from a 30 % tariff on her clothes exports of $ 1.9 billion.

Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives, and Afghanistan face a modest tariff of 10 % – but have little scope or export with India to benefit.

In the development of the geopolitical paradox, Trump’s introductory war may harm India – but crushes its neighbors. Southeast Asia, especially Vietnam, stands ready to fill the gap in the American market. But for South Asia, India appears unexpectedly stronger, is about to take the market share of its faltering neighbors.