The shock jobs report sets off this recession alert and holds fresh clues that AI may be boosting unemployment, JPMorgan says

The salary statements grew by only 73,000 last month, which is much lower than expectations for about 100,000. At the same time, the May balance has been reduced from 144,000 to 19,000, and the total June has been reduced from 147,000 to 14,000 only, which means that the average profit during the past three months is now only 35,000.

Certainly, weak job numbers do not mean that there are collective hairstyles. Other data sets such as the unemployed demands for the weekly work and the monthly surveys of the jobs again. At the same time, wages and work offers are still high.

“But the comfort obtained from this news is dominated by the slowdown in the slow employment to send a stimulant alert.”

In particular, employment in the private sector has slowed only 52,000 in the past three months, with the stagnation of the sectors outside health and education.

Besides the absence of any signs that unwanted separation is rising due to the immigration policy, this is a strong indication that the commercial demand for employment may cool.

Jpmorgan added: “We have constantly emphasized that the slide in the demand for employment of this size is a warning signal.” “Companies usually maintain employment gains through the growth processes that they consider transient. In the episodes where the demand for employment is sliding with low growth, it is often like a provision for a reduction.”

Currently, the total economic numbers still show expansion, albeit at a slower pace. The gross domestic product is more powerful than expected in the second quarter, reaching 3 %, although the scale that comes out of the impact of foreign trade and instead appears to the final slowdown. In the third quarter, the local GDP tracker in Atlanta, the local product, indicates a slowdown to 2.1 %.

Jpmorgan also warned that the pace of job growth is unlikely to maintain income gains or consumer confidence, which has been bounced in recent months.

Meanwhile, the broader U-6 unemployment scale-which includes people who have not been looking for work recently but are still interested in finding a job as well as people who work part-time part-time and prefer a full-time role-up 0.4 percentage points this year.

On the contrary, the main unemployment rate hardly changed, as it increased in a narrow range between 4 % and 4.2 % for more than a year.

Even Friday shock, this helped give the impression that the labor market was flexible in the face of sharp introductory increases by president Donald Trump.

“We believe that creating job opportunities is no longer appropriately described as strong,” said Jpmorgan. “Along with construction, it is dragged from the trade war, this week’s news supports our view that the Federal Reserve is close to mitigation.”

A separate observation of JPMorgan also highlighted more details buried in the job report that indicates that artificial intelligence has an effect on the labor market.

For example, salary statements in professional services and business services companies were heading to a decrease and decreased by 14,000 last month.

In addition, the unemployment rate for educated workers in the college increased to 2.7 % of 2.5 %, while the total unemployment rate reaches 4.2 % of 4.1 %.

“It seems that the new arrivals are an unusually large share of the unemployed last month,” said Jpmorgan.

This is followed by previous warnings about the use of artificial intelligence, which reduces the need for jobs at the level of entry, which is a decisive starting stone for new university graduates looking to launch their career.

However, last month, Brad Delong argued in a recent article, that the challenges facing young people’s jobs today are mainly driven by the uncertainty in politics on a large scale and the slow-slow-not of artificial intelligence tools.

Understanding leads to delaying companies in making the main decisions, including employment, in the face of an unpredictable political environment, which is equipped by the Trump war unexpectedly.

He wrote: “The aversion to this risk is especially harmful to those who are at the beginning of their career, who depend on a fixed flow of novice openings to get a foot in the door.”