Ray Dalio: ‘Most people are silent’ about US economy due to fear of speaking out

The founder of Bridgewateer Associats, the world’s largest hedge fund with about $ 130 billion under management, said, said about 130 billion dollars in the world. Financial times The current political and economic environment is similar to disturbing dynamics in the thirties and forties. “Most people are silent because they are afraid of revenge if they criticize,” said Dalio.

Dalio’s concerns have a great weight in the financial circles. The 76 -year -old investor built a Bridgeter from his two -bedroom apartment in Manhattan in 1975, when he planted a financial force that runs money for institutional customers including foreign governments, central banks, pension funds and university standing. His investment philosophy, based on the analysis of relations between the cause and the outcome throughout the economic history, has acquired it in recognition that he is one of the most successful hedge fund managers ever.

The postgraduate studies record at Harvard College of Business include a successful mobility in movement in major economic crises, including achieving profit during the collapse of the stock market in 1987. His books on economic principles and market courses have become a basic reading of institutional investors, which gives credibility to his current warnings on US financial health.

Economic reality

Dalio alarm focuses on what he describes as a “heart attack caused by debts in the relatively near future,” which he said could hit the American economy during the next three years. The numbers support its interest: the national debt in America has reached $ 37 trillion as of August, which represents about 124 % of the country’s gross domestic product – unprecedented since World War II. More worrying, congress budget office offers debt to GDP from 100 % in 2025 to 156 % by 2055 if current policies remain unchanged. Interest payments on this debt are increasingly a large share of the federal budget, creating a Dalio -like as a “plaque circulatory system”.

In addition to Dalio’s concerns is the current management approach to the Federal Reserve Independence. President Trump has publicly criticized the President of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell and tried to remove the ruler Lisa Cook, moving European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who recently warned of a “very serious danger” to the global economy.

Dalio specifically cited the government’s decision to obtain a large share in the Intel maker as an example of an increase in the state’s interference in the economy, describing it as part of the “strong authoritarian leadership” that aims to control the financial conditions. He said that such interventions reflect a broader shift towards a kind of economic tyranny that described many of the world during the thirties and forties.

The direct economic scene provides a complex image that may hide deeper structural problems. He ran inflation to 2.7 % as of July, a decrease from its friendly levels, but still is 2 % higher than the Federal Reserve. Unemployment is still relatively low at 4.2 %, although the growth of the last jobs slowly slowed with the addition of only 73,000 jobs in July – the weakest performance for months.

The leading economic index in the conference council decreased for six consecutive months until July, indicating a possible economic weakening in the future. Real GDP is expected to grow only 1.6 % for 2025, slower than historical averages and reflects clouds from the highest interest rates and commercial tensions.

The consequences of silence

Dalio’s warning of the widespread silence between business leaders and investors reflects what many see has a chilling effect on economic discourse. It indicates that the fear of political or economic revenge is to prevent a kind of explicit debate needed to face American financial challenges before it reaches the crisis point.

This dynamic becomes particularly dangerous when considering that previous debt crises often suddenly appear when the investor confidence is eroded. Dalio referred to the experience of British Prime Minister Liz Trus for the year 2022, which reduced its unprofible tax to the extent that the pound fell to its lowest historical levels against the dollar, forcing its resignation.

As the United States approaches what could be a critical period of its financial health, Dalio’s warnings are a reminder that economic stability often depends on the leadership of leaders – both political and financial – in difficult talks about unusual directions. Whether his prediction of a “heart attack caused by debt” proves that accuracy may eventually depend on the penetration of the silence he describes.

To be clear, Dalio is not the first prominent financial leader to warn of the effects of silence the current political climate. “A shame for this administration” after Trump criticized Walmart after the CEO raised concerns about the definitions. Likewise, during an interview with the New York Economics Club earlier this year, CEO of Blackrock Larry Fink said that most of the executives who meet them believe that the United States is in stagnation, but he will not say this in the registry, for fear of political reactions and market repercussions.

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