Investors bet big on September Fed rate cut after inflation, jobs data
There is a little “confirmed things” when it comes to the economy. However, the 100 % interest rate traders are convinced that the reduction will come at the next meeting of the Federal Reserve.
Of course, this means that the markets may put themselves in a world of pain if Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are not convinced of the data they see.
Some factors have very confident markets in the pieces. The first is the labor market, which seems much weaker than previously thought. A group of shapes drew this image, from the slowdown of employment (only 22,000 jobs were added last month) to a large declining review in the roles last year (-911,000 less than previously mentioned).
This means that FOMC’s attention may be forced to return along with the maximum employment of its mandate, forcing it to abandon some of his grip on stable prices and inflation by 2 %.
In fact, the price stability of the authorization may be a little better than expected. Yesterday, the Work Statistics Office participated in the latest update of the PPI, which often acts as lastes of wider inflation directions. The demand fell unexpectedly 0.1 % in August, although prices except food, energy and commercial services increased by 0.3 %, which is the fourth consecutive increase.
However, the marginal increase was not enough to deter investors from their hopes. According to CME GROUP Fedwatch, which tracks investor activity activity, there is a possibility of 0 % of the federal reserve at its meeting later this month.
This morning, 92 % of the analysts were banking on a 25 -bit reduction, while 8 % were banking at 50 bits per second – with a price of 0.0 %.
Copy the details after the details
This feeling, along with the S&P 500 RISING, thanks to the gains from Oracle, led to a “perfect alignment for macro and micro” written by Jim Reed from Deutsche Bank for customers this morning.
He added: “Taking the categories of the product price index feeding on the basic PCE, and investment and medical care services in the governor-American economists see in August to track inflation in August PCE by +0.32 %, in line with pre-PPI expectations. But the market focus was large A space in the federal reserve in the coming months. ”
In UBS, the chief economist Paul Donovan noticed that while Satan is in detail, the markets (and indeed politicians) will use data to stimulate their opinion that the basic price is very restricted.
“There were very high increases in the price of the United States, electronic components, vehicle parts, tires, home textiles, etc.”, note Dunovan. “The profit margins that have been hurting loosely in the data seem to be increasing in areas such as furniture, wholesalers, and retail trade.
“The style in the details, perhaps, is completely unexpected: the high prices as costs and higher margins rise where retailers can create a story that blames the reason that does not represent” greater profit for us. ”
“With inflation data in official consumer prices today, which was released for the month of August, the same problems arise. They are more details than the title that will be important, although politicians will rely on registering points from the main number.”
Whether Jay Powell is thinking about cutting or not in September, it is possible that some couples are “too late” before that.
Here is a snapshot of markets worldwide this morning:
- S & P 500 futures contracts 0.13 % rose this morning.
- Stoxx Europe 600 0.35 % increased in early trading.
- FTSE 100 in the United Kingdom The increase of 0.46 % was in early trading.
- Japan Nikki 225 It was 1.22 %.
- China CSI 300 It was 2.31 %.
- South Korea Cuban It was 0.9 %.
- Elegant India 50 It was 0.15 %.
- Bitcoin It rose to $ 114156.00.
2025-09-11 10:43:00
