Reduced Russian Crude Supplies Boost Oil Prices

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October (October) Oil (ClV25) rises today +0.53 (+0.85 %), and RBOB gasoline rose in October (RBV25) +0.0239 (+1.20 %).

Oil and raw gasoline prices rise to the top of the day, with gasoline spread by more than one week. The weakest dollar today supports energy prices. Also, concerns about the decrease in Russian oil exports enhance prices after Ukraine climbed its unmanned attacks on Russian refineries. In addition, today in the S&P 500 it appears to a new record in economic expectations and supports energy demand and crude prices. The gains in raw are limited after weaker than the United States and Chinese economic news weakness in energy demand.

Ukraine has climbed its attacks on Russian refineries and oil infrastructure, which is optimistic about raw prices because it limits Russian crude exports and tightens global oil supplies. The Kerichi refinery, one of Russia’s largest description of Russia with an annual treatment capacity of more than 20 million tons, has stopped treating crude after damage caused by Ukrainian drone on Sunday. Also, Ukrainian drone attacks have damaged Russian oil infrastructure and raw centers along the Baltic coast in Russia. Ukrainian drones and missiles on Russian refineries were purified to 5.09 million barrels per day in the first 27 days of August, which is the lowest monthly average in more than 3.25 years.

The weakest global economic news is expected today is a declining demand for energy and crude prices. The United States Empire Manufacturing Survey has decreased to public work conditions -20.6 to the lowest level in three months of -8.7, weaker than 5.0 forecasts. Also, industrial production in China Aug +5.2 % increased on an annual basis, weaker than +5.6 % on an annual basis. In addition, the unexpected unemployment rate in China +0.1 increased to the highest level in 6 months by 5.3 %, indicating the weak labor market from non -change forecast at 5.2 %.

A decrease in crude oil that was held all over the world on bullish thunderbolt oil tankers. Vortexa reported today that crude oil stored on tankers that were fixed for at least seven days decreased by -7.2 % w/W to 67.96 million barrels in the week ending September 12.

Crude prices support fears that the ongoing war in Ukraine may lead to additional sanctions on Russian energy exports, which reduces global oil supplies. president Trump said last Friday that his patience with Russian President Putin was “running out” to continue the war in Ukraine, and threatened new economic sanctions against Russia. The United States has suggested that a group of seven allies impose 100 % definitions on China and India to purchase Russian oil in an attempt to persuade Russia to end the war in Ukraine.

Edge geopolitical risks in Europe and the Middle East is fasting for crude prices. The geopolitical tensions in Europe escalated last Wednesday after Poland shot down Russian drones that expressed its lands in Russia’s latest attacks on Ukraine. Also, last Tuesday, Israel launched a blow to Doha, Qatar, targeting Hamas’s high leadership. Qatar said that the attack by Israel violated international law and threatens to expand the conflict in the Middle East, a source of about a third of the global oil supplies.

The crude prices also have support after OPEC+ on September 7 to raise its crude production by 137,000 barrels per day, starting in October. This is less than 547,000 barrels per day. The group’s increase decided to increase production in September and August. OPEC+ also said that restarting the remaining 1.66 million barrels of raw production on the day it had been exposed to in “advanced market conditions”.

Fears about the global oil abundance are landfill in crude prices after the International Energy Agency (IEA) reinforced last Thursday estimating the global crude surplus of 2026 to 3.33 million barrels per day, +360,000 barrels per day higher than expected in August, citing OPEC + plans to revive its crude production.

Fears related to OPEC production are negative for crude prices as Opec+ production enhances production for two years, which gradually leads to a total of 2.2 million points per day of production by September 2026. OPEC+ owns 1.66 million barrels per day to 28.5 million years.

The environmental impact assessment report showed last Wednesday that (1) American crude oil stocks as of September 5 were 3.2 % less than the seasonal average for 5 years, (2) gasoline stocks by -0.6 % less than an average of 5 seasonal years, and (3) distillation stocks by -10.4 % of the seasonal average for a period of 5 years. US crude oil production increased in the week ending 5 by +0.5 % w/s to 13.495 million barrels per day, modestly less than 13.631 million barrels per day published in the week 12/6/2024.

Baker Hughes said last Friday that the number of American oil platforms active in the week ending September 12 rose by +2 to 416 platforms, slightly higher than the level of 410 out of 410 platforms from August 1. Over the past 2.5 years, the number of American oil platforms has fell sharply from the highest level from 627 years from 627 devices in December 2022.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have positions (either directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are only for media purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

2025-09-15 15:38:00

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