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Stocks Narrowly Mixed Ahead of FOMC Decision

The S&P 500 ($ Spy) (SPY) has increased today +0.04 %, as the Dow Jones Industries ($ DowI) (DIA) +0.48 % increased, and the NASDAQ 100 ($ IUXX) index (QQQ) decreased by -0.12 %. Futures increased in September (ESU25) +0.03 %, and future NASDAC decreased in September (NQU25) by -0.18 %.

Stock indexes are mixed today because they are awaiting the results of this day for the FOMC meeting for two days, which ends today. The weakness of the chip makers weighs the broader market, as NVIDIA has informed more than 2 % after it informed the Financial Times that the electronic space management in China, the Internet monitoring in China, has issued instructions to the country’s largest companies to end the requests for NVIDIA RTX Pro 6000D.

Today, American housing news was weaker than expected and negative for shares. The housing matches in Aug -8.5 % m/m to 1.307 million, i.e. weaker than 1.365 million expectations. Aug’s construction permits, a future building agent, decreased unexpectedly by -3.7 % m/m to the lowest level of 5.25 years at 1.312 million, weaker than the increase expectations to 1.370 million.

Mortgage requests in the United States of America increased +29.7 % a week on September 12, with real estate index in mortgage +2.9 % and summer mortgage index increased by +57.7 %. The average fixed mortgage decreased for 20 years -10 basis points to the lowest level in 11 months at 6.39 % from 6.49 % in the previous week.

The markets expect that the Federal Reserve will reduce the target scope of the Federal Reserve Bank by 25 basis points at the end of the FOMC meeting today. However, the markets will focus on the new quarterly interest rate expectations at the Federal Reserve, or DOT plot, to see if the policy makers’ expectations match the market expectations of a total of 70 basis points in prices by the end of the year.

The markets this week will continue to focus on any new or tariff news. Later on today, FOMC is expected to reduce the goal of the federal funds by -25 basis to 4.00 % -4.25 % from 4.25 % -4.50 %, the Federal Reserve will issue quarterly interest rates, and the Federal Reserve Chairman will connect post -FOC meetings. On Thursday, the weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to decrease by -23,000 to 240,000.

Market pricing with a 100 % chance to reduce a rate of -25 basis points and an opportunity by 7 % to reduce an average -50 basis points at the end of the day from the TUE/Wed FOMC meeting. After reducing the average -25 basis points -25 at today’s meeting, markets deduct an opportunity by 86 % to reduce the average -25 basis points at the next FOC meeting on 28-29 October. Markets are pricing in the average rate of amputation in the federal funds rate at the end of the year to 3.64 % of the current 4.33 % average.

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2025-09-17 14:02:00

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