Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize Obsession Isn’t Over

Another year, another failed attempt. US President Donald Trump’s inability to win the Nobel Peace Prize this year was expected. The chances of him winning the award remain slim. However, this latest blow is likely to redouble Trump’s will to win in the coming years, putting renewed energy behind one of the most important and underappreciated forces shaping US foreign policy.

Before Trump’s second election victory, many observers spoke of taking him “seriously but not literally.” This was always a foolish direction, but this was especially true of his apparent obsession with getting a Nobel Prize. Far from mere vanity, this desire will continue to reshape global geopolitics, a point that this latest snub is likely to exacerbate.

Another year, another failed attempt. US President Donald Trump was unable to secure this year Nobel Peace Prize It was expected. The chances of him winning the award remain slim. However, this latest blow is likely to redouble Trump’s will to win in the coming years, putting renewed energy behind one of the most important and underappreciated forces shaping US foreign policy.

Before Trump’s second election victory, many observers spoke of taking him “seriously but not literally.” This was always a foolish direction, but this was especially true of his apparent obsession with getting a Nobel Prize. Far from mere vanity, this desire will continue to reshape global geopolitics, a point that this latest snub is likely to exacerbate.

Trump’s willingness to persuade Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept the Gaza peace deal is only the latest example of the steps he is willing to take to gain peacemaker credentials. An almost identical deal was on the table during former President Joe Biden’s final term in office. But Biden was unwilling to pressure Israel to accept. Trump gambled on the potential glory of the Nobel Prize, and the result was a fragile peace deal.

This month, Trump may make a brief stop at the annual Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Malaysia. Previous US leaders routinely skipped these rallies, sparking predictable domestic outrage. However, Trump sees an opportunity — specifically, to take more credit for mediating border clashes between Cambodia and Thailand. A journalist who burnishes his peace-brokering credentials suddenly makes the trip worthwhile.

While he was doing it The last words Trump said at the United Nations Seven conflicts Which brought him peace. No one is sure specifically which seven countries he was referring to, but these efforts likely include mediation efforts between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, mediated talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and attempts to resume negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo. In each of them, Trump sees an inclination towards accepting the Nobel Prize.

This drive for peacemaking has many positives, as its role in the new Gaza deal suggests. The Trump team is aware of the recognition it seeks, which will lead to new American diplomatic engagement in places where it is rarely received. Across the Global South, governments often lament Washington’s tendency to focus on great power competition, not complex regional conflicts. Now, although self-serving, Trump’s thirst for a Nobel Prize has led to an ongoing interest in conflicts from Central Asia to Central Africa.

However, there are a number of major problems, the most obvious of which is that foreign governments are quickly learning how to exploit this motive. Pakistan provides a clear example. “The Government of Pakistan has decided to formally recommend President Donald J. Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, in recognition of his decisive diplomatic intervention and pivotal leadership during the recent India-Pakistan crisis.” He said In June.

This popular support, in turn, was an important part of a broader process through which Islamabad has intelligently strengthened US-Pakistan relations in recent months. At the same time, US-Indian relations are experiencing their worst period in a decade or more. The result is a major rebalancing of American policy, with potentially major consequences for the role Washington plays in South Asia and beyond.

Foreign leaders understand that Trump prefers photo opportunities over substantive results, allowing them to extract concessions in exchange for cheap gestures. Not only does Washington risk giving up too much, it would likely mean Trump would accept flawed agreements that create the illusion of peace without addressing underlying tensions.

Essentially, Trump seems to believe that the sheer volume of peacemaking initiatives will put pressure on the Nobel Committee. There is no reason to believe this to be true, but it is worth considering the implications of his belief for future American diplomacy.

The Middle East remains the most likely theater for Trump’s prosecution. He and others in his administration remain keen to expand the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia, and broker a deal with Israel with the potential to reshape the regional balance of power.

Trump sees his decision to bomb Iranian nuclear sites in June as part of his broader peacemaking efforts, given the ceasefire that followed. A Saudi breakthrough would not only bolster his view as a historic dealmaker in the Middle East, but would also provide another case study for the dubious prize committee in Oslo.

The Korean Peninsula is the second possible route. North Korea represents unfinished business after Trump’s intermittent and unsuccessful attempts to make progress through talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during Trump’s first term.

In August, Trump met with South Korea’s new president, Lee Jae-myung, at the White House for the first time. He announced during the meeting that he hopes to see Kim “raised this year.” Speculation A possible meeting was held on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit scheduled for this month in South Korea. The chances of Kim traveling to the South are slim, but further American push for peace on the Korean Peninsula seems more likely than not.

Ultimately, it is Trump’s chaotic style of policymaking – his tendency to undermine negotiators, reverse positions, and prioritize personal relationships over process – that will prevent him from winning the prize he so desperately seeks. Nobel committees value sustained diplomacy and lasting change, not stage-managed press conferences.

However, other countries will continue to use these motives to their advantage. This year, I met with a senior Chinese diplomat in Beijing, who graciously discussed Trump’s peacemaking ambitions and their implications for North Korea policy. Behind the seemingly informal conversation lay a clear calculation: China was evaluating how to use its influence over Pyongyang — or weaponize it — in broader negotiations with Washington.

If Beijing is manipulating Trump’s desire for a Nobel Prize, every sophisticated State Department is doing the same. This unique drive for recognition is now a remarkably consistent guide to US policy, and is perhaps the most reliable indicator of the direction in which Washington’s diplomatic energy will flow. In other words, Trump’s peacemaking ambition is now a fundamental variable in international relations – one that must be taken literally and seriously.