China posts 5.2% GDP growth as Trump makes tariff demands

Next month, the pause on tit-for-tat tariffs between China and the US will end, with Washington threatening a 100% increase on Chinese exports to the US. Yesterday afternoon, Trump laid out what he wanted from Chinese officials to avoid that outcome, telling reporters aboard Air Force One: “I want to help China. I’m not going to hurt China, but they have to give us things. I want them to buy soybeans. One of the things I want is that China will buy them.” soybean.”

“I want China to stop using fentanyl, which is very natural. I don’t want them to play the rare earth game with us.”

The president also framed his demands in the context of Chinese companies paying high prices to continue shipping to American consumers. He explained: “I have a very good relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping. We have disagreements on some things. They pay us a lot of money – huge amounts of money in tariffs – and they would probably like it to be lower and we will work on that, but they have to give us some things.”

He continued: “They are paying an incredible amount of money to the United States. Maybe they cannot afford to pay that much money, and I’m OK with that. We can reduce that, but they have to do things for us as well. It’s no longer a one-way street.”

President Trump’s tariff plan is already generating billions for the US government, with many analysts estimating the number at around $350 billion annually. On the other hand, while economists largely agree that economic sanctions will generate significant sums, they are divided on whether foreign companies will bear the costs or whether the increases will simply be passed on to American consumers. The data indicates that the majority of companies plan to pass on their costs.

So while the president can clarify his priorities for negotiations, there is no guarantee that China will listen to him. Indeed, officials in Beijing have been resolute in their rhetoric with the White House so far, with a Commerce Department spokesperson saying just last week: “The repeated threat of high tariffs is not the right approach to dealing with China. China’s position on the tariff war is consistent: We don’t want war, but we aren’t afraid of it.” Meanwhile, China maintains a stranglehold on rare earth minerals that the United States does not possess.

The data is strong for China

Beijing’s position has become stronger due to the accumulation of data in its favor. Rather than growth being hampered by tariffs, China reported this morning that its economy is expanding faster than many expected.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics wrote this morning that GDP in the first three quarters rose 5.2% year-on-year in constant prices. Growth in the third quarter was 4.8%, and although that represents a slowdown, it was still greater than expectations. Breaking this down further, its primary industry rose 3.8% year-on-year, its secondary industry rose 4.9%, and its service industry rose 5.4%. The CSI 300 rose 0.53% on the news.

The report added, “The national economy has shown strong flexibility and vitality.”

By contrast, the United States reported a contraction in the first quarter of the year but growth of 3.8% in the second quarter, according to the latest estimates. However, while measuring GDP is a useful measure of the health of every economy, the strength of the US economy is clear. Looking at GDP per capita, the amount each person actually generates, in China, was just over $13,000 in 2024, while in the United States, it was nearly $86,000.

President Trump previously claimed that China was facing “tremendous difficulties” because of his tariffs. However, Beijing appears to have overtaken the United States simply by focusing on increasing its exports to the rest of the world: diversification has been so successful that the Chinese export market is actually tracking significant growth despite the trade war.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs last week, China’s shipments to the United States fell by 27% in September, the sixth month of 10% declines for its most valuable customers. At the same time, it charted strong growth in regions such as the European Union (which currently operates under a 15% tariff rate from the White House), resulting in exports to non-US countries growing by 14.8%. The shift away from the US means exports actually rose 8.3% in September from a year ago, reaching $328.6 billion, their highest total for 2025 so far.