Top Stories on the Future of Gaza

It is difficult to be optimistic about Gaza’s future. The ceasefire agreement brokered by the Trump administration is holding, but Israel still occupies more than half the territory, and its forces have killed more than 350 Palestinians since a truce was reached on October 10. Meanwhile, Hamas is resurging in Gaza – replacing key leaders killed in the two-year war with Israel; and the execution of its Palestinian opponents; Weapons and fighters were hidden in its network of tunnels, more than half of which remained intact.

So where does that leave Palestinians and Israelis? What does this mean for the rest of the Middle East? At times, armed conflicts in the region have given way to diplomatic breakthroughs. The 1973 Yom Kippur War eventually led to the 1979 peace agreement between Israel and Egypt. The first Palestinian Intifada precipitated the signing of the Oslo Accords in the 1990s. But more often than not, war in the Middle East is followed by periods of instability, chaos, and more violence – all of which rocked Iraq years after the end of the American war.

It is difficult to be optimistic about Gaza’s future. The ceasefire agreement brokered by the Trump administration is holding, but Israel still occupies more than half the territory, and its forces have killed more than 350 Palestinians since a truce was reached on October 10. Meanwhile, Hamas is resurging in Gaza – replacing key leaders killed in the two-year war with Israel; and the execution of its Palestinian opponents; Weapons and fighters were hidden in its network of tunnels, more than half of which remained intact.

So where does that leave Palestinians and Israelis? What does this mean for the rest of the Middle East? At times, armed conflicts in the region have given way to diplomatic breakthroughs. The 1973 Yom Kippur War eventually led to the 1979 peace agreement between Israel and Egypt. The first Palestinian Intifada precipitated the signing of the Oslo Accords in the 1990s. But more often than not, war in the Middle East is followed by periods of instability, chaos, and more violence – all of which rocked Iraq years after the end of the American war.

Here’s what a hopeful scenario might look like. Israelis realize that their enemies are weaker than ever after two years of war, and that their friends, dwindling in numbers but starting with the United States, are less inclined to support their excesses. If the Israeli elections late next year result in a moderate government, this may lead to a more realistic approach in dealing with the Palestinians. On the Palestinian side, Hamas agrees to disarm and dissolve itself, paving the way for Gulf-funded reconstruction of Gaza and full Israeli withdrawal.

But an intelligent observer of the conflict sees flaws in that story. Israel has refused to settle with the Palestinians for a long time before the war. The Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023 shifted the country’s political consensus to the right. Even if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is defeatable – a high possibility at the moment – ​​his successor is likely to be no less hawkish. It seems that Hamas is moving in the other direction: re-imposing its authority in Gaza, not giving it up.

Foreign policyCoverage of the war in Gaza last year included scathing analysis and harsh criticism. In this roundup, we’ve chosen to highlight five articles published in the last ten weeks of the year – since the ceasefire began – that attempt to capture what comes next.

1. Peace in Gaza will not last

By Stephen M. Walt, October 15

Days after the ceasefire was announced, FP columnist Stephen M. Walt describes why the agreement is flawed and how its flaws will doom the peace process to failure. Walt points out that the truce was negotiated without Palestinian input and that its success depends entirely on the United States applying sustained pressure on Israel.

Washington’s record on this front is not stellar. “Unconditional support was bad for the United States and a disaster for Israel,” Walt writes. A policy of “benevolent normalization” would be better for America and better for Israel in the long run.

2. Three calculations will be imposed by the Gaza deal

By Michael J. Koplow, October 13

This article focuses on how the end of the war affected Israeli society and politics. Michael Koplow believes that a reckoning is coming on several fronts, and that the Israelis must decide whether to reach a settlement with the Palestinians or slide into further international isolation. “Israelis will have to develop new ways of explaining their country to Americans, new arguments for why Israel is an important and worthy ally, and new strategies for operating in a world in which American support is not necessarily complete or automatic.”

3. Desperate search for peacekeepers in Gaza

By Aanchal Vohra, November 6

In order to overcome the war and achieve some stability, Gaza needs an international peacekeeping force. But which countries will contribute to this? Arab governments fear being described as cooperating with Israel. Other countries are waiting to see whether Hamas will agree to disarm. Israel has its own conditions.

FP columnist Aanchal Vohra explains that the main obstacle to such a force is the presence of Hamas itself – which shapes any potential mission. Experts said the main question that needs to be answered is whether [international stabilization force] “It will be a peacekeeping or multinational police force expected to fire on Hamas fighters when needed,” she wrote.

4. How does US failure in Iraq haunt Trump’s plan for Gaza?

By Mark Lynch, October 16

After invading Iraq in 2003, the United States appointed American officials whose first steps—dissolving the Iraqi army and ridding the civilian sector of Baathists—made the country ungovernable. Mark Lynch, who has written extensively about the Iraq War, sees a similarity in Gaza. “Even on the path charted by the ceasefire agreement,” he writes, “Gaza is likely to be the site of sustained low-level violence, economic disaster, failed governance, and escalating insurgency, rather than the bright, modern global city promised.”

5. Can the Palestinians trust Donald Trump?

Written by Omar Abdel Rahman, October 10

By brokering an end to the war in Gaza, US President Donald Trump was able to do something his predecessor in the White House had failed to do: persuade Israel to halt its devastating air and ground campaign. But the Palestinians have good reason to doubt the truce guaranteed by Trump and Omar H.

Ar-Rahman argues. “Underlying all of this is a simple idea that makes even the structure of negotiation and phased implementation irrelevant: every concession made by Hamas is irreversible, while every concession made by Israel is reversible,” he writes.

6. Podcast Bonus: What will it take to rebuild Gaza?

By Cameron Abadi and Adam Tooze, October 3

This episode of FP’s Ones and twos The podcast delves into the grim calculus of war: the scale of the devastation and what it will take to rebuild the Gaza Strip, both politically and economically.