Hezbollah Is Down But Not Out – Foreign Policy

After suffering an Israeli strike, Hezbollah is working to renew its severely damaged capabilities. Morgan Ortagus, the US special envoy to the Middle East, was in Beirut last month to pressure Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to disarm the Iran-backed group — but she discovered, if she had not already suspected, that it was easier said than done.

Iran remains the main sponsor of Hezbollah, as confirmed by the US Treasury Department’s announcement today imposing sanctions on activists who transfer Iranian funds to the group. However, besides direct financing from Iran, the group also has its own extensive and independent global financial and procurement networks. If the past is any precedent, Hezbollah will rely heavily on these international networks to recover from recent setbacks. In order to successfully liberate Lebanon from Hezbollah’s iron grip, the United States and the international community must not only support the Lebanese government’s internal disarmament efforts, but also prevent Hezbollah from operating freely abroad.

After suffering an Israeli strike, Hezbollah is working to renew its severely damaged capabilities. Morgan Ortagus, the US special envoy to the Middle East, visited Beirut last month He presses Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to disarm the Iran-backed group — but she discovered, if she hadn’t already suspected, that was easier said than done.

Iran remains Hezbollah’s main sponsor. Today’s announcement by the US Treasury Department also confirmed that it is imposing sanctions on customers who transfer Iranian funds to the group. Aside from direct funding from Iran, Group also The company has its own extensive and independent global financial and purchasing networks. If the past is any precedent, Hezbollah will rely heavily on these international networks to recover from recent setbacks. In order to successfully liberate Lebanon from Hezbollah’s iron grip, the United States and the international community must not only support the Lebanese government’s internal disarmament efforts, but also prevent Hezbollah from operating freely abroad.

Hezbollah’s needs have increased dramatically in the wake of the war it has chosen to start with Israel in 2023. Hezbollah is enthusiastically working to rebuild Its military capabilities have been largely destroyed by Israel Targeted Hezbollah elements and infrastructure. civilian Reconstruction costs It is also worth billions, and Hezbollah’s fans in Shiite southern Lebanon look forward to its continued support for reconstruction and social services.

Hezbollah is struggling to meet its needs Increased financial needsIt is unable to cover the promised reconstruction grants, salaries and benefits for the families of dead and wounded fighters. In one case, Hezbollah issued Deferred compensation checks To rebuild homes, with payments hanging Before most people see any money.

Iran remains committed to providing large-scale support to Hezbollah, but this has proven much more difficult. The Lebanese government has taken steps that were previously unimaginable, Included Preventing Iranian planes from landing in Beirut, inspecting Iranian crews upon their arrival, and ban Lebanese banks and brokerage firms are unable to work with many financial institutions linked to Hezbollah. And nearby, the new regime in Syria as well Collapse Regarding Iranian weapons and money heading to Lebanon and passing through the country.

When short of funds in the past, Hezbollah has relied on its own global networks in Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Americas to supplement Iranian financing. This trend began in earnest after Hezbollah’s 2006 war with Israel, when the party faced a similar rebuilding and rebuilding process. Challenges. Hezbollah expanded its networks further when Iran itself faced financial challenges in 2009 as a result of the combined impact of the Green Revolution, new sanctions, and low oil prices. Hezbollah tapped into its global networks again when its entry into the Syrian civil war increased pressure on its budget.

This time, it appears that Hezbollah has actually turned to Africa and South America to raise funds. Hezbollah has always had a significant presence on both continents. that October 2024 alert The US Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network warned financial institutions that Hezbollah was active in West Africa, where it had a “network of financiers” collecting and laundering money on behalf of the organization. In May, the US State Department issued Rewards for justice Memorandum seeking information about Hezbollah’s financial mechanisms in the tri-border area where Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay meet. The notice said Hezbollah financiers and facilitators operate there — and in other parts of South America — and generate revenue from drug trafficking, money laundering, counterfeiting and smuggling.

Hezbollah also seeks to use its procurement networks and front companies around the world to acquire military and dual-use technologies. in 2024For example, Britain, Germany and Spain disrupted a major Hezbollah operation to purchase components for suicide drones that could carry explosives. The group also sought components and materials from around the world. According to the US Department of Justice, Hezbollah Purchased Chemical precursors suitable for bomb making from a medical device company in Guangzhou, China, As part of offensive planning In Cyprus, Thailand and other places.

To prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding, states should ensure that the group does not exploit their territory. As a starting point, all countries interested in a better future for Lebanon and the Middle East should designate or ban Hezbollah as a terrorist organization—if they have not already done so—and then use the enforcement tools that flow from that designation to eliminate any Hezbollah activity on their soil.

These classifications often include additional powers for law enforcement agencies. In Germany, for example, authorities raided several Hezbollah-linked organizations after Berlin banned the group entirely in 2020. In Brazil, authorities knew of the existence of a Hezbollah financial backer long before he was also discovered to be involved in an attack plot in the country, but preliminary funding evidence was not considered a priority by investigators because Brazil did not designate Hezbollah as a terrorist group. March Rand study It found that the five Latin American countries that classified Hezbollah as a terrorist organization witnessed a decline in the group’s activities, while it continued in countries that have not yet classified the group.

In fact, countries that have not designated Hezbollah as a terrorist organization often lack the tools necessary to investigate, disrupt, and prosecute the group for its activities. This is especially true when it comes to Hezbollah’s weak point: fundraising and procurement. Countries do not need a formal classification to find relevant criminal charges when terrorists plan or carry out attacks, but this is not the case when it comes to illicit fundraising, money transfers, procurement schemes, or other logistical support activities.

Fortunately, several countries have recently classified Hezbollah on the terrorist list. In September, following the visit of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Quito, Ecuador issued a presidential decree hiring Hezbollah, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Hamas are considered terrorist organizations. It was Ecuador The sixth state In Latin America, Hezbollah was blacklisted after Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras and Paraguay. Since 2019, 19 governments around the world have moved to ban, restrict, or designate Hezbollah– A reminder that diplomacy aimed at isolating Hezbollah can be very effective. While diplomats like Ortagus press Beirut to do more to disarm Hezbollah in Lebanon, confronting Hezbollah abroad will depend on countries targeting the party’s systematic funding and procurement efforts.

Thanks to Israel’s amazing successes, Hezbollah has never been weaker. Aoun, the Lebanese Central Bank, and the Lebanese Army have already taken some steps to disarm the group, although this remains a huge task. In disarming Hezbollah, Aoun and his allies need all the help they can get from the international community. If more countries officially recognized Hezbollah as a terrorist organization — rather than a legitimate political party or government actor — it would send a strong message to the group’s supporters around the world, unleash countermeasures to stem the flow of money, and give the Lebanese people hope that their country may escape the perpetual spiral of political violence.

For the first time in decades, there is a real chance to disarm Hezbollah once and for all. Failure to seize it would be a recipe for state failure in Lebanon, renewed war with Israel, and another episode of conflict in the Middle East.