A third of the U.S. economy is already in a recession or at high risk, and another third is stagnating, Zandi warns

In social media publications on Sunday, he said that his assessments of various data groups indicate that countries that represent nearly a third of GDP in the United States are already present in a stagnation or a high risk of slipping into one. Another third is walking in the water, while the last third is still expanding.

Zandy added: “The countries that suffer from stagnation are spread throughout the country, but the most prominent capital region is highly due to government job discounts.” “The southern states are the most powerful in general, but their growth slows down. California and New York, which represent more than five of the GDP, keep them, and their stability is decisive for the national economy to avoid contraction.”

Currently, the GDP in Atlanta Federal Federal Reserve indicates continued growth worldwide, although it is expected to decline to 2.3 % in the third quarter of 3 % in the second quarter.

Here is how states – and one federal region

• -separation: Rawd/high risks
• (22): Wyoming, Montana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Kansas, Massachusetts, Washington, Georgia, New Hampshire, Maryland, Rod Island, Illinois, Dilayer, Virginia, Oregon, Connecticut, South Dakota, New Jersey, Main, Loda, Loda, West Collery County*. Water
• (13): Missouri, Ohio, Hawaii, New Mexico, Alaska, New York, Vermont, Arkansas, California, Tennessee, Nevada, Colorado, Michigan. Expansion

(16): South Carolina, Idaho, Texas, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Alabama, Kentucky, Florida, Nebraska, Indiana, Louisiana, North Dakota, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Utah, and Wisconsin.

Last week, Zandy also put a more accurate point on his expectations. He said that the pioneering recession index in the field of learning in MOODY put in place the chances of contraction in the next 12 months by 49 %.

While tax cuts and government spending on defense should help grow, this will not come until next year. Zandy said the basic situation is that the economy avoids recession, “but not much.”

He added: “The economy will be more vulnerable to stagnation at the end of this year and early next year.” “Then the repercussions of inflation will occur in the higher definitions and the policy of restricted immigration to its climax, which weighs the income of the real family and thus consumer spending.”

Zandy said that the economy, which faces many threats, will not take much to push him to recession, as he photographed a sale in the treasury bond market that would send long -term returns.

Before that, he pointed out that more than half of the industries already abandoned the workers, a sign accompanied by the previous recession.

The salaries were expanded by only 73,000 last month, which is much lower than expectations for about 100,000. At the same time, the May balance has been revised from 144,000 to 19,000, and the June total was reduced from 147,000 to 14,000 only, which means that the average profit during the past three months is now only 35,000.

Since the recent reviews were constantly less, Zandy said he would not be surprised if subsequent reviews showed that employment has already decreased.