What the Modi-Xi Meeting Was Really About – Foreign Policy

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The most prominent events this week: the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi China is visiting for the first time since 2018, research efforts are being made after a A fatal earthquake in East AfghanistanAnd Bangladesh It sets a schedule for the national elections.

In China, Modi seeks to reduce tensions

On Sunday and Monday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited China to the Suma Square of Cooperation Organization (SCO), where Chinese President Xi Jinping met. The two leaders pledged to look at each other as partners instead of competitors, and Modi said that he and something “reaffirmed our commitment to cooperation.”

Moody’s first trip in China seven years; The words of transitional leaders; The warm body language between the two is an amazing development. Just five years ago, a deadly border clash between India and China fell into the constraint of relations to its lowest level in decades.

It is tempting to conclude, as some observers did, to deteriorate the relations of the United States and India (especially the 50 percent definitions that have recently slapped India) prompted New Delhi to correct things with Beijing. In fact, Moody’s visit is the culmination of a year -old effort between the two sides to reduce tensions. The United States-India New Delhi’s ties gives a strong reason to accelerate this death.

Shortly after a takhil clash, India and China began a military dialogue to a frequent military to reduce border tensions. But the indicators on the melting of the ice started seriously when it chose the border talks last summer. Almost at the same time, the chief economic consultant in India talked about the importance of bringing more Chinese investments to India, which decreased after the conflict in Laqim.

In October 2024, India and China concluded a border deal that resumed patrols. In January, the two sides agreed to work to resume direct flights, and in March-before the relations between the United States and India arrived in the south-Modi announced that the border had been normalized and called for wider cooperation.

Certainly the transformation in the relationship between the United States and India has created economic and strategic incentives for New Delhi to reduce pressure with Beijing. With the high US tariffs that are highly low in reaching one of the largest export markets, India will, of course, want to increase its trade relations with China. Amid the uncertainty about our willingness to partnership with India to confront the Chinese authority, New Delhi has a good cause of hedge.

US President Donald Trump did not explain a clear policy towards China in his second term. Sometimes, the administration indicated the desire to follow its costs with Beijing. As a result, the United States may not terrifyly not to increase the increase in the chili between India and China.

In any case, the idea of ​​reset Chinese Indoil: The situation remains tense along many of the disputed borders, which is a major source of confidence. China maintains a deep alliance with Pakistan, while India’s relations with its competitor and neighbor reached a low point after a conflict in May, during which Pakistan published Chinese -made weapons.

India and China also have basic differences, including the long presence of Dalai Lama-the spiritual leader of Tibet-in India, India’s growing relations with Taiwan, and building Chinese dams on common rivers.

However, there is a risk that should worry the Trump administration. One thing that India and China agrees is the multiplicity of colors and the importance of multilateral groups that seek to confront American authority in the global order. If India continues to confront the customs tariffs, it may work closely with China and Russia – and its colleagues in groups such as Sco and Brics, in an attempt to develop new economic mechanisms, such as new banks, which circumvent the US dollar.

This is the fear that prompted Trump to threaten the definitions of the BRICS members; So far, two BRICS states – India and Brazil – have obtained the highest American graphics during the Trump era.

Washington officials are unlikely to look at Moody’s visit to China with great concern. But it reflects the melting of the ice in the Chinese-Indian relations that are now preparing to accelerate in the wake of Trump’s movements even if the two remain strategic competitors.

What we are following

An earthquake in Afghanistan. Search efforts are taking place in eastern Afghanistan this week after a 6.0 -magnitude earthquake shook late Sunday night local time. The earthquake center was near the city of Jalalabad, not far from the border with Pakistan. By Tuesday, the death toll passed by 1,400 people.

Afghanistan is not alien to earthquakes, which collectively demanded several thousand lives in the country in the past few years. The last tragedy will focus attention on the restrictions of the Taliban regime in responding to humanitarian crises. The donors have reduced aid to Afghanistan significantly since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.

However, when it comes to natural disasters, Afghanistan can rely on support from the international community. The US government provided assistance after the 2022 earthquake. UN agencies and the International Red Cross on the basis of helping rescue efforts, although the Taliban say they still need more assistance.

The timetable for the election of Bangladesh. The Bangladesh Electoral Committee issued an official time frame for the country’s upcoming elections, which are scheduled in the first half of February. This will be a relief to the Bangladesh audience, and many of them are keen to see that the election plans are going on the right path.

The depletion of patience with the interim government, which distinguished one year in the position last month, grows amid economic tension and challenges for law and order. However, when I was in Dhaka last week, the interlocutors indicated that a group of major players – from a new political party headed by student leaders in the protest movement last year for some members of the interim government – had been late in the elections.

However, it appears that the other important stakeholders, including the military commander and Muhammad Yunus, are committed to seeing the elections through. The chance of angry street protests and the resulting instability if it does not occur.

Economic growth in India. India has released economic growth data for the first quarter of the fiscal year (April to June), and the numbers are impressive. The country’s gross domestic product has grown by 7.8 percent during that period, which represents the highest rate in more than a year and exceeded the predictions of many observers – including the State Bank in India. The growth of the registered manufacturing sector by 7.7 percent; The critical industry has witnessed uneven performance in recent months.

Indian economists attribute the high growth of expected exports in the United States that are shipped before the new customs duties in India enter into force, as well as baccalaureates in domestic demand, low inflation rates, widespread government spending, and a strong service sector. Many Indians believe that the latest data is Trump’s criticism of India, which he called “the dead economy”.

The numbers should provide a batch for New Delhi, but good news may be passing. A combination of the effects of customs tariffs and established economic challenges may lead to a decrease in growth later this year. The chief economist in India, V. Anantha Nageswaran, said that he maintains his total growth expectations for the year between 6.3 percent and 6.8 percent.

Read the most read this week

Under the radar

Last month, India and China reached an agreement to resume border trade along three different roads – as part of your continuous materials. One of these roads includes a Lipulekh Corridor, a strategic space disputed by both India and Nepal.

As a result, the routine border trade decision apparently sparked anger in Kathmandu that managed to unify leaders across the political spectrum in Nepal – a rare development given the famous policy in the country.

This episode highlights the geopolitical challenge that Nepal is facing as a small country between Asian giants. It aims to balance relations with both India and China – cure partners – but also has its share of grievances against them. How to convey these concerns, taking care not to give them, requires skilled and sensitive diplomacy.