If the Fed cuts interest rates today it may be the last round of cheaper money until June 2026

• January: 72.2%
• March: 55.8%
• April: 47.6%

Only in June did a majority emerge – 41.9% – demanding an additional reduction to 3.25%.

Analysts are everywhere in their guesses about how many additional rounds of cheap money the Fed will deliver next year, and for good reason: president Trump is set to replace Powell with a new Fed chair in May.

“We see the Fed cutting rates twice in 2026, with moves in March and June,” said James Knightley of ING. et alHe argued earlier this month. Additionally, “the prospect of a more dovish Federal Open Market Committee pushes the risk toward additional interest rate cuts later in the year.”

“But does this matter, given that we know the Fed’s structure is changing?” Knightley wrote.

At Deutsche Bank, the forecast is “another cut of 25 basis points in both 2026 and 2027.”

Pantheon’s macroeconomic guess is three cuts, “We expect 75 basis points of easing in 2026, but fiscal policy and FOMC staff changes cloud the outlook.”

The presumed favorite candidate for the new Fed chairman is Kevin Hassett, who is widely viewed as a “dove” who will follow Trump’s preference for low interest rates regardless of rising inflation. But there are three others in the running: Fed Governors Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller and Michael Bowman, and Rick Reeder, chief investment officer at global fixed income firm BlackRock.

It is uncertain whether the new appointee will push the FOMC into a more dovish stance (favoring further cuts) or whether the Fed’s institutional commitment to apolitical economics will prevail, meaning a slower schedule of cuts or perhaps — if inflation continues to rise — nothing at all.

ING’s Knightley noted that by the end of 2026, “five of the seven members of the Board of Governors could be Trump appointees.” In other words, the Fed is about to become more unpredictable.

Stock markets are largely flat today, as investors await the interest rate decision. It will be Powell’s comment – and whether or not he says certain words – that will move markets this afternoon. S&P 500 futures were flat this morning ahead of the open after the index closed flat yesterday.

Here’s a quick snapshot of the markets before the opening bell in New York this morning:

• Standard & Poor’s 500 futures It was flat this morning. The last session closed with a marginal decline of 0.09%.
• Stokes Europe 600 It fell by 0.12% in early trading.
• UK FTSE 100 index It rose 0.29% in early trading.
• Japan Nikki 225 Decreased by 0.1%.
• China CSI 300 Decreased by 0.14%.
• South Korea Cosby Decreased by 0.21%.
• India Stylish 50’s Decreased by 0.32%.
• Bitcoin It was at $92,000.