Elon Musk predicts ‘agonizingly slow’ Cybercab and Optimus production rollout

Production of the company’s planned Cybercab robot car and its Optimus humanoid robots will “accelerate” more slowly than expected, Musk said Tuesday, even as he sells investors a future powered by artificial intelligence and automation.

In response to a post from content creator and Tesla investor Sawyer Merritt, in which he noted that the Cybercab is scheduled to begin production in less than 100 days, Musk signaled a warning.

With the important caveat, primary production is always very slow and follows an S curve.

The speed of the production ramp is inversely proportional to the number of new parts and steps present.

For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so early production…

– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 20, 2026

“Primary production is always very slow and follows an S-shaped curve,” Musk said. “The speed of the production ramp is inversely proportional to the number of new parts and steps present.”

He noted that for some of Tesla’s most innovative products, such as the Cybercab and Optimus, this pattern is especially true.

“Almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be painfully slow, but eventually it will be insanely fast,” he said.

Musk previously said the self-driving Cybercab would begin production in April 2026. He also said that “low-end production” of Optimus robots would begin by 2025 so they could be used in Tesla factories. He said “higher production” of Optimus robots would “hopefully” come in 2026, allowing other companies to use the robots in their own factories.

Tesla did not immediately respond luckRequest for comment.

Tesla’s past of missing production timelines

Even for Tesla, which has spent years optimizing mass production of electric vehicles, timelines often differ from reality. In 2017, Musk pushed Tesla workers into what he called “production hell” to meet his goal of producing 5,000 Model 3 cars per week by December 2017, then 10,000 cars per week in 2018. However, the company only met the goal of producing 5,000 Model 3 cars per week in the summer of 2018.

Musk’s latest post in

This narrative has helped Tesla differentiate itself from other electric car makers such as BYD, Volkswagen, and BMW, as demand for electric cars declines and price competition continues. Partly due to Musk’s lofty vision, the company’s stock price recovered to an all-time closing high of $481 in December after falling to half that price earlier in March. Tesla shares closed about 3% higher at $431 as of Wednesday.

To be sure, the pace of production may be as important as the promise to investors. A slow rollout could delay any meaningful revenue contribution from Tesla’s automated cars or humanoid robots. While Musk has promised that Optimus will one day make up 80% of Tesla’s value, its core business of selling cars is still where the money comes from for now.

However, Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries of 418,200 vehicles were slightly below analysts’ expectations of 422,900 vehicles. Tesla’s lower-priced Standard Model 3 and Model Y vehicles carried shipments and slightly exceeded expectations, while its other models fell short of thousands of deliveries, according to a note by Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.

Tesla faces increasing competition for its vehicles and slowing demand, especially for some models, including the Cybertruck. Musk warned last year that president Donald Trump’s halt to the tax credit for electric vehicles could also lead to “some tough quarters” for the company.

However, Tesla’s fourth-quarter results were not as bad as some expected, Ives wrote in the note. Additionally, its growing energy business and entry into more niche markets to offset setbacks in China and Europe could signal a “step in the right direction” for the company looking ahead to 2026.

“We believe Tesla could reach a market cap of $2 trillion over the next year, and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by the end of 2026… as full-scale production begins with the self-driving and robotics roadmap,” Ives wrote.