Written by Naomi Rovnik and Emana Cooper
LONDON (Reuters) -Global markets narrate conflicting stories about the long -term impact on American definitions on growth, the defection that investors say means that stocks or bonds can see a sharp correction as soon as it is clear.
It seems that US President Donald Trump’s approach to commercial policy that has generated many fluctuations earlier this year has left the markets cautioning against responding to his daily ads about who, or what might have definitions.
The last goal is Canada, which Trump said on Thursday will face a 35 % duty, while most other trading partners will get a 15 % blanket tariff or 20 %, which barely raises flap in the wider markets. An announcement of an imminent Europe.
Investors say that this apparent pavement is no less than confidence in a long -term benign look, and more typical for the late Taurus market, as optimists stood to arrest the gathering before it fades, while the consultants are quietly preparing for the most difficult times in the future.
In one angle there are more dangerous assets such as arrows and cryptocurrencies. The shares in Wall Street have achieved record levels, supported by artificial intelligence and the possibility of a series of discounts in the interest rate of the Federal Reserve, gradually slowing the economy and proving the blow to inflation from the customs tariff so far. Bitcoin is located near the record $ 112,000.
In the other corner, there are governmental ties, gold and even crude oil, all of which reflect the belief that definitions can hinder the American economy and grow everywhere.
Neil Pearl, chief investment official in Metone, said that the second half of this year will be when the Trump tariff effect becomes clear.
He said: “It is difficult for me to look at all this in any form of confidence or certainty,” referring to the inability to predict the manufacture of policies in Trump and the potential impact of its “beautiful, beautiful bill.”
His main interest in stocks was the participation of high American families in Wall Street, where the decline can spread rapidly worldwide.
“Any stress in the American economy affects the consumer and then affects the stock markets that becomes a somewhat brutal and bloody spiral.”
The 90 -day Trump pause was replaced after the announcement of the “Liberation Day” tariff on April 2 by applying a scatter of fees on the big and small commercial partners, before the profit season in the second quarter, which may result in the first evidence about the danger of achieving corporate profits.
“Things have settled, but not in a positive way,” the international head of Amuundi said to Macaro Pradhan.
“The effective tariff rate for all imports coming to the United States, if you calculate an average in all areas, it will be about 15 %,” he said. “This is widely negative for growth in every country participating in global trade.”
Last month, the World Bank reduced its global growth forecast for 2025 by four tenths from a percentage to 2.3 %, saying that high definitions and increased uncertainty have constituted a “great windy wind” for almost all economies.
With a lot of uncertainty hanging on American assets, investors’ money flowed elsewhere in most of this year, to the likes of European stocks, bonds, golden stocks, Chinese technology, or emerging market currencies.
The wheels of the stock market march were awaiting that parliament Speaker Jerome Powell from Trump to provide a quick series of price cuts.
However, the data was so powerful that it does not justify an aggressive dilution of monetary policy and very gentle in saying that the customs tariff had no effect. American recruitment numbers show that the economy still creates job opportunities in a fixed section, while commercial activity polls show that factories and services put a mark.
Meanwhile, Trump’s tax reduction and historical spending will add an additional 3.3 trillion dollars to the national deficit.
US Treasury revenues decreased for 10 years (^TNX) from the peak of 15 months in January by 4.8 % to 4.35 %.
“The bonds are more focused on growth (decline) more than inflation, so when you see a victory in the ads of trade war, bonds tend to decrease in growth and price discounts. But stocks encouraged because the definitions have not appeared in inflation numbers yet,” said Justa Van Leaders, senior asset asset expert in Van Sitsiot Kimben.
“We don’t think this can continue,” he said, adding that he is still neutral in stocks, with a small situation in government bond age.
Gold (GC = F) organized 26 % this year, reaching 3300 dollars an ounce, as it was a hedge against total and geopolitical uncertainty, as well as an alternative to the dollar, which is the largest tariff, which lost more than 10 % of the value this year against a basket of currencies.
Kevin Those, a member of the investment committee in the French Asset Director, Carmegnek, said that he sur it against the decline in the US stock market, but he believes this is now unlikely that retail traders are dived into the purchase of market decreases.
Moreover, he said that Trump’s tax reduction bill may compensate for some of the effects of definitions, but the additional debts that the financing of these cuts may require can pay the treasury return for 10 years to 5 % in the next three months, a level that the policy makers worry because of its impact on families, companies and the government.
“We see large cracks in the American market, although the Federal Reserve has a wide space to cut,” he said.
(I participated in the reports of Amanda Cooper and Naomi Rovenik; edited by Eileen Hardkasle)
