Import slide continues after early peak

Week scheme: Inbound Ocean Teus Volume Index – USA Sonar: IOTI.USA

The US -related container reservations (IOSI) has decreased by 20 % over the past six weeks, indicating that importers may have fully used inventory concerns in the early year. After collapsing in May, imports rose early when the president stopped a 145 % tariff for Chinese goods. Now, it seems that companies are trying to avoid other inventory waste as questions continue about consumer health. What does this mean for transportation markets for the rest of the year?

On the source, one of the biggest shifts was the constant withdrawal from China. Import reservations from China to the United States decreased by 25 % on an annual basis, while Vietnam is one of the few countries that show annual growth from last week.

However, China compensates for a lot of decline, as total export reservations remain almost flat compared to 2024, according to sonar data. Prefabbed meals are that global trade flows are quickly adapting to Trump’s ongoing negotiations, forcing transport companies to restore balance in commercial corridors. This may eventually affect service levels with the transformation of time tables and the increase in empty sailing.

The slowdown in imports has not yet reached the entire local market, because reservations data represent containers is still two to four weeks from reaching American ports. For example, China’s shipments to Los Angeles currently take about 16-17 days, based on published transit times.

Multimedia is still the most directly related to imports. The trucks bent over the railway over the past year, as it provides longer times and an additional arrangement. With warehouse costs rapidly, many trucks use container as “moving storage” to make up for the costs of keeping stocks.

The sizes of loaded – local and international containers are currently in line with last year, while the truck load tender sizes decreased about 15 %. If the import volumes continue to corrosion, then the multimedia demand, especially for international containers, may weaken more in the coming months. The truck load market was less affected, as the trucks relied more on shorter transport operations, as the railway provides limited save or interest.

Supply chains remain interactive, and a balance between the purchases towards the source with the uncertain demand. The result was a hybrid strategy: maintaining a small temporary store of stock while avoiding the type of abundance seen in early 2022.

The LEMI indicator (LMI) indicates inventory levels that expand more quickly this year compared to the first seven months of 2024. Some of this growth is a defensive arrangement, but it is likely to reflect some weakest demand. Import reservations data that enhances the idea that companies are facing a softer demand in general.