Apple to lead smartphone shipments in 2025 for first time since 2011

Apple smartphone Shipments in 2025 are expected to overtake Samsung’s for the first time in more than a decade and become the world’s leading smartphone seller, according to a new report.

An analysis by Counterpoint Research found that global smartphone shipments will rise 3.3% year over year in 2025, with Apple leading most of the gains.

iPhone shipments It is expected to rise by 10% year-on-year in 2025, partly due to growing demand for the iPhone 17 series in key regions.

Counterpoint expects Apple’s shipments to reach 19.4% in 2025, which would make Apple the world’s leading smartphone manufacturer for the first time since 2011.

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Samsung shipments It is expected to grow by 4.6% year-on-year and reach a global share of 18.7%, falling from first place for the first time in more than a decade.

“Besides the very positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the main driver behind the improved shipping outlook is that the replacement cycle has reached its inflection point,” said Yang Wang, senior analyst.

“Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering the upgrade phase. Furthermore, 358 million used iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years.”

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That rule Consumer demand It is expected to help Apple maintain its newly regained lead among smartphone manufacturers through 2029, according to the analysis.

Samsung’s strategic move to the A-series is expected to boost momentum in emerging markets with its stronger specifications and competitive pricing, while in mature markets, Samsung’s move to premium offerings is expected to help it defend market share, Counterpoint forecast.

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Samsung is expected to see strong growth in shipments despite being overtaken by Apple, Counterpoint said. (Seungjun Cho/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Chinese smartphone manufacturers It is expected to rely more heavily on foreign markets to stimulate growth, while also moving into higher-priced segments with premium features to enhance profitability.

Diversification should allow Chinese manufacturers to boost their revenues, while their ranking in terms of shipments is expected to remain steady through 2029, Counterpoint said.

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