Are Trump’s Ultimatums to Putin Real?

US president Donald Trump gave Russian President Vladimir Putin a very clear warning: Agree to the ceasefire in Ukraine by August 8 or face more severe economic sanctions-including “secondary definitions” by up to 100 percent for foreign buyers of Russian oil.

But since Trump’s statement, there was only a small mark of the Kremlin on anything that resembles a significant movement towards ending the war. Whether the Russians bombed prisoners or civilians in queues for humanitarian aid, Putin’s war on Ukraine is deadly as it was always.

US President Donald Trump gave Russian President Vladimir Putin a very clear warning: Agree to the ceasefire in Ukraine by August 8 or face more severe economic sanctions-including “secondary definitions” by up to 100 percent for foreign buyers of Russian oil.

But since Trump’s statement, there was only a small mark of the Kremlin on anything that resembles a significant movement towards ending the war. Whether the Russians bombed prisoners or civilians in queues for humanitarian aid, Putin’s war on Ukraine is deadly as it was always.

Since Trump has reached power in January, the conflict expanded, as Russia has now used drones to hit parts of the war that has not been largely touched by the war.

With the deadline set and the war is still raging, the conversation between Western security officials has turned into what is happening if Trump retracted.

“Targeting foreign buyers [of Russian oil] One of the leading NATO senior NATO said it is correct to do, but there are many reasons that Trump does not want to do so. He may harm his commercial conversations with China; This may cause high oil prices to pay the Americans. This is the right thing to do, but you cannot do it free from Scottish. “

Trump’s critics point to his tendency to go out, especially with Putin. “This is not the first warning that Putin gave, and every time, there was a kind of dribbling, so I will not put a very weight on him,” said Bill Broder, an American financier and a prominent Putin critic.

With August 8, there is no sign that Russia is back away from the war, officials and experts already think about what may happen if Trump is escalating again when the payment comes.

“If he does nothing, Putin gets a green light to continue to implement this war exactly as is already with his maximum goals without change,” said Broder. “This means adhering to his belief that the West will finally get tired and can win attrition. The number of forces he loses in this process does not matter because his position is not under the threat.”

Proder and others who spoke to them pointed out that how Putin behaves when an American president determines the warning and then fails to follow up is a well -known factor. In 2013, Barack Obama President at the time failed to pursue the promise of the “red line” in Syria-and Putin’s escalation in response.

Obama said in 2012 that if a Syrian dictator and Putin ally Bashar al -Assad used chemical weapons on citizens, the United States will have no choice but to intervene, probably with air strikes to support local rebel groups trying to overthrow Assad.

When the United States eventually took any action after reports of chemical attacks in the years after that, Putin saw an opportunity and used Russia’s military force to recount Syria’s opponents. He crushed Assad’s opposition and created the void of power that was filled with joy by extremist groups, including the Islamic State.

The Obama’s decision not only wrapped the tide in Syria, but also had wider effects on political geography.

He said: “Obama talked about air strikes with European allies who supported this measure. When he fell, he had an impact on Syria in favor of avoiding escalation.” “European allies reduced Syria’s classification and left the door wide open to Putin to seal his authority in the country and in the wider region.”

Many have written by experts and journalists about how Putin has used Syria as a weapons and tactical test land that has been used since then in Ukraine. The destruction of civil infrastructure, cities that bring together carpets and safe weapons roads from conflict areas are tactics that have been used in Syria and Ukraine.

These tactics are not simply not related to the defeat of the Ukrainian army, but also about the frustration of the population and the creation of the impression of Western supporters that Ukraine is about to fall, which makes these supporters believe that giving Putin a deal on his conditions is inevitable.

“The political war is less important, especially since they cannot defeat Ukraine as they imagined,” said the Ukrainian security source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “Of course, to pressure the impression that Russia is not defeated.”

Trump has moved greatly from his first improved Russia since he took office first. It is clear that his patience with Putin was apparently happy to prepare as Ukraine gets high -level weapons of European NATO allies. But even the recent US President’s criticism did not prevent Putin from bombing Ukraine.

With all the eyes now on August 8, there are deep doubts among Ukrainian experts who will punish Trump enough in a short stop. Worse than that, many in the country fear that Trump’s speech can inspire Putin to further escalation.

“Each time, Trump’s roaming, they bomb more civilians – a collective Shah [drone] The Ukrainian source said: “The raids began after his weak responses.”

“I find it difficult to believe that Trump will punish Putin with full power. I cannot see him punishing China or India with a 100 percent secondary tariff to buy Russian oil. Bociurkiw added:” unfortunately, I think this means that Putin will continue to harvest Ukraine with drones and missiles With more gains on the confrontation line. “

By giving a fixed deadline, Trump drew a line in the sand. If, on August 8, Putin actually tells that enough interface to the world is not only economic sanctions but also greater military support for Ukraine, the line may mean something. If Trump rotates and fills again, he tells Putin, as Obama did in 2013, he can do what he wants without any repercussions.