Armenia-Azerbaijan Deal Starts New Era in South Caucasus

August 8 meeting in Washington between Armenian Prime Minister Nicole Pashinan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, a mark of the toilets in the ongoing struggle over decades between the neighbors of South Caucasus has been marked. The two countries signed a framework agreement that could lead to the end of the conflict that precedes their independence from the Soviet Union, the opening of regional trade and investment deals, and the inclusion of the United States as an important representative in a region dominated by Russia, Turkey and Iran.

Months in this matter, the initial deal is one of the largest Washington invasions in the post -Soviet field. His signature holds the popular narration that the Trump administration is seeking to withdraw the United States from international obligations or relinquish the field of influence to the Kremlin. At the same time, the deal remains incomplete and holds real risks – both for the region and the United States.

August 8 meeting in Washington between Armenian Prime Minister Nicole Pashinan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, a mark of the toilets in the ongoing struggle over decades between the neighbors of South Caucasus has been marked. The two countries signed a framework agreement that could lead to the end of the conflict that precedes their independence from the Soviet Union, the opening of regional trade and investment deals, and the inclusion of the United States as an important representative in a region dominated by Russia, Turkey and Iran.

Months in this matter, the initial deal is one of the largest Washington invasions in the post -Soviet field. His signature holds the popular narration that the Trump administration is seeking to withdraw the United States from international obligations or relinquish the field of influence to the Kremlin. At the same time, the deal remains incomplete and holds real risks – both for the region and the United States.

The framework agreement indicates that both sides realize that the time has come to seek a permanent peace that cannot end the conflict between Baku and Weirvan, but rather overpowering the geographical and political retail that led to the longing of the Southern Caucasus for a long time. According to an official participating in this effort, the Trump administration expects the final peace treaty to be signed and ratified by the end of 2026. However, this ambition succeeds, however, all parties-including the United States-should follow their obligations while addressing some of the questions that are still not customized.

The struggle between Armenia and Azerbaijan was a permanent reason for the southern Caucasus and strategic marginalization. It also enabled the Russian hegemony of the region, as Moscow has sought to prevent any final decision since the 1990s, forcing Baku and Yeripan to look at the Kremlin as judgment and security. Russian participation prevented the conflict from escalation, but also prevented a permanent decision that would allow the two countries to take over their future.

Azerbaijan’s overwhelming victory in Nagorno Karabakh’s Second War in 2020, followed by the resettlement of the remaining parts of Nagorno Karabakh in late 2023, created a new reality mainly. For his tremendous credit, Pashinyan realized that the overwhelming military defeat, the loss of Nagorno Karabakh, and the trips of its Armenian population are not only the need for peace, but also an opportunity to search for a permanent end of the conflict. While Yerevan was keen on the peace agreement, Baku has long looked hesitant. Azerbaijani leadership realized that it carries the strongest cards and could press maximum demands.

However, the outlines of the peace agreement were clear for some time: mutual recognition of regional integrity (including Azerbaijan’s control over the former Nagorno Karabakh), the demarcation of borders, the abandonment of legal allegations, and diplomatic normalization. Baku and Yerivan announced in March that they had agreed to the outlines of a deal on these conditions. Now, Armenia and Azerbaijan – with American assistance – was to overcome the framework agreement to establish a permanent peace treaty.

However, there are still many major problems that must be addressed. There were two issues that clarified the negotiations, namely, Baku’s request to a corridor throughout the Armenian lands that link the main part of Azerbaijan to Misk Nakhshivan and the changes in the Armenian constitution that would ensure that the future Armenian governments accepted the loss of Nagorno-Krabakh. National mobilization against Armenia is still an important source of a legal strategy on the political.

The issue of the corridor was particularly difficult. None of the two sides wanted to secure the crossing path, as they were supposed to do according to the conditions of the ceasefire in 2020. Armenia rejected any external presence that led to his sovereignty, while Azerbaijan demanded that he arrived in Nakhshivan. Azerbaijani threats to control the road and the surrounding Armenian lands did not help matters. There was a major component of Washington diplomacy behind the scenes is a proposal for the United States to demand exclusive development rights to the corridor.

A complete peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan would bring tremendous benefits to people in the region – everything by guarding against another war. It would protect Azerbaijan from any revival of the problem of Karabakh, while securing Armenia from threatening the Azerbaijani aggression to seize the crossing road to Nakhshivan. As part of the comprehensive deal, Azerbaijan will get a closer strategic partnership with the United States, which promises energy and infrastructure investments-including fiber cable by fiber by saying-and removing the restrictions imposed on the defense cooperation that can strengthen the country’s hand against regional and Russian trips. Armenia will also benefit from the close security cooperation with the United States and the final opening of its borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey, which has been closed since the first war of Nagorno Karabakh in the 1990s.

With the opening of the borders, Armenia can benefit from integration in the regional trade and cross -crossing networks that it has long been over. The normalization of Armenia Torke’s relationship can be followed quickly, despite tensions with roots dating back to the late Ottoman era, especially because of Armenian killing by the Ottoman forces during the First World War.

Opening the borders and facilitating crossing would help overcome the long southern Caucasus, which makes the region more attractive as a roll between Europe and Asia. More benefits will accumulate from the ability to expand trade and investment along the alleged central corridor from China via Central Asia and through the Caspian Sea to Europe. The construction of the Middle East, which will reduce, among other benefits, would reduce the influence of Russia across the post -Soviet Union, was one of Washington’s goals in the long term.

Despite the clear benefit that the permanent deal would bring Baku and Ervan and the wider area, the front track is still fraught. Keeping both Armenia and Azerbaijan on board until the treaty and certification will require continuous care. Baku can be connected if it is believed that the promised benefits are not imminent-for example, if the perceived removal of the current restrictions on security cooperation in Aserbaijan US-Azerbaijan is facing a problem with the Capitol Hill. While the Pashinian government is committed to agreement, the political fluctuations in Armenia – including an alleged coup attempt by the opponents of the deal – also causes Yerevan problems as well.

The framework agreement also leaves many Armenian concerns without treatment. This includes the implementation of the provisions of the framework agreement on regional integrity, which will require the Azerbaijani forces to withdraw from the fragments of the Armenian lands that they still control, and a final settlement to the status of the Army refugees in Karabakh, and to demand a constitutional change. The confidence between the Armenians and the Azerbaijanis is low, the product of three decades of conflict and demonic. The peace process was from top to bottom so far; Getting support from below to civil society and ordinary people will be much longer in both countries.

Another challenge stems from Washington’s decision to include itself in the region more. Both Russia and Iran even see the presence of the United States of Commercial there are unidual. It seems that Russian strikes on Azerbaijani energy origins in Ukraine after the signing ceremony of the White House seem to be indicating the Kremlin’s dissatisfaction. Iran has also made a notification that it would not tolerate an American presence in the region.

Currently, the talented war in Russia in Ukraine has provided the United States and other external authorities to refer an opportunity to change the facts on the ground in an area that Moscow still considers the backyard. Local observers still feel nervous that Russia’s aspirations for regional domination were not faded and that the increasingly increasingly military Kremlin will seek to settle accounts in the Caucasus (and other places) once its forces are liberated from fighting in Ukraine.

Moscow has participated in a war of words with Baku in recent months after the flight of Azerbaijan Airways passengers by the Russian Air Defense, which has killed 38 people. Meanwhile, Bashinian supporters are accused of Moscow of having a hand in cutting to bring down the Armenian leader. Russia also maintains other businesses in Armenia, including the position leader in the country’s economy, controlling critical infrastructure (such as the only nuclear power station in the country), and networks of influence in the Armenian Apostolic Church.

The White House hopes to provide a mixture of American business and enhance the security cooperation of Baku and Yerivan is enough to prevent either Moscow or Tehran from challenging the new dispensation. This gambling may bear fruit; If not, it will remain an open issue whether Washington will risk conflict with Russia or Iran in the Caucasus.

Even with these concerns, the Armenia Azerbaijan framework agreement is an important step towards ending one of the most bitter conflicts in the region. Reaching this point of courage political in Baku and Yerivan, as well as stability and creativity from the United States (and from France, helped to alleviate the Armenian security concerns throughout the operation). In one way or another, the agreement indicates the beginning of a new era in the southern Caucasus.

The views expressed in this article are the views of the author, not a policy or official position for the National Defense University, the Ministry of Defense, or the US government.