As the Mideast unites around Gaza ceasefire, Iran is at one of its weakest moments since 1979

Tehran has run its self-described “axis of resistance” for several decades, supporting armed groups and their allied countries against Israel and the United States. But when Israel bombed the Gaza Strip, it also directed its aim at senior leaders abroad in militant groups such as Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and even the top levels within Iran’s military and nuclear program, killing many and crippling their ability to fight.

As president Donald Trump prepares for a tour of the Middle East that is likely to see praise from Israel and Arab countries, Iran will not be at the table as it is still struggling to recover from the 12-day June war.

How Tehran’s theocratic regime responds in the coming weeks and months, whether that means attacking or trying to rebuild its faltering economy at home, will be crucial.

“There is no doubt that this is not a proud moment for Iran,” said Ali Fayez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group. He added: “Its alliance system in the region is in ruins, but this does not mean that the ‘axis of resistance’ no longer exists.”

“Like a broke gambler”

Iranian state media has sought to describe the Gaza ceasefire as a victory for Hamas, despite the war that has devastated the Gaza Strip and killed more than 67,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants but says about half of the dead are women and children.

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcomed “any decision… that ensures the cessation of the genocide of Palestinians.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi confirmed this on Saturday, telling state television that Hamas had decided to accept the deal and that Tehran “always supports any plan and any measure that leads to stopping crimes and genocide” by Israel against the people of Gaza.

But perhaps more tellingly, an adviser to Iran’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei suggested that a ceasefire would only lead to conflict elsewhere in the region.

“The start of a ceasefire in Gaza may be the behind-the-scenes end of a ceasefire elsewhere!” Ali Akbar Velayati, an advisor to Khamenei, wrote on the X, referring to Hezbollah and the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and Iraq.

Fear of further Israeli strikes, especially on Iran, remains sharp in the public’s mind, as Israel likely destroyed much of Iran’s air defenses in June. Khamenei did not resume his usual routine of delivering weekly speeches to the masses. Without explanation, Iran avoided holding a major military ceremony marking the end of the Iran-Iraq war in September, which usually sees top officials viewing drones and missile launchers.

The Iranian economy also suffered under international sanctions and with the decline in global energy prices.

“Iran has always focused on its interests, we no longer have resources, and our economy has weakened,” said Saeed Laylaz, a Tehran-based analyst. “Our support for Hamas was a response to the United States shifting conflicts beyond our borders.”

Others are less optimistic.

“Iran is like a broke gambler after winning some small money in the first rounds,” said Amir Kazemi, a university student in Tehran. “When Hamas attacked Israel, Iran was happy about it. But now, after the ceasefire, Iran has nothing in its pocket.”

The Middle East looks very different

In the years immediately following the Iranian revolution, its theocracy sought to export its Shiite revolutionary ideology more widely in the Middle East. After its devastating war with Iraq in the 1980s, this turned into a greater effort to provide a level of deterrence, as the surrounding Arab countries purchased advanced American bombs, warplanes, and tanks that Tehran was unable to access due to sanctions.

The US military presence across the Persian Gulf also expanded in the wake of the 1991 Gulf War, as Arab countries granted base rights to US forces, sparking Tehran’s continued anger.

The heyday of the “axis of resistance” came in the chaotic years that followed the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and Yemen’s subsequent collapse into civil war. After that, it can rely on Hezbollah, Syrian autocrat Bashar al-Assad, the Houthis, Iraqi armed groups, and even Hamas – a Sunni militant group.

Today, the Middle East looks completely different.

In Syria, rebels ousted Assad last year, and Israeli strikes killed Hezbollah and senior Hamas leaders, while Iraqi militant groups faded into the background. Although the Houthis in Yemen are still able to launch attacks on Israel and commercial ships in the Red Sea corridor, they now find themselves targeted by increasingly precise Israeli strikes.

The 12-day war in June is likely to lead Iran to stop enriching uranium for its nuclear program, which the West has long feared could be turned into a weapon.

“Collapse of regional influence”

Meanwhile, Iran has yet to receive any significant support from China or Russia, despite supplying Beijing with potentially discounted oil and Moscow with drones it is using in its war on Ukraine. Tehran has also refrained from confronting women who are increasingly abandoning the hijab, or head covering, and instead executed prisoners it already holds at a rate not seen in decades.

“The ceasefire reflects the collapse of Tehran’s regional influence after the disintegration of the powerful ‘axis of resistance’ since 2024,” said Ali Fathollahnejad, director of the Berlin-based Center for the Middle East and World Order. “The ceasefire will free up Israeli military capabilities that will now be used against Iranian interests – whether in Lebanon against Hezbollah or directly against Iran.”

For his part, Trump took advantage of Iran’s acceptance of the ceasefire and described it as “wonderful” news. However, there has been no movement toward renewing public negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear program.

“Time is not on Iran’s side,” Fayez said, “but their problem is that no one gives them an actual way out.” But whether Tehran will take the plunge also remains in question, with its leaders still debating which direction to take now.

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