As the War in Gaza Winds Down Between Israel and Hamas, the West Bank Is a Flash Point

Celebrations are undoubtedly in order as the ceasefire comes into force in Gaza, the hostages are returned, and humanitarian relief is delivered to the Palestinian civilian population. US President Donald Trump and his envoys deserve praise because they reached an agreement that had been on the table for more than a year but had eluded the parties. Palestinians and Israelis deserve a chance to breathe.

However, this would be a missed opportunity to return to diplomatic complacency and lose momentum. Even if this phase of the Gaza deal is implemented properly – which is not a given, given the parties’ deep suspicions – risks are rising elsewhere. Indeed, without a firmer hand from the Trump administration to slow Israel’s annexation policies there, hopes of expanding the Gaza agreement to anything close to regional peace could easily fade.

Celebrations are undoubtedly in order as the ceasefire comes into force in Gaza, the hostages are returned, and humanitarian relief is delivered to the Palestinian civilian population. US President Donald Trump and his envoys deserve praise because they reached an agreement that had been on the table for more than a year but had eluded the parties. Palestinians and Israelis deserve a chance to breathe.

However, this would be a missed opportunity to return to diplomatic complacency and lose momentum. Even if this phase of the Gaza deal is implemented properly – which is not a given, given the parties’ deep suspicions – risks are rising elsewhere. Indeed, without a firmer hand from the Trump administration to slow Israel’s annexation policies there, hopes of expanding the Gaza agreement to anything close to regional peace could easily fade.

Several months before Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, one of us warned of the possibility of a third intifada in the West Bank. Since then, conditions have worsened considerably, as Palestinian and Israeli violence and increased settlement activity undermine stability and peacemaking efforts.

Consider the following salient facts. Before October 2023, there were 190 outposts in the West Bank, that is, 190 emerging settlements that were established without going through Israeli legal procedures. Between October 2023 and today, Israel has established 114 additional settlement outposts. Each new settlement site, whether a residential community or an agricultural farm, requires depriving Palestinians in the West Bank of additional land.

During this same period, at least 11 previously unlicensed outposts were retroactively “legitimized” by the Israeli government; 68 agricultural sites received full infrastructure support. To implement these measures, Israel confiscated approximately 13,600 acres (55,000 dunums) of Palestinian land, declaring some of it “state land,” issued more than 100 military confiscation orders, and increased buffer zones around existing settlements.

Perhaps most importantly, the plan to develop the E1 area between Jerusalem and the Maale Adumim settlement was revived and approved by the Higher Planning Committee in late August of this year. On September 11, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signed the plan at a ceremonial ceremony. The E1 project requires the construction of 3,400 housing units. It would effectively bisect the West Bank and make territorial contiguity between the north and south of the West Bank almost impossible – adding another obstacle to the prospects of a Palestinian state.

All administrations have succeeded so far in pressuring Israel not to build in the E1 area. But not this time. When Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced the intention to move forward with the E1 project on August 14, a US State Department spokesman said: “Stabilizing the West Bank keeps Israel safe, and is consistent with this administration’s goal of achieving peace in the region.” US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said that the United States “does not oppose” the project and does not consider it a violation of international law. He said that decisions regarding E1 “belong to the government of Israel.”

While all this was happening—during the war in Gaza, the Israeli attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Israeli and American attacks on Iran’s nuclear program—the security situation in the West Bank deteriorated considerably. Palestinian violence led to the deaths of 41 Israelis in the West Bank and 17 Israelis inside Israel. Many of these attacks were carried out by individuals in so-called lone wolf actions. Other attacks were carried out by armed groups such as the Lions’ Den and the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades.

In response, the Israeli military carried out about 7,500 raids in 2025 alone. Since 2023, more than 20,000 Palestinians have been arrested and 999 Palestinians have been killed – 967 by Israeli forces and more than 20 by Israeli settlers. The United Nations estimates that militant Israeli settlers precipitated more than 3,000 incidents.

In short, while all eyes are on the fragile but welcome ceasefire and hostage release in Gaza, the West Bank is simmering. Israeli and Palestinian leaders welcomed what could be an end to the war in Gaza. But extremist elements within both communities – including Israeli government ministers – have expressed their opposition to the Gaza deal. They will demand “compensation,” which could take the form of more settlement activity as the price for remaining in the coalition. Meanwhile, Palestinian extremists in the West Bank could vent their anger toward Israel and the Palestinian Authority over a deal that appears to have achieved Israel’s goals in the war.

It is not too late to stop the slide toward war in the West Bank, but it will require more determined and intelligent leadership than what happened in Gaza. Israel must be forced to reduce settler violence and impose law and order within the settlement community. Land confiscation must stop, as must retroactive legislation linking the West Bank to Israel. The E1 project should not be implemented.

On the Palestinian side, the Palestinian Authority must muster the necessary force to suppress groups engaged in acts of violence and terrorism. Security cooperation against these groups must be revitalized. The Palestinian Authority must begin governing outside Ramallah.

Perhaps the greatest uncertainty is whether the Trump administration is up to the task. The administration has said or done nothing to indicate that any of Israel’s policies there raise any concern. In fact, Trump rolled back sanctions imposed by former President Joe Biden on Israeli settlers and said little about increased settlement activity. The fact that the US ambassador to Israel has a history of statements supporting the annexation policy did not help matters. If the president is really serious about peace, he cannot allow Gaza first to just be Gaza.

This means reaffirming policies against settlements and against E1. It means establishing a political horizon for Israelis and Palestinians. This means acting with the same determination in the West Bank that he showed in Gaza. One and done is not an option.

The path to creating a better path for Israelis and Palestinians has always been difficult, and it will not be easy to move forward. Without continued American leadership and the willingness to pressure leaders in Israel and Palestine to make difficult decisions, peace will not be achieved. Indeed, without US determination, we will likely end up in a cycle of endless rinse-and-rinse promises of confrontation, terror, and violence.