At this rate, measles could become endemic again within 2 decades, researchers warn

The frequency of measles in the United States, including a situation in Texas, which recently had more than 620 people and killed at least two children, continuously decreased in childhood vaccination rates. If they continue to decline, a new study warns, as it may pave the way for measles – and for German morning and polio as well.

But even if the vaccine rates remain at the current rates, measles may again become a settlement (trading in the United States) within two decades – and it occurs more quickly even with another small decrease in fortification rates. Just a small increase, though, would prevent this.

Therefore, the study researchers led by Stanford Medicine, which was published on April 24, said American Medical Association Magazine.

“We have seen a disturbing pattern of reducing routine childhood vaccines,” Nathan Le Lu said in a press release. “There has been a disruption of health care services during the epidemic, but the declines have preceded this period and accelerated since then for many reasons. People look around and say,“ We ​​do not see these diseases. Why should we pursue against them? “There is general fatigue with vaccines.

Robert F. Kennedy Junior, an intellectual leader in this field is Robert F. Kennedy, Minister of Health and Humanitarian Services, who established the defense of the health of non -profit children in order to study the relationship between routine childhood vaccines and chronic diseases in this country. Last week, he publicly pledged to reach the bottom of the “toxins” that caused autism specifically, although he referred to one of the potential perpetrators as “drugs” instead of vaccines.

The researchers behind the new study – which also included scientists from Baylor College of Medicine, Rice University and the University of Texas A & M – exchanged the investigation because they were curious about when the effects of decline in vaccines would be felt.

Lu said: “Specifically, we wanted to look at some of the main diseases that were eliminated from the United States through vaccination, which means that they do not spread inside the country continuously. This measles include polio, blood measles and cameras, which can have terrible complications, such as paralysis of life, birth defects and death.”

To do this, they used a wide -ranging epidemic model to simulate all Americans, and then simulated how infections will spread under various vaccine conditions.

In the end, Lu said, “You see a continuous and continuous transition, which means that these diseases become a settlement – they become home names again.”

With measles – one of the most infectious diseases, and more infectious than what others considered in this study – the researchers found that the United States was “already on the edge of the disaster”, Lu said.

He explained that “the vaccination rates remained the same,” the model predicts that measles may become settlement within about 20 years. This means an estimated 851300 cases over a period of 25 years, which leads to 170,200 hospitals and 2550 deaths. “The measles are also more common in the world, so travelers are likely to restore it, and the MMR vaccine (measles, mumps, measles) is one of the most controversial meeting,” is partly due to a history of fraudulent medical research that sparked safety concerns. ”

But other diseases, which researchers found, are unlikely to become a settlement under current vaccination rates.

If the vaccination rates will decrease further, things will look more clear.

The lead author Matthew Kiang said that measles will descend to 11.1 million over the next 25 years if vaccine rates decrease even by 10 %. And if these rates are reduced in half, he said: “We expected 51.2 million measles, 9.9 million of German measles, 4.3 million cases of polio and 200 cases of paralysis paralysis.

Kiang warned: “The measles will become settlement in less than five years, and the pill will become in less than 20 years.” “Under these circumstances, polio became settler in about half of the simulation in about 20 years.”

In such a scenario, the researchers note that most of them are at risk will be non -imprisoned individuals, including unqualified children yet to obtain the first MMR dose (which is offered in 12 months), as well as people with immunodeficiency.

Lu parents encouraged vaccines to discuss the case with the pediatrician “and the faith of our health care providers.”

“It should be noted that there should be no cases at this stage, because these diseases can be prevented. Anything is higher than zero tragic. When you talk about thousands or millions, this is something that cannot be understood,” Kiang added.

More about measles:

• With the spread of measles throughout the United States, here is how to know if you need a reinforced snapshot
• The first death of the United States in the United States in more than a decade: an unbeatable child dies in the Texas outbreak, which suffers from more than 120 people.
• RFK JR. Vitamin A and cod liver? Health experts warn that the move is “the misleading of the audience”

This story was originally appeared on Fortune.com

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2025-04-24 15:24:00