Big Oil could cut share buybacks as crude prices slump, investors fear

When Exxon Mobil and Chevron compares the results of the first quarter this week, investors will focus on how to increase oil prices from the risk of profit distributions and exchange of rebuilding for the rest of 2025.

Big Oil has made money returning to investors through profits and exchanging restarting the strategic cornerstone of her efforts to attract Wall Street. The global tariffs of US President Donald Trump have sparked fears of recession and the weakest demand for oil, prompting predictors to reduce their expectations in oil prices.

Low prices will give large oil less money to distribute to shareholders.

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Big Oil has made money returning to investors through profits and exchanging restarting the strategic cornerstone of her efforts to attract Wall Street. (Getty Images / Getty Images)

“We believe that the quarterly results will be angry with the front expectations, given the disturbances in the commodity market,” said Paul Cheng, an analyst at ScotiaBank.

Analysts in research notes this month said that investors will search for companies to describe how they planned to overcome continuous low oil prices, and may have been eliminated by re -purchase, or reduce spending on projects or benefit from monetary stocks.

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Exxon and Chevron reports, the largest producers of the United States of America, on Friday, and both are expected to transfer an increase in profit from the fourth quarter. Analysts expect a profit of $ 1.73 per share for Exxon and $ 2.18 per share for Chevron, according to LSEG data.

Exxon and Chevron, the largest American oil producers, reported on Friday. (Istock / Istock)

Brent global crude prices amounted to $ 74.98 a barrel during the quarter-month of January, an increase of 1.3 % over the previous quarter. American natural gas prices increased 30 %.

On April 2, oil prices began a free decrease after Trump announced the definitions of commercial partners.

Oil now hovers about $ 66 a barrel, which led analysts to a scenario model where prices remain in the 1960s this year or even a decline to $ 50.

So far in April, the average Brent prices reached $ 66.79 a barrel. During the month, the US Energy Information Administration sharply reduced price forecasts from $ 74.22 a barrel to $ 67.87 in 2025. In 2026, EIA now expects the average price of $ 61.48, a decrease from 68.47 dollars.

Analysts from four companies said that Chevron may reduce re -purchases if weak oil prices continue. The second largest oil company in the United States had previously directed the re -allocation of annual stocks between 10 billion dollars and 20 billion dollars.

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The company reaches up to 3 billion dollars in costs and lay off up to 8,000 employees.

Analysts said that the UK -based BP company may have to reduce the shares of shares as well, which will increase the pressure on its already weak shares.

The BP logo was seen outside the gasoline station on September 23, 2021 in London, England. (Photo by Lyon Neil/Getty Emociz) ((Photo by Lyon Neil / Getty Emachur) / Getty Emociz)

Chevron requires the price of $ 95 to cover stock profits and purchases compared to $ 88 for Exxon, according to RBC Capital Markets. The two companies can cover profits alone with prices in the mid -fifties.

Assuming that the price of Brent is worth $ 60 in 2025, Bank of America’s international research analysts will purchase $ 11 billion in shares this year, at the low end of the company’s guidelines, with Exxon to buy about $ 13.5 billion, less than its directives of $ 20 billion.

Analysts have agreed from at least three companies that Exxon is in a stronger position to maintain stock profits and share a re -purchase, pointing to the surplus of money on the public budget and efforts to reduce the cost of oil and gas production. Exxon said it expects to reproduce $ 20 billion from shares annually until 2026, and last year she paid $ 16.7 billion of profits.

Chevron requires the price of $ 95 to cover stock profits and purchases compared to $ 88 for Exxon, according to RBC Capital Markets. (Reuters photos/Angus Mourdant/Photo File/Reuters)

“We believe that there is a higher possibility than many of their peers (Exxon) can maintain the pace of payment,” said Cheng in Scottabank in a research note.

Exxon and Chevron did not respond to the suspension requests.

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Jason Gaplan, a TD Cowen analyst, wrote in a note on April 11, that the possibility that companies announce the cuts in capital expenditures are low in the short term, but can come in future places, in a note on April 11.

He wrote that spending on rock assets and green energy transmission projects is more mature of discounts because oil rock production can stop and start more quickly, while energy transmission efforts are not material for companies. Nearly 55 % of Chevron 2025 Capex in these two sections, while Exxon is less than 50 %.