Vietnam Tries to Escape the U.S.-China Great Power Trap

Amid the drumbeat of war and conflict, it is easy to overlook more subtle geopolitical shifts. One such shift occurred in November, when Vietnam upgraded its partnerships with Algeria, Kuwait, and South Africa following visits by Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh to the three countries. At first glance, this may seem simple: after all, Hanoi has been promoting partnerships with many countries and maintains many of these partnerships around the world.

However, Vietnam’s recent moves are different due to the current geopolitical climate and Hanoi’s changing foreign policy priorities. On the one hand, it seeks to reduce its over-reliance on economic and security cooperation with China and the United States. Next month, the Communist Party of Vietnam plans to hold its five-year national congress to determine possible changes to the national leadership and approve plans in all areas of state administration over the next five years. On foreign policy, the party adopted a new slogan – “Essential and Repeated” – to describe the crucial role that diplomacy plays in continually advancing Vietnam’s interests as a rising middle power. In other words, Vietnam’s national security depends largely and perhaps existentially on effective diplomacy, especially as growing competition between the United States and China threatens to destabilize the region and jeopardize Hanoi’s national interests.

Amid the drumbeat of war and conflict, it is easy to overlook more subtle geopolitical shifts. One such shift occurred in November, when it happened in Vietnam High Its partnerships with Algeria, Kuwait and South Africa following visits by Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh to the three countries. At first glance, this may seem simple: after all, Hanoi has been promoting partnerships with many countries and maintains many of these partnerships around the world.

However, Vietnam’s recent moves are different due to the current geopolitical situation climate and Hanoi’s changing foreign policy priorities. On the one hand, it seeks to reduce its over-reliance on economic and security cooperation with China and the United States. And next monthThe Communist Party of Vietnam is scheduled to hold its five-year national congress to determine possible changes in national leadership and approve plans for all areas of state administration over the next five years. Regarding foreign policy, the party has done so adopted A new slogan – “Essential, Repeated” – to describe the crucial role of diplomacy In continuous progress Vietnaminterests As a rising middle power. puts Another wayVietnam’s national security depends heavily and perhaps existentially on effective diplomacy, especially as growing competition between the United States and China threatens to destabilize the region and jeopardize Hanoi’s national interests.

From this perspective, it is remarkable that Vietnam has established new strategic partnerships so far. On the one hand, these are the first African and Middle Eastern countries to have such close involvement as Vietnam seeks new trade and other deals. More broadly, this behavior fits a pattern of Hanoi seeking to diversify its foreign relations in recent years — not just outside Southeast Asia but also outside the Indo-Pacific region — due to deep concerns about its current ability to overcome great power competition.

As I was before books As for foreign policy, Vietnam joined the BRICS as a partner country in June to explore alternative economic channels. This decision was groundbreaking because Hanoi has traditionally refused to participate in multilateral forums outside ASEAN, primarily to avoid the appearance of being allied with outside powers. In addition, over the past four years, Hanoi has significantly expanded its list of comprehensive strategic partnerships – the highest level in the foreign policy hierarchy – to include 14 countries. From 2008 to 2016, Vietnam maintained only three such partnerships – with China, India and Russia. However, starting in 2022, in Hanoi open the Flood gates and I fell It has established comprehensive strategic partnerships with 11 other countries, including the United States and other major powers, such as Australia, France, Japan, South Korea, and most recently the United Kingdom. Hanoi is clearly looking for new outlets for cooperation that can help it break free from its over-dependence on Beijing.

Although Vietnam is pursuing a global diversification strategy in an attempt to escape the trap of conflict between the United States and China, at the same time it is hedging with these same great powers. For example, in July, Vietnam Run Joint military exercises with China for the first time, a notable development given Vietnam’s usual defensive policy Forbidden Such activities. During US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s visit to Hanoi last month, the two countries agreed Agreed To enhance defense cooperation through exchange of delegations at all levels, as well as joint training, military medicine, disaster relief, humanitarian assistance, defense industry cooperation, and cybersecurity. Vietnam will likely stick to what it has been for decades He pledges “To make more friends, fewer enemies” and “cooperate and struggle” at the same time to avoid antagonizing or overly relying on the United States, China, or both.

Moreover, Vietnamese General Secretary Lam and the Communist Party did so Named The next five-year period will be an “era of national renaissance,” meaning that Hanoi seeks to accelerate growth, reform, modernization, innovation, and expand its global influence. Much of this agenda is domestically focused, but growth and modernization at home will inevitably enable a more active and diversified foreign policy. This will depend on Vietnam’s growing international importance as a rising middle power: according to the Lowy Institute’s 2025 strategy. Asian Energy IndexVietnam made the second-largest annual jump out of the 27 countries tracked by the index, and now ranks as the 12th strongest country in the region.

Vietnam’s foreign policy of forming new strategic partnerships to avoid dependence on great powers is not new. What is new is the intensity of Hanoi’s current approach and its reach beyond the Indo-Pacific region. This indicates that the Vietnamese leadership believes that its previous strategy was insufficient to mitigate the potential repercussions of deepening great power competition.

This trend has important political implications for the Trump administration’s relationship with Vietnam and its broader Indo-Pacific strategy. Although Hanoi will continue to seek closer cooperation with Washington on defense, including against China, such cooperation may be limited as Hanoi looks to alternative partnerships to avoid over-reliance on the United States. Hanoi may also choose to strengthen ties with Beijing to balance out the face of an unpredictable and seemingly erratic Washington, which has upended years of growing rapprochement by slapping on a new policy. 46 100% tariff on US imports of Vietnamese goods In April, before finally agreeing on 20 percent.

Hanoi’s evolving strategy means that the Trump administration may find it difficult to deal with Vietnam in the future. One solution for Washington could be to leverage US allies and partners that have ties to Hanoi, especially countries on the recent diversification list. This means indirect cooperation with Vietnam through friendly countries in the region, such as Australia, India, Japan and Singapore. Another approach is to de-emphasize great power competition during negotiations between the United States and Vietnam. Fortunately, the Trump administration is already trying this approach. For example, continue countries cooperation On issues of the legacy of war, such as the removal of Agent Orange and determining the fate of missing soldiers and civilians.

But the reality is that great power competition remains at the forefront of Washington’s thinking and planning. Vietnam will continue to feel the pressure and be subject to the whims of this volatile competition. No one can blame Vietnam for responding accordingly.