Cambodia and Thailand Have Agreed to a Cease-fire. Now What?

During the weekend, Thailand leaders and Cambodia agreed to the unconditional ceasefire that entered on July 28. We hope that the deal will end five days of the border conflict that killed dozens of civilians and soldiers on both sides and displaced 300,000 people in the border area.

The deal has been mediated by Malaysia, the current bearer of the round president of the Association of Southeast Asian countries (ASEAN), which from the two warring states of the members. Both the United States and China have pressed both sides to end the fighting.

During the weekend, Thailand leaders and Cambodia agreed to the unconditional ceasefire that entered on July 28. We hope that the deal will end five days of the border conflict that killed dozens of civilians and soldiers on both sides and displaced 300,000 people in the border area.

The deal has been mediated by Malaysia, the current bearer of the round president of the Association of Southeast Asian countries (ASEAN), which from the two warring states of the members. Both the United States and China have pressed both sides to end the fighting.

What led to the border clashes?

For more than a century, the Cambodians and Thai objected to sovereignty during the Hindu Temple in the eleventh century, which is currently controlled by Cambodia, as well as many other religious sites along their disputed borders. The argument from France’s demarcation of the border stems during the colonial era, when Cambodia was part of the French Indochy, Thailand remained an independent kingdom. Although the International Court of Justice in 1962 ruled in favor of Cambodia, Thailand ignores the result, and the two countries take weapons intermittently to express their frustration.

This time, however, personal issues require a really sensitive situation. On June 15 / in the Da`wah, Shinwatra, whose family was very close to Hun since her father and former Thai Prime Minister Thaxin Shinwatra, Hun Sen “Uncle” and criticized one of her Thai military leaders.

The registration, which has been explained by many Thais as their prime minister in betrayal, has registered a political crisis in Thailand that is still playing. On July 1, the Thai Constitutional Court suspended it, with the Deputy Prime Minister, Fottham and Yikhay, eventually as the prosecutor.

Meanwhile, there are different theories from the reason Hun Sen decided to leak the phone call. One of them was that he tried to prove nationalism in political support for his son and the current Prime Minister, Hun Manit. The other is that Hun Sen was insulted by Bangkok’s decision to establish the so -called cross -border fraud vehicles in Cambodia, which participated in mass fraud and criminal activities that may have benefited from the Cambodian regime, and Hun Sen personally. The Thai authorities raided real estate on the Thai side of the border and conducted arrests from the suspects who are believed to be associated with fraud, and Bangkok closed the communications towers that facilitate them.

What happened since it regained the conflict?

The last seizure of violence began on May 28 with the death of a Cambodian soldier during a summary exchange between Thai and the Camulds in the Emerald Triange, where the borders of Cambodia, Laos and Thailand are close to. Both sides blame each other to start the skirmishes; Thailand later closed the border.

A wider conflict, which started on July 24 after the land mine explosion hit five Thai soldiers on the previous day, to at least 38 deaths for most civilians and forced evacuation, perhaps 300,000 civilians on both sides of the border. Observers consider that this is the most dangerous and deadly round since a similar boundary in 2011.

Both sides participate in artillery artillery, whether they are reserved or self -defense. Both used drones – Campodia for monitoring and Thailand for deadly targeting – which represents a new milestone in their struggle and is in line with the global technological shift towards drone war warfare. The armed forces dwarf in Bangkok, Bennah, and the previous one benefited from its asymmetric advantage in recent days through the f-16s flying on the Cambodian lands to strike major targets and through the deployment of the Royal Thai Navy along the South Thailand coast. Each side blames the other to expand the war. It is worth noting that none of the two sides occupied the lands of the other party.

How does China and the United States participate?

Thailand is an official ally of the treaty in the United States but also has strong relationships with China. China is supported by Cambodia and hosts a Chinese naval base, one of only two bases that Beijing managed to create all over the world. However, there are no indications of the deal of the superpower that treats the conflict as a proxy struggle to achieve a strategic advantage in India. On the contrary, China and the United States have supported an immediate and unconditional ceasefire deal since the beginning of the crisis. Each of their weekends attended in Malaysia.

Although Chinese President Xi Jinping did not publicize, Foreign Minister Wang Yi described the situation as “sad and disturbing.” Wang also pointed out that “China is ready to support an objective and just position and play a constructive role for harmonious coexistence between Thailand and Cambodia.” However, Wang did not miss the opportunity to record some diplomatic points, and stated that the crisis was part of “the permanent damage caused by Western colonists.”

US President Donald Trump urged both countries to reach the ceasefire agreement on July 26, and threatened later: “We are coincided with chance, we are currently dealing with trade with both countries, but we do not want to conclude any deal, with any of the countries, if they were fighting-I told them that!” Once Malaysia was mediated in the deal, Trump was expected to try, without deserved, and tried to detonate Al -Fadl, claiming, “I have now ended many wars in only six months – I am proud to be president of peace!” Using a more traditional diplomatic language, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio explained that he and the administration “expects Cambodia and Thailand to respect their obligations completely to end this conflict.”

Will the ceasefire stop?

Like most stopping tools, this also faces the potentials and potential doubts that you can hinder. Cambodia and Thailand faces a combustion mixture of historical grievances, border conflicts, local political crises, and military nationalism that overcome the maintenance of the ceasefire.

However, both sides have strong incentives to adhere to the agreement, not the least of which is to avoid more death and destruction in their lands that can lead to political turmoil, economic sanctions, or even kidnapping the conflict by China and the United States for major competition purposes. Since the end of the colonial era, there is no history of Thai border conflicts that lead to a wider war.

All of them are in mind, the ceasefire represents a good opportunity to succeed during the coming days, weeks and months. The local political crisis in Thailand and other special factors will pass for this round of fighting. Certainly, deep historical grievances on preh vihear and other disputed temples are likely to remain, indicating that future conflict rounds may erupt at any time.

What can be done to preserve peace?

Ultimately, Cambodia and Thailand must reach an agreement to put the preh vihear sovereignty and access to the site for each other. Except, the two sides need to maintain regular consultations on the conflict to ensure that there is no misunderstanding or wrong perceptions that can unintentionally lead to another border crisis or even a vortex in a full war.

The ability of Malaysia to mediate the ceasefire deal-with the weight of ASEAN behind it-is a good sign. It indicates that the situation of Thailand as one of the strongest military forces in Southeast Asia does not prevent it from negotiating fairly with a weaker member of the bloc. At the beginning of the conflict, Bangkok resisted international mediation, and instead it is preferable to participate in bilateral talks in order to maximize its strategic advantages. As a smaller and weaker country, Cambodia preferred the international approach. However, Bangkok’s decision to abandon Malaysia as the President of Asian explains that Thailand – at least with its current government – does not respect the bloc and wants to be seen as a peaceful and productive member.

Finally, a lot will rely on whether Washington and Beijing still urges restraint and refrain from interpreting preh vihear as geopolitical beverages that can determine any large energy controlling China. If this interpretation wanders and increases the conflict, the United States and China can deepen its support for their friends.

The best way to Washington can avoid this intimacy for Bancock is that although they are security allies, the United States will not defend Thailand if it escalates militarily. Likewise, Beijing can be transferred to Bennah that China will remain non -binding if the conflict erupted again.