Experts warn Americans’ pessimism about business conditions has driven confidence to a level that typically indicates an impending recession

• Consumer confidence decreased in the fourth month in a row, Consumers’ view of working conditions and their own income fell to the lowest level in 12 years. The Conference Council says that confidence has decreased “much less than the threshold … and this usually indicates a recession forward.”

The Conference Council issued the latest survey of consumer confidence on Tuesday, which revealed the confidence of the consumer in the fourth consecutive month.

It is worth noting that the Conference Council’s expectations-which depends on the expectations of consumers in the short term of income and business and the conditions of the labor market-to 65.2, is the lowest level in 12 years “and much less than the 80 threshold that usually indicates stagnation forward.”

“Consumer expectations were particularly dark, with pessimism about in -depth future working conditions and confidence in future employment prospects to its lowest level in 12 years,” said Stephanie Gethshard, a global economist at the Conference Council. “Meanwhile, consumers’ optimism about the future income – which has strongly withstood in the past few months – has disappeared significantly, indicating that concerns about the economy and the labor market have begun to spread in consumer assessments of their personal positions.”

Compared to February, fewer consumers in March expected their income to increase – and on the contrary, more people expect their income to decrease. Their view of the labor market as a whole has also deteriorated, as fewer people expect that they will be more than available, and more people expect to get worse working conditions.

The Conference Council said: “The comments on the current administration and its policies, which controlled the positive and negative consumer responses alike, affecting their opinions in the economy.”

A significant decrease in March was in consumer confidence in largely driven by people over 55 years old, followed by the callers between 35 and 55 years.

It is worth noting that this pessimism extended to the stock market, as expectations turned into negative for the first time since 2023. The markets witnessed a huge sale earlier this month amid the induction uncertainty, which has wiped all post -election gains in the S&P 500.

“In March, only 37.4 % expected that stock prices will rise over the next year – nearly 10 degrees Celsius and 20 percentage points from the elevation reached in November 2024,” said Guichard. When it deserves, what consumers faces is identical to the feelings in Wall Street, where many economists expect the Trump administration to continue “an exceptionally supportive agenda” grief over the increasing risks of stagnation.

Consumers also feel more anxious than inflation than in February, where they remain “especially concerned about the high prices of major family foodstuffs such as eggs and the effect of customs tariffs.” In February, the Ministry of Commerce said that the Americans are sharply underestimating spending amid concerns about the effects of definitions on the economy. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Chairman in Chicago, Austan Golsby, warned that inflation would be a self -investigation prophecy if companies start bread of consumers’ concerns about their own expectations.

The Conference Council will issue its next report on consumer confidence on April 29.

This story was originally shown on Fortune.com

2025-03-26 15:42:00