China has only bought 332,000 tons of U.S. soybeans since Trump’s deal with Xi that promised 12 million

A USDA report released after the government reopened showed only two Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans since the summit in South Korea, totaling 332,000 metric tons. That’s far less than the 12 million metric tons that Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said China had agreed to buy by January, and nowhere near the 25 million metric tons she said they would buy in each of the next three years.

American farmers were hoping their largest customers would resume buying their crops. But CoBank’s Tanner Ehmke, chief economist for grains and oilseeds, said there is little incentive for China to buy from America right now because they have a lot of soybeans they have bought from Brazil and other South American countries this year, and remaining tariffs ensure that American soybeans will remain more expensive than Brazilian beans.

“We are still not even close to what has been announced by the United States in terms of what the agreement will be,” Ehmke said.

Beijing has not yet confirmed any detailed agreement to purchase soybeans, but the two sides have only reached a “consensus” on expanding trade in agricultural products. Even if China promised to buy US soybeans, it might only agree to buy them if the price was attractive, Ehmke said.

Trump said that his team spoke with Chinese officials today and assured the White House that they would buy more soybeans, but he did not provide any details about the quantity.

“Not only are they doing a little, they’re going to be doing a lot of soybean purchases,” he told reporters.

China’s tariffs on US beans remain high at about 24%, despite being reduced by 10 percentage points following the summit.

Soybean prices fell sharply by 23 cents to $11.24 a bushel on Friday. “This is what shocked the market due to the lack of Chinese demand confirmed by today’s USDA data,” Ehmke said. Prices are still higher than before the agreement when they were selling at $10.60 a bushel, but the price may continue to fall unless there are large new purchases.

Before the trade agreement, Trump promised farmers an aid package to help them survive the trade war with China. That was put on hold during the shutdown, and now it’s unclear whether the administration will provide aid to farmers like Trump did in his first administration.

American farmers have been through this before after Trump’s first trade war with China. The trade agreement China signed with the United States in 2020 promised to buy large quantities of American crops. But the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted trade between the two countries once the agreement entered into force. In 2022, US agricultural exports to China hit a record high, but then declined.

Soybean prices are actually still slightly higher than they were one year ago, even without China’s usual purchases of nearly a quarter of the US crop. This is because this year’s soybean crop is slightly smaller while domestic demand has remained strong with continued growth in biodiesel production.

But farmers are dealing with higher costs of fertilizer, seeds, equipment and labor this year, hurting their profits. Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky farmer who heads the American Soybean Association, said he is concerned that thousands of farmers could go out of business this year without major Chinese purchases or government aid.

Ragland said he remains optimistic that China will follow through with the purchases, but it’s hard to be confident now with so few sales reported.

“We don’t want to assume they won’t do it. But it’ll be a great day when we actually deliver the soybeans, when I have my money in hand and so forth, and the deal is completed,” Ragland said.

China is the world’s largest buyer of soybeans. China purchased more than $12.5 billion worth of the nearly $24.5 billion worth of U.S. soybeans exported last year.

But China stopped buying US soybeans this year after Trump imposed his tariffs and has continued to shift more of its purchases to South America. Even before the trade war, Brazilian beans accounted for more than 70% of China’s imports last year, while the United States’ share fell to 21%, World Bank data show.

Ragland said every vendor he talked to told him they would be increasing their prices for next year, which will continue to put pressure on farmers.

“We are still anticipating steep losses, and the red ink continues as we set budgets for 26 people in the pipeline,” he said.