China-Russia Gas Deals Tighten Beijing-Moscow Axis

An interesting thing happened in late this summer: Russia and China have deeply deepened their relationship to energy, less for economic reasons than geopolitical reasons.

The repercussions, which are not for energy markets but for international relations, can be of great importance for China, and a little less for Russia, and certainly for the United States-because friendship is “unlimited” between Beijing and Moscow is now cheerful for night and closed for decades.

An interesting thing happened in late this summer: Russia and China have deeply deepened their relationship to energy, less for economic reasons than geopolitical reasons.

The repercussions, which are not for energy markets but for international relations, may be very important – especially for China, slightly lower for Russia, and certainly for the United States – as. “Boundary“The friendship between Beijing and Moscow is now cheerful for night and closed for decades.

What China did, starting at the end of August, was simply receiving delivery operations From LNG (LNG) from Russia in a mysterious port. This, in addition to announcing that Russia will significantly increase the exports of gas pipelines to China, including building a Siberia 2 pipeline, including, including building a Siberia 2 pipeline, that the Russia China axis is stronger than ever, and will be present for a period of time.

LNG shipments are controversial because they came from a Russian project – LNG 2 – that was so Stumbling Through US sanctions, he has not been able to provide one molecule of gas since it ended two years ago.

US president Donald Trump The succession of India To buy Russian energy. He also tried and partially managed to strengthen Europe Surrender The habit. But China looks ready and able to do so Presenting a lifeline For Russian energy projects that have no other outlet. Until now, at least seven carriers are full of Russian gas that have been approved to a Chinese port that does not even need things. Analysts look at the purchases as a trial balloon from preparing for us to impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, even if it means intertwining with a strong opponent.

“It seems that China has a prison -free card with regard to power sanctions related to the United States,” said Jack Herndon of the European policy Analysis Center in Washington. “I think China believes that it has the upper hand because Trump wants a commercial agreement, so they think they can get rid of this at the present time.”

“Now” is about everything they will get in terms of Russian gas from the Arctic, due to winter and loss One of the liquefied natural gas tankers is from the ice category. Michel Midan, head of the Chinese Energy Program at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, said if the shipments are regular in the coming spring, especially if they land in ports more than carrying the sacrifice in the far south, then this will be great. (Meidan, along with a co -author, a Gorgeous piece On the topic.)

Maidan, who pointed out that the Chinese public challenge of American threats to secondary sanctions contradicts the country’s historically careful approach to doing business with the regimes submitted by China. Chinese imports of Iranian oil, for example, are often intended for “”tea-pot“Refiners that can get rid of Beijing, or isolated from the global financial system and the pain of US sanctions.

I took in conjunction with New pipeline plans This would close cheap natural gas for years to come, and pricing in rubles and Iwan in this, it seems that China is exposed to bolts.

Midan said: “It is a choice play. LNG North Pole, and Siber 2 power, if this happens, will take a large part of the gas supply in China and isolate it from global markets, global prices and foreign currencies.”

China has not bought any American liquefied natural gas since February due to the trade war, but its deeper relations with Russia should not be a major issue for the export of Trump’s reflection on this. Turbine; According to his trade framework with the European Union, each drop And more Among us, liquefied natural gas will have to make its way to Europe in any case.

The effect is greater for Moscow. The fact that Russia has finally found a buyer of some of the liquefied natural gas that was cut off, especially after Europe has become a little more serious about weaning than its own purchases of Russian gas, and now even Russia’s friends – like Hungary – take steps to diversification Power imports. It is not clear whether the limited quantities of Chinese purchases of Russian LNG will be enough to recycle Russia’s dream To ride gas exports in the sea to a new future for energy, but consider alternatives.

Pipeline ads, although they are expected for years, are also interesting. Russia will increase the amount of gas it sends to China through the current pipelines, especially the Siber 1 power, which is a prominent connection in energy that was Russia. The first large axis east When I witnessed that the European market begins to stumble. More important is building the Siber 2 power, which was I talked about it For a decade, but it may now be about to happen, even if it is through a different way. (Russia says it is a deal except; China is silent in this regard.)

But a deeper energy relationship with China does not solve all the problems of Russia. The expansion of the current Siberian pipeline moves more gas that has already been allocated to Asia. What needs a new market is the gas in West Siberia, which the Europeans no longer buy (and the Arctic gas that no one has bought). Gazprom, a large Russian gas company, stumbled from the manufacture of records losses A year ago IFFY profits This year, partially against the background of sales to China.

The only downside from Russia’s point of view is that China is leading a solid deal, and the price of the savior gas will be deducted with the flexibility of the built -in buyer who is now more than gas than it may need to be ever.

The “Russia to the East” was long on the cards because they knew that the European demand would decrease, then the conquest of Ukraine accelerated. This has not changed, but perhaps what Russia contemplated is that Siberian 2 is the life line. China is the only market, so this is good as it is.

One of the things that revolves around new energy deals in China is that it threatens to diversify energy for energy adoption. Midan calculated that by 2035, between LNG and the Trading of Extensive Pipelines, China can obtain 40 percent of the gas from one source: Russia. China may appear, as it has a top hand in the bilateral relationship, that it is the least issue of resource adoption and is more resource extraction.

Completely – Power deals, September summit Between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping On the screen In the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which is appropriately called, and the bitter between the two countries Incarnate In their membership in the BRICS group – all this indicates the greatest, then It is still unequalThe alliance between China and Russia.

whatever Hope Trump was withdrawing.Reverse Kissinger“Use closer relations with Russia to isolate China, now it seems great, buried under thousands of tubes and a handful of carriers.

“It seems that the Chinese are more willing to commit to Russia’s support,” said Midan.