China’s trade surplus tops $1tn for first time

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China’s trade surplus in goods since the beginning of the year exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, with exports booming despite US president Donald Trump’s tariff war.

In the first 11 months of this year, China’s trade surplus in dollar terms reached $1.076 trillion, according to data released Monday by the country’s customs administration, which covers goods, not services.

China’s trade surplus in goods for the full year in 2024 was just under $1 trillion.

The record surplus comes in the wake of calming trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, which agreed to a year-long truce in October.

The large gap between exports and imports has drawn criticism from China’s trading partners, with French President Emmanuel Macron citing “unbearable” imbalances on a visit to China last week.

China’s exports rose 5.9 percent in November from a year earlier, while imports increased 1.9 percent, resulting in a surplus of $112 billion for the month.

Exports to the United States have declined in recent months, falling by 29 percent in November year-on-year.

But shipments to other regions, especially Southeast Asia, increased rapidly. Economists believe some of these shipments bound for Southeast Asia, which increased 8 percent last month, are later shipped to the United States.

“I think the crux of the matter… is that the United States has not clamped down on transit shipments of goods through third-party countries,” said Carlos Casanova, chief Asia economist at UBB.

He added that US demand was “stable.”

“Because you are not seeing a decline in US demand, the region is still seeing a rise in exports, and China is indirectly benefiting from that,” he said.

Xi Jinping’s government has relied heavily on exports to drive economic activity amid weak domestic demand and a real estate slowdown that is now entering its fifth year.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a report that China is poised to increase its share of global exports to 16.5 percent by 2030, from 15 percent now, adding that they doubt that increased protectionist measures by trading partners could halt this progress.

“Given its dominant position in high-growth emerging sectors such as electric vehicles, batteries and robotics, we believe China will continue to strengthen its position in global manufacturing and trade,” Morgan Stanley analysts led by Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahiya wrote.

Data visualization by Haohsiang Ko in Hong Kong