Wall Street is already looking at what is expected to be the slower in America in quarterly profits in one year, and instead focuses on a number rarely embodies the lights: capital expenses.

Since the tariff system run by president Donald Trump, it keeps investors wondering what will happen after that, they turn their attention to the speed with which companies that drive the economy spend their business. Hope is that their position on large expenditures, such as real estate or major machines, will provide clarity in how to see the economy.

“I don’t think companies can spend money at a time like this,” said Scott Laden, chief investment official in Horizen Investments. “It is not an environment in which you can work as usual, so it becomes very conservative. It is a waiting and monitoring position.”

Early signs confirm Laden’s thinking. This week, JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. And a transportation company in the transport industry, by reducing the capital spending plan for this year, following a similar step last month by Fedex Corp. Meanwhile, United Airlines Holdings Inc.

“The first quarter is already old news, and more than that because things have changed significantly this month and look to change more in the coming months,” said Paul Christopher, head of the Global Investment Strategy at the Wales Fargo Institute for Investment. “We look very carefully at the guidelines that companies come out, especially from industries and materials.”

Parents build

Recent economic polls add pessimism. Data from the Federal Reserve banks appear in Philadelphia, New York, Retschmond and Dallas that manufacturers’ plans to spend on capital decreased in the first quarter. The March Nfib Small Business Templustish poll, which usually has a supportive bias of the Republic-has decreased to average of 51 years. A poll conducted by the executive magazines that was conducted earlier this month found that only 26 % of 329 corporate leaders who participated to increase their capital expenses, decreased from 36 % in March and 56 % in January.

Meanwhile, the total industrial production decreased in March for the first time in four months. It was found an economic model of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The uncertainty in the higher policy and the most tight financial conditions is likely to exercise a four -degree dose process on the annual semester growth in capital expenditures.

“It will be difficult to provide guidance in this quarter and difficulty confidence,” said the departure of my friend, the chief strategy in Newbreger Berman. “The company’s guidelines are related when they have a vision, but now no one has a vision.”

Investors had already appointed their spending on the largest companies in the S&P 500, known as The Magnificent Seven, which has poured billions of dollars in developing artificial intelligence functions while driving market gains over the past two years. It is expected that Microsoft Corp. And Nvidia Corp. And Tesla Inc. , Amazon.com Inc. , Apple Inc. , Meta Platforms Inc. And Microsoft Corp. And Nvidia Corp. And Tesla Inc.

Trump’s tariff is also expected to affect spending by large technology companies, which are at the heart of the global economy. If the trade war leads to stagnation, their spending on artificial intelligence is at risk.

Brent Shot, chief investment official at Northwestern Mutual Management Co. said.

Meanwhile, next week’s profits must manufacture heavy weights. And General Electric Co. And Boeing Co. , Beheemoth at & T Inc. And Chemical Major Dow Inc. Read whether the major American companies are outside the amazing seven investing in growth.

Most weak companies

The economic uncertainty that the non -coherent tariff plans in Trump is bad for all companies. But analysts and strategists have also been the most vulnerable companies in the densely capital industries. He added that the manufacturers of computers, electronics, devices, machines, petroleum products and chemicals will have the most dark updates, and transport companies will feel the dance with the benefit of the consumer demand.

“It is likely to be the first victim in the trade war is the confidence of the CEO,” said Dean Dray, co -chair of global industrial research at RBC Capital Markets. “Once this is penetrated, you get a delay in the project and longer approval times, and this leads to cancellation and CAPEX discounts. Since what is Capex for one of them is revenue for another, there is a consequently effective effect, and you start seeing CAPEX cut on a wider scale.”

DRAY expects some manufacturers to suspend the guidance due to the uncertainty surrounding the trade. He said that companies such as Wesco International Inc. The Fortive Corp and 3M engineering provider, which makes a Scotch tape and after that, are still more vulnerable to disorders.

The expectations of transportation companies and logistics, which move the goods used by companies and consumers, will be decisive in viewing.

“The transport companies I think will start cutting Capex,” said Jason Cell, TD Cowen analyst. “You will see at least moderate discounts to Capex for this year.”

Seidl pointed out that many traded truck drivers use relatively new cars. “They can easily pay a half -year -old fleet,” he said. “This is not outside the world of possibilities at all.”

However, this type of decision will extend through the supply chain, as companies that make trucks and parts – such as Cummins Inc. will witness. And Paccar Inc. – Impacts affecting if the two trucks stop plans to upgrade truck transport fleets.

Of course, there is still a possibility that the Trump administration’s efforts to re -manufacture to the United States through the use of definitions will motivate some companies to build new factories or expand their business, which may help to compensate for at least some expected decline.

“One of the ways in favor of this administration is to do what they are trying to make people do. It is building manufacturing capabilities in some capabilities,” said Horizon Lanner. “This is a different type of virtue signal,” President’s signals. “We see that we do the things that we want to do.”

This story was originally shown on Fortune.com

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2025-04-19 20:40:00