Crude Oil Prices Fall Due to a Focus on Oil Surplus

August (August) (CLQ25) decreased today -0.91 (-1.37 %), and RBob Gasoline (RBQ25) decreased -0.0374 (-1.72 %).

Crude oil prices are less today as the market focuses on global oil surplus expectations later this year. Oil prices also witnessed continuous weakness after president Trump refrained on Monday from imposing new sanctions on Russian oil exports and tariff threats only. Oil prices are also undermined from the highest level in the dollar index for 3 weeks today. The weekly EIA report was mixed today.

Anxiety about global oil abundance is negative for raw prices. On July 5, OPEC+ agreed to raise its raw production by 548,000 barrels per day (BPD) starting from August 1, as it exceeded the expectations of 411,000 barrels per day. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia also stated that the similar additional increases in crude production can be followed, which are seen as a strategy to reduce oil prices and punish OPEC+ production, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq. OPEC+ produces to reflect a two -year production reduction, which gradually leads to a total of 2.2 million barrels per day by September 2026. On May 31, OPEC+ agreed to increase 411,000 barrels per hour in crude production for the month of July, after a height of 411,000 barrels per day for June. Raw production increased in June +360,000 barrels per day to the highest level at 28.10 million barrels per day.

In an oil -supporting factor, Bloomberg reported last Thursday that OPEC+ discuss a temporary stoppage in increasing production from October, after its next monthly rise in September of 548,000 barrels. OPEC+ may be concerned about the slowdown in the global demand for oil in the second half of this year, which may lead to the abundance of supply if the group continues to increase production. The International Energy Agency said that stocks accumulate at a rate of one million barrels per day and that the global crude oil market is facing a surplus of Q4-2025 equivalent to 1.5 % of global crude consumption.

A decrease in crude oil that was held all over the world on bullish thunderbolt oil tankers. Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on carriers was fixed for at least seven days, decreased by -4.6 % w/W to 78.03 million barrels in the week ending July 11.

The weekly EIA report showed that the US crude stocks at the week ending July 11 decreased by 3.859 million barrels, the first tie in three weeks. Gasoline inventory lists increased +3.399 million BBLS, and distillation stocks increased by +4.173 million barrels. The environmental impact assessment report showed that (1) American crude oil lists from July 11 were 8.0 % less than the seasonal average for 5 years, (2) gasoline stocks were less than -0.1 % than an average of 5 seasonal years, and (3) distillation stocks less than -21.1 % than the seasonal average 5 years. US crude oil production in the week ended on July 11 by -0.1 % w/s to 13.375 million barrels per day, modestly less than 13.631 million barrels per day published in the week 12/6/2024.