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Facing Russia’s war on Ukraine, the EU couldn’t risk fighting a trade war with the US, analyst says

The head of the commercial deal, Donald Trump, announced on Sunday with the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Lin, who did not pass well throughout Europe.

One of the French CEOs said that Trump was “humiliating”, and French Prime Minister Francois Bayro described the deal as “submission.” Economist Olivier Blancard criticized him as “completely unequal” and a defeat for the European Union.

The United States also determines a 15 % tariff rate for most European Union products, less than 30 % of Trump threatened but more than 10 % Europe sought. The European Union has also pledged to invest $ 600 billion in the United States, buy $ 750 billion of US energy products, and download “huge amounts” of American weapons.

But according to Robin Brooks, a senior colleague at the Brookings Institute, the deal is not a defeat if you look at it from a different point of view.

“Instead, the recognition of the economic and geopolitical reality as the European Union needs the United States more than vice versa,” he wrote in Bidak. “At the end of the day, the European Union needs weapons for us to keep Ukraine on its feet on its struggle to stay against Russia. This is not just a place where a commercial conflict is escalating.”

In fact, Trump has significantly rose towards the European view of Ukraine, which was fighting Russia’s invasion for more than three years.

After expressing deep doubts about US support for Kiev, Ukrainian President Folodimir Zellinski at the White House, and temporarily cut military aid, helped Trump to strengthen Ukraine.

Earlier this month, he pledged to send more Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine and agreed to a plan in which European countries bought American weapons, then transferred them to Ukraine.

Trump also indicated that he was tired of the lack of Russian President Vladimir Putin in peace talks. On Monday, Trump gave Moscow less than two weeks to reach a deal or face severe slope penalties.

Meanwhile, analysts at Macquarie indicated that after the markets have previously witnessed that the United States abandoned its global security obligations, recent deals with the European Union, the United Kingdom and Japan indicate an attempt to treat these relations.

They said in a note: “In the background, it was a renewed commitment to American geopolitical participation as well, of course-re-commitment to Ukraine’s security, with Iranian nuclear origins, etc.”

Europe has certainly adhered to the renewal of its military forces and pledged huge expenditures, including the funds of local defense contractors.

But this will take some time, while the NATO forces are already relied heavily on American arms systems.

Despite the recent tensions across the Atlantic Ocean, there is a greater urgency in Europe to renounce it as Russia’s threat to the entire continent waving, not only Ukraine.

In February, the Danish intelligence service assessed risks from Russia as soon as its war in Ukraine stopped or frozen.

Russia can launch a local war against a border state within six months, a regional war in the Baltic within two years, and a large -scale attack on Europe within five years if the United States is not involved, according to the translation of the report from Politico.

The report said: “Russia is likely to be more willing to use military force in a regional war against one or more European NATO countries if it imagines that NATO is a military or political division.” “This is especially true if Russia has evaluated that the United States cannot or will not support European NATO countries in a war with Russia.”

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2025-07-28 17:34:00

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