Last year, I wrote about how it can be informed: difficult economic data, soft economic data, the stock market, and your personal bias.
The important point is that you can have what appears to be conflicting views of the economy, although you do not differ on the facts.
Allow me to show by presenting my views on the current situation of the economy.
Solid data is anything that reflects quantitative measurement behavior – things that already happen. These include measures such as employment and personal spending, which help us determine whether the economy is expanding or.
From the perspective of difficult data, I don’t feel great in the economy.
Cooling solid data to the extent that we can be said. The creation of job opportunities has decreased to nearly zero, and personal consumption has strengthened industrial production, and CAPEX ranking is high.
It is worth noting that the employment rate for every person unemployed decreased less than 1: 1 in July for the first time in more than four years.
There are now fewer job opportunities than there are unemployed people.
While this percentage still indicates the presence of many jobs to take, the situation is not in any strong place as it was during the early stages of the current economic expansion.
Economists often discuss the relationship between job holes and unemployment with, which indicates that low job opportunities are associated with high unemployment.
“We are working on the length of the Beveridge curve where the low demand for employment decreases, as is the case with low job opportunities, it will lead to greater increases in the unemployment rate,” wrote Nile Dutta from Renaissance on Wednesday. “Not good.”
I am not convinced that we are convicted we have to fall into stagnation. However, I think it is increasingly difficult to say that growth is destiny.
For more, read: ⚖
Soft data is created through consumer polls and business operators who express their opinions, feelings and expectations about things such as job security, financial health, inflation, future business activity, and work quality. Popular reports that pick up soft data, and.
According to the purchasing managers, the manufacturing managers said that the manufacturing activity had been contracted.
Although the unemployment rate is still very low at 4.3 %, people are not satisfied with the economy. Political polarization, social media, and low -quality news organizations, and the spread of wrong information in this separation between difficult and intentional data in recent years have contributed.
The Wall Street Journal recently published the survey results, and it was dark. from :
A new opinion poll in Wall Street Journal Norcated found that the share of people who say it has a good opportunity to improve their standard of living has decreased to 25 %, a record number in surveys dating back to 1987.
Nearly 70 % of people said they believe that the American dream – that if you are working hard, you will advance – it is no longer honest or never done, which is the highest level in nearly 15 years of investigative studies.
The fact that difficult data has deteriorated in recent months has not helped any of this.
If there is a reason for optimism, this is the fact that the economy has continued to grow despite all this pessimism. Imagine how much the economy may flourish if the feelings take a big step up?
in short termSolid and soft economic data can cause fluctuations in the stock market. Technical factors in the markets will also move prices in the short term. To a large extent, anything you imagine can affect trading decisions and investor feeling, which in turn affects the markets over short periods of time.
But in Long -termthe .
And expectations for.
The story of the dividends of the bullish companies contradict the story of faded economic growth.
As analysts from Goldman Sachs, companies benefit in the stock market, and a tendency towards large technology companies.
So, while economic conditions may not be favorable to everyone, they were at least favorable for large companies that make up the stock market.
People can say everything they want about the amount of stock prices that have increased in recent years, and how we can be “deserve” for the main contraction. But I claim that these calls lack merit if they do not address the fact that the profits have risen and are expected to continue to rise.
To learn more about this, read: 📊 and 📝
Some people will do badly in a strong economy. Some will flourish in a struggling economy.
Your view of the economy will be affected by your personal circumstances.
However, I personally have mixed feelings.
As the owner of Tker, I didn’t feel overwhelmingly because the stock market gathered to its highest levels ever. After all, Tker tells the story of how.
But the march was a paradox that it was sweet. Sharing has cooled on Tker, and subscribers soon grow up. This is not surprising. During 19 years of financial publishing, there is one thing I learned is that the reader’s interest is the highest during the market decline and volatile periods. Meanwhile, when stock prices turn up – as they were mostly summer – in a better understanding of what drives the market.
In other words, what is good for your near -term wallet is less than great for financial information work. vice versa.
So, yes, it is assumed that a fewer people share and that fewer subscribers open emails because the stock market sets new levels at all times.
Of course, I don’t hope there will be more market fluctuations.
Fortunately, as I turn naturally!
As I said, Tker tells the story of how the stock market rises. It is a news message on the stock market.
While I will continue to write about solid and soft economic data, and everything between them, it will always be written from the perspective of investors in the stock market.
