Gas prices expected to fall to $3 per gallon by 2026, EIA forecasts

Oil and gasoline Prices are expected to fall next year, according to the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts.

The Energy Information Administration published its short-term energy forecast for November last month, which predicted that the price of Brent crude would fall from $69 per barrel in 2025 to $55 per barrel next year. This would be well below the $81 per barrel level that prevailed in 2024.

Gas prices It is also expected to continue to decline next year. Retail gas prices averaged $3.30 per gallon in 2024, and $3.10 per gallon this year, but are expected to drop further to $3 per gallon in 2026, according to the EIA report.

US crude oil production rose this year and is expected to remain at its level in 2026, with the Energy Information Administration finding that the US produced 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024. The agency expects crude oil production to reach 13.6 million barrels per day this year – the same level as in 2026.

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Natural gas prices are expected to continue to rise after a noticeable increase this year. The Henry Hub natural gas price was $2.20 per million British thermal units (BTUs) in 2024 and has risen to $3.50 this year, while the EIA expects it to continue rising to $4 in 2026.

In recent years, the United States has become the world’s largest exporter of Liquefied natural gas (LNG)To occupy first place in 2023 and 2024, and export levels continued to rise.

The EIA noted that the United States exported 12 billion cubic feet per day of liquefied natural gas last year, with that number rising to 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 and 16 billion cubic feet per day next year.

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The United States led the world in LNG exports in 2023 and 2024, and export volumes are expected to rise this year and next. (Stefan Sauer/Image Alliance via Getty Images)

The environmental impact assessment report also divided a share Electricity generation According to the source across the United States, which showed natural gas as the largest source with a 40% share in 2025 and 2026, down slightly from 42% a year ago.

The share of electricity generated from renewables — a category that includes hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and biomass — reached 23% in 2024 and has been on an upward trend, with the EIA setting its share for 2025 at 24% and expecting it to rise to 26% next year.

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Share of nuclear energy The energy mix declined slightly from 19% to 18% from 2024 to 2025, while it is expected to remain stable at 18% next year.

Coal’s share of total electricity generation has also been relatively steady, with the EIA reporting it was 16% last year, 17% in 2025, and forecasting a return to 16% next year.

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The report also touched on Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissionsWhich increased slightly from 4.8 billion metric tons in 2024 to 4.9 billion metric tons this year. The Energy Information Administration expects it to return to 4.8 billion metric tons next year.