Goldman Sachs downgrades copper supply forecast after Grasberg mine disruption

By Anmol Choubey

(Reuters) -Goldman Sachs fell on Thursday’s global copper mines supply for 2025 and 2026 after being disrupted in Grasberg, Indonesia, the second largest copper mine in the world.

The accident, which occurred on September 8, trapped underground workers due to the heavy clay flow, prompting the Freeport-MCMORAN operator to announce the force majeure.

The bank estimates that there will be a total loss of 525,000 metric tons of copper mines supplies as a result of the turmoil, which reduces the expectations of the global mining supplies for the second half of 2025 by 160,000 tons and their expectations of 2026 by 200,000 tons.

Grasberg production is now expected to decrease by 250,000 to 260,000 tons in 2025 and 270,000 tons in 2026.

The loss of production exceeds the typical allowances of Goldman for global turmoil, which prompted the bank to reduce its estimates for the growth of global mining production from 2025 to 0.2 % from the previous year, decreasing from previous expectations of 0.8 %, and in 2026 to 1.9 %, a decrease from 2.2 %.

Fribort said that the restart of the operations and formation in Grasberg had occurred in the first half of 2026.

The turmoil in Goldman Sachs, the global copper balance, turned 2025 from an expected surplus of 105,000 tons, to a deficit of 55,500 tons, although it is expected that 2026 is expected to remain in a small surplus.

Goldman Sachs sees bullish risks to copper price forecasts in London in December 2025 from 9,700 dollars per ton, indicating that prices can settle in a range of $ 10,200-10,500 dollars.

The bank reaffirmed the expectations of the price of Saudi Arabia in the long term, at a value of $ 10,750 per ton by 2027.

The price of copper was traded for a period of three months on the London Metal Stock Exchange at $ 10,291.50 per ton by 1243 GMT.

Meanwhile, Citi raised copper prices from 0 to 3 months and the fourth quarter to 10500 dollars per ton from $ 10,000, also due to the disturbances of the Grasberg Copper.

The bank now sees a market deficit of 400 kilograms in 2026, and prices are expected to reach $ 12,000 per ton over the 6 to 12 months in its basic case and exceed 14,000 dollars per ton in a bull case.

CITI reviewed its Grasberg mine assumptions to 500 km for 2025 and 2026, decreasing from previous estimates of 680kt and 774kt, respectively.

As a result, the bank now expects the supply of the global copper mine to grow by only 0.1 % in 2025 and 1.3 % in 2026, compared to the previous expectations of 0.4 % and 1.8 %.

(Sherine Elizabeth Variziz and Anchry Mukherji in Bangaluru; Liberation by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Christian Schmollinger, Franklin Ball)