Government shutdown brings political reckoning for both parties in Congress

Reckoning is coming.

Or we say “accounts”.

They are coming, whether the government reopens soon or remains closed.

If the government remains closed, voters will likely set both parties on fire for not reaching an agreement. Air traffic delays are piling up. These problems are exacerbated as we approach Thanksgiving and Christmas.

This is to say nothing of the many missing paychecks for federal employees, the stress, the economic consequences and the lack of SNAP benefits for those in need.

Schumer and Democrats unveil an alternative shutdown plan, and demand an extension of Obamacare support for a year

Some of these concerns will dissipate if lawmakers address the shutdown quickly. But there will be a reckoning if the lockdown continues deeper into November.

There are likely to be specific calculations for both political parties.

For Republicans, this represents resistance by GOP leaders to address rising health care subsidies. Yes. The GOP is making a compelling case that health care subsidies are only necessary because Obamacare is a problem and health care prices are skyrocketing. So, Republicans are back in the fight against Obamacare.

In fact, the government shutdown is not all about spending levels and allocations. It’s a re-litigation of a touchstone law passed under President Obama in 2010. Republicans, despite multiple campaign promises and dozens of efforts to kill the law over six years, have failed at almost every turn.

Despite the issues with Obamacare, Democrats have included the public’s concerns about health care costs and linked that to government funding. Democrats appear to be the party trying to address the issue with rising insurance premiums. Republicans, despite promises that they will get there, remain inactive on the issue. They even support efforts to criticize Obamacare — just as they did in 2010 when Congress passed the law.

Republicans cling to the notion that subsidies “pump money to insurance companies,” as Sen. James Lankford, R-Oklahoma, said on Fox. Lankford also described those who benefited from Obamacare as a “select group.” It works for about 24 million people. This means 7% of the US population. So, this might burn the Republican Party politically. Maybe not.

There is a big reckoning looming for Democrats as well.

A coalition of Democratic senators will likely break with the Democratic Party and support a new GOP plan to reopen the government on a temporary basis. Nowhere does it say that Democrats — who have shut down health care — are guaranteed the outcome of supporting Obamacare. Yes, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and Senate Majority Leader John Thune have said they will address the health care issue after the government opens. But this is not necessarily a fix.

Trump urges Senate Republicans to redirect money from Obama-backed insurance companies and pay Americans directly

So Democrats are angry.

Therefore, there is a distinct possibility that Democrats will defund the government in an attempt to extract concessions on Obamacare subsidies and come away empty-handed.

Such an outcome would spark a severe firestorm within the Democratic Party. Progressives felt Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., backed away from them in March when he and a bevy of other Democrats helped the GOP break the filibuster to avoid a shutdown.

It is doubtful that Schumer will help this time. But Senate Republicans hope to convince enough Democrats to overcome a filibuster in a pending test vote and then fund the government until late January.

This is the calculation for Democrats.

There are no results for healthcare. Bolts were put on them by their party members.

once again.

Progressives will have a stroke. House Democrats will be angry – but not particularly so – at Democrats in the Senate.

President Donald Trump arrives at an Election Night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center Wednesday, November 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Evan Vucci/AP)

The Senate’s test vote on the new GOP proposal could take place as early as Sunday evening. The revised package will also fund the Department of Agriculture and the Department of Veterans Affairs, as well as Congress, through September 30, 2026.

Fox was told that Republicans believe they are within striking distance of convincing shutdown-sweating Democrats to join them.

Fox was told that air traffic control and flight delays are contributing to Democrats’ panic.

However, Senate GOP leadership is believed to be reluctant to force a vote on the retooled spending bill without ensuring it could break a filibuster. The last thing the Senate needs is another failed procedural vote after repeated failed votes over the past six weeks.

Republicans turn their attention to attacking Obamacare as the shutdown enters its 39th day

Let’s play timing for a moment:

By the book, if the Senate breaks the filibuster late Sunday, it is doubtful the chamber will be able to take a final vote on the package until Monday or Tuesday. But Fox was told there was a distinct possibility that Democrats would give up time to speed up the process in favor of reopening the government quickly. By the same token, angry liberal senators could eat up parliamentary hours and try to amend the bill to their liking — likely with provisions for Obamacare.

The Senate must break another filibuster to finish the bill. And then to the final pass. This only requires a simple majority. Even if some Democrats vote to block the filibuster, they may not ultimately support the basic plan. However, this is not a problem if GOP senators provide the necessary votes.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., right, brief reporters after their meeting with President Donald Trump and Republican leaders in Washington on Sept. 29, 2025. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo)

And then home. The House of Representatives’ action is unclear regarding this legislation. However, it is hard to believe that most Republicans would not accept this deal. Reps. Tom Suozzi, D-N.Y.; Mary Glusenkamp Perez, Democrat from Washington; Jared Golden, Democrat of Maine, is among moderate Democrats who might vote yes if the GOP loses some votes. Golden was the only House Democrat to vote in favor of the old stopgap spending bill on September 19. Golden has since announced his retirement.

Another big question: Will the House perform before or after the vote? Democrats will bray if Johnson fails to swear in Grijalva before a potential House vote

As we say, it’s always about the math.

Grijalva’s swearing-in brings the council to 433 members with two vacancies. The breakdown is 219 Republicans to 214 Democrats. This means the GOP can only lose two votes before needing help from Democrats.

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Regardless, the House of Representatives will not return until at least the middle of next week, if not later. It depends on how quickly the Senate can move if it has the votes to break a filibuster and what happens to the Obamacare issue.

All of this is uncertain 39 days into the government shutdown.

The only thing that is certain is the political calculation on both sides.