Myanmar Junta Leader Schedules Elections, Ends State of Emergency

Four years after washing the country in chaos through his 2021 coup, Myanmar captain, Min Ong Hang, handed power to a temporary government – himself.

Observers do not expect that the transformation of cosmetics will lead to that Min Aung Hinging announced on July 31 that leads to any fundamental political changes to a military system that committed severe repression and human rights atrocities. Instead, the signals that announce that the preparations are underway in elections, and have promised Min Aung Hlaing to keep them since the civil leader in Myanmar imprisoned, Aung San Suu Ki, in February 2021.

Four years after washing the country in chaos through his 2021 coup, Myanmar captain, Min Ong Hang, handed power to a temporary government – himself.

Observers do not expect that the transformation of cosmetics will lead to that Min Aung Hinging announced on July 31 that leads to any fundamental political changes to a military system that committed severe repression and human rights atrocities. Instead, the signals that announce that the preparations are underway in elections, and have promised Min Aung Hlaing to keep them since the civil leader in Myanmar imprisoned, Aung San Suu Ki, in February 2021.

The National Association for National democracy in Suk (NLD) is prohibited from competing in the elections, which is scheduled to be held in December. This is sufficient to make the entire operation a trick: the NLD won about 60 percent of the popular votes in the 2015 and 2020 elections. The US Deer Military and Development Union Party (USDP) is likely to prevail instead.

China, the main circle of the Military System in Myanmar, is also the main architect of the elections. In a recent report, the International Crisis Group said that Beijing views the elections as “Quid Pro Quo” to prevent the regime’s collapse.

Immediately after a coup in 2021, China maintained the irregular regime of the Myanmar with a diplomatic length, even while continuing to provide it with combat aircraft and contribute to the production of bombs. In the face of the widespread armed rebellion, the Military Council was unable to stabilize the Chinese border and the main Chinese infrastructure projects, which the observers believed disturbed Beijing.

But starting last year, China interfered with an extraordinary degree to support the military regime. I put tremendous pressure on the ethnic armed groups working on the Chinese border to sign the ceasefire with the Myanmar Army-until the delivery of some seized lands to the Military Council in Naibidao. The groups have also been pressured to reduce relations with the most pro-democracy movement, which China has been very close to the West-and thus more problematic than the unreliable Min Aung Hlaing.

While Beijing sees an army -backed judgment in Myanmar, as is the case in staying, it may be hoped that Min Aung Hinging. This is where the elections come. “Beijing prefers to deal with a nominal civil government, and if possible, with someone other than Main Ong Hinging,” he claimed the crisis group report, adding that China believes that the great general “is incompetent.”

After the elections, power will be divided between the Supreme Leader and the President, the rotation of Men Aung Hulang at the same time today. You will also see the parliament full of hundreds of politicians, led by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, whose strong position was established through the constitution that was drafted by the army in 2008.

So, will the elections change anything at all? Some analysts and diplomats hope that they can remove Min Aung Hlaing – or more realistic, limiting its influence by creating space for competing energy centers to appear. Others, however, rejects this as thinking about wishing.

Optimists point out that Ong Hong is not popular in the traditional circles supporting the mixture. He has faced unprecedented criticism from senior military and nationalist officers for his amazing losses in the battlefield against rebel groups.

Observers believe that USDP is widely hated the Supreme Leader-not only for chronic instability and the economic collapse in which he started. USDP members have been targeted routinely to assassinate the forces supporting democracy since the coup. The party claimed that about 3000 members and supporters were killed, while the army was unable or unwilling to protect them.

At the same time, the Min Aung Hlaing has more central power than its predecessors, making it increasingly difficult to form it. A group of general criticism that started when the Myanmar army was avoided controlling most of the borders with China in 2023 through a campaign of threats and intimidation.

For example, a prominent member of the USDP indirectly criticized the ingenuity of the strategic Min Aung Hlaing. HLA SWE used his personal publication to praise other military leaders on their wartime victories, and he specifically mentioned the conflict theaters as Min Aung Hulang faced remarkable defeats. Soon after, he was said to have been detained for a short time, and since then he changed his melody. When calling it Foreign policy In July, Hla Swe insisted that there was no dissatisfaction with the system commander and the phone was suspended.

For optimistic, any elections can be that the MING Hlaing side lines are an important step towards peace. One of the Western diplomats, who spoke with the trend line, said the elections. Foreign policy Provided that his identity is not disclosed because he was not allowed to speak to the media.

Min Aung Hlaing has become a person who was committed by the atrocities that were committed by his ruling to the extent that the idea that peace talks start while in power is not largely imagined. In May, an air strike was killed in a school in a rebel land of 20 students, reaching 8 years, and two teachers.

Tao Nei, spokesman for the National Union of Karen – the oldest ethnic armed group in Myanmar – Foreign policy The group will only consider negotiations if the army agrees to place itself under civil control. “Even if Min Aung Hinging is retreating, it will not be easier to negotiate with [the] Tao Ni wrote in a text message.

However, this may be too much for hope. “The mood of the diplomats is somewhat desperate these days,” said the Western diplomat, who added that Min Aung Hinging leaves power.

With the elections prescribed for the month of December, the Min Aung Hlaing is a great time to manipulate the procedures to install loyalists as a president or line up a compatible alternative as a major commander if he climbs to the presidency. If Min Aung Helling feels as if he had outperformed a competitive faction in the army, he can simply call the whole matter.

Holding the elections will be difficult in logistical. Campaign events supporting scientists or polling stations can become a target for rebel groups that hope to disrupt the procedures. Some administrative divisions in Myanmar are now a mixture of mixed control, while almost lost others. In cases of remote western chin and Rakhine, on the border with India and Bangladesh, the regime controls a little more than state capitals.

From the perspective of Min Aung Hlaing, there are also benefits for this instability. The regime said that the elections will be held over several weeks in stages using electronic voting machines that have been manufactured by the crises group reports in India. This format will make it easy for Min Aung Hlaing to set the results according to his desire.

Electronic voting machines are an embarrassing solution for the army, who seized power after being accused of an unfounded way from NLD in committing the voters’ fraud in the 2020 elections. Despite its authoritarian tendencies, the Myanmar army has long held a strange link with clean elections, even when it rejects the results. The national run by the military in 1990 and 2015, and the sub -elections in 2012, all led to huge victories of the NLD landslide. The army will continue to cancel the results of the 1990 elections, as it did in the 2020 opinion polls, but it still calculates the votes fairly.

In the face of existential threats and pressure from Beijing, Min Ong Hinging agreed to hold elections. What happens after that, however, it can still be seen.

The abolition of the elections or the maintenance of its position as risking the absolute dictator in China’s anger, which was largely assumed to have granted approval to attack the main rebels on its borders in 2023. Main Ong Hulang has repeatedly showed that he was ready to harm the country and the army as an institution for its survival. If it seems that the elections may threaten its position, there is no reason to expect it to move forward, even if he risks the anger of his main supporters in Beijing.

At this stage, China realizes this. Consequently, the promotion of the election of Myanmar is a snapshot in the dark by an international society devoid of other ideas, hoping to strike something unexpected.