Hedge fund billionaire Paul Tudor Jones says 2025 is ‘so much more potentially explosive than 1999’ because of the way bull markets always end
Paul Tudor Jones, the founder and CEO of Tudor Investment, has caused warnings about the state of financial markets in 2025, and made clear comparisons with the huge boom led by technology in 1999, while explaining that today’s environment could be “more likely to explode.” The reason is related to what the veteran in the market knows about how to always perform emerging markets.
Speak to Andrew Ross Sorkin from New York TimesDealbook on CNBC channel Squak Fund Before the upcoming investor conference of the Robin Hood Foundation, Jones described the investment climate today as a strange way to the climate that preceded the dot com in 2000.
He said, “It seems just like 1999,” implicitly indicating that the market was behaving like the famous Princess song with the words: “A party as if it was 1999.” Investors urged to take a similar position of what happened in October 1999, when the Nasdak index doubled within months before it collapsed, the pattern that Jones sees increasingly reasonable today. He said that the difference is that this may be worse than the collapse of the dot com.
Jones Sorkin told his fears related to investor behavior in every emerging market, specifically in the end, when the abyss is approaching and no one is sure of its place.
Stampede
Jones stressed that in every emerging market, “the highest price height is always during the twelve months before the summit,” as happened after October 1999. He said that the challenge for investors is the timing: “If you do not play it, you lose juice. If you play it, you must be really happy because there will be a very bad end for that,” in a sign of the phrase American football that means “when the midfielder plays.” Ants walk on the heads of his fingers around the midfielder, instead of standing at home.
“If there is anything, it is now more likely to explode from 1999,” said Tudor Jones, citing the background of the FBI’s reduction in interest rates. He pointed out that the Federal Reserve is ready for several discounts in interest rates, as monetary policy takes the economy to a real interest rate of zero, which means incentives for investment and spending given the low cost of capital. With regard to financial policy, congress achieved a budget surplus in 1999, and today it suffers from a 6 % budget deficit. He said: “This financial/critical mix is a mix that we have not seen since then. I think it is in the post -war, in the early fifties, something like that.” “These were crazy times, right? Leave the war.”
However, Jones insisted that he did not expect a bubble or expected a collapse.
He explained: “I do not suggest that the train will be broken.” “I suggest that we are in a favorable period for a significant rise in the prices of a variety of assets.”
The era of “boldness”: financial recklessness and artificial intelligence
Jones believed that the bubble was in sovereign debt, describing government bonds as the “largest bubble”, in light of the tremendous global deficit that was currently avoided through the continuous facilitation course and proactive flows to fixed income.
He said: “We are boldly walking to where no one has gone before before.” Star Trek Referring to capturing an unprecedented mixture of easy money and enlarged sovereign obligations. It expects the account when the current cycle ends of interest rate discounts and “all this demand is paid forward.”
When asked about the “patrol” of funding in the field of artificial intelligence, with NVIDIA, Openai, AMD and Oracle, [hotlink]Microsoft,[/hotlink] Jones agreed to this, and others all have somewhat interlocking data center deals with each other. “I would like to say that the circular makes me feel nervous.” But he added that in general, the way he is thinking about it is that the markets are often worried about inflation, and gold is the biggest winner (in fact, the precious metal has continued to constantly stand up in 2025, approaching $ 4,000 an ounce as of Monday). Jones did not mention NVIDIA throughout his interview.
Jones also reduced a minute to talk about the race for the fourth quarter.
He said: “The race, realistically, will certainly continue until the end of the year, because when everyone registered institutionally, and then you have to know what will happen next year.”
These statements echoed a separate interview made with luck Written by Vivic Arya, Senior Analyst at Bank of America Research.
“I think we are at that stage of the year and this is not only limited to that [2025]Arya said: “We have seen this in almost previous years at this time, as people feel very unjustified about the amount of spending next year,” Arya said.
Arya added that as soon as the new year begins, “people feel comfortable with spending and then start returning to the basics again.” He added that there is a “characteristic” related to the fourth quarter season, “where people feel nervous naturally. luck It submitted a separate report on the thesis of Owen Lamont, “The Harm” and “Harvest Time”, which is that the markets suffer from the presence of a very large number of traders who go on a vacation between August and October, a legacy that belongs to the American agricultural roots and how the markets work around the harvest of some crops.
Currently, Jones told CNBC that music is still running. But the warning is clear: “History has many rhymes.” For investors, the year 2025 can be with explosive gains – and the risk of the end of the party’s end in a closer time, more violently, than most people expect. He added that he is not sure whether in 1999 it will be fully replaced, “But I believe that all the ingredients exist, and certainly from a commercial point of view … it seems like a duck and the quacks like the duck. Maybe not a chicken, right?”
2025-10-07 18:38:00
