How the Dalai Lama’s Succession Could Shape India-China Ties – Foreign Policy

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The most prominent events this week: Issue Tel Dalai Lama It represents a challenge to the relationship of Chinese Indochs, Bangladesh among the first 14 countries Tariff notice From the United States, Russia becomes the first country to officially recognize Afghanistan Taliban government.

Where does India stand on the Dalai Lama?

Last Thursday, Kirin Rego, Minister of Minority Affairs in India, managed to the caliphate of Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader of Tibet who lived in exile in India since 1959 and that reached 90 on Sunday.

“The decision on its successor lies only with the Dalai Lama,” said Rego. “No one has the right to decide this except he and the agreements in force.” It is not customary for the Indian government to comment on such a sensitive issue. The Tibetan issue is often ignored in discussions of relations between China, but its potential effects may be deep.

As expected, Beijing-which considers Tibet as an integral part of China and Dalai Lama as a separation-do not take this well, and called on New Delhi to “stop using issues related to Tabit to interfere in the internal affairs of China.” Dalai Lama, who fled Tibet after an unsuccessful rebellion against Chinese forces, confirms that he is defending “purposeful” independence in the region, not complete independence.

The Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs itself has distanced from the suspension of Rejigo, stressing that New Delhi does not take any position on this issue. But the subsequent moves of India, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, I wish Lei Lama happy birthday and many Indian ministers visiting the spiritual leader at his home in Daramashla, prompting new warnings from China.

Beijing insists that the upcoming Dalai Lama, the issue now threatens to melt the humble spice in the relations between Indo -Chinese, which was especially tense after a fatal boundary 2020. In recent months, though, the two sides paved the boundaries deal and resumed direct flights. In April, China removed a ban on the visit of Indian pilgrims religious sites in Tibet.

This devastation appears to have survived the conflict in India in Pakistan in May, when Pakistan used Chinese -Chinese weapons for the first time in combat operations against India. Last month, Indian National Security Adviser Agit Dofal and Defense Secretary Rajnath Singh met separately with Chinese officials to discuss bilateral cooperation.

These developments are not very surprising, given that India and China have worked historically about tension points and left enough space for cooperation. They have long maintained a strong commercial partnership, worked together in multilateral forums, and joint interests from combating Islamic terrorism left them to support non -Western economic models.

However, China is not about to ignore its concerns about India’s position on the fate of the next Dalai Lama. Beijing does not want a compromise on the issue of Tibet, which is related to the caliphate. India officially recognizes Tibet as part of China, but its support for the current Dalai Lama is IronClad. Last year, New Delhi allowed a group of American congress residents to visit him at his home – a visit condemned by Beijing.

China is likely to explain India’s official position of India on the succession of Dalai Lama as supporting the insistence of Dalai Lama that he and his institutions in Darmachala should oversee all aspects of the process.

The former Indian Ambassador to China Nerobama Rao recently wrote that India can retreat and allow the caliphate to play in Daramashla – a “maker issue[ing]Through silence and space, the conditions of originality to survive. “India will see that this is a peaceful approach and a good-intention-but China may take a different view.

China is keen to benefit from investment opportunities in India, which can verify a less tense bilateral relationship, and will not want to undermine the last momentum.

But in the worst scenario, it can spoil the Chinese misery over the Dalai Lama Beijing issue to organize provocations on the disputed Indo-Chinese border-which led to a major blow to bilateral relations, as well as the clash in La Edkat in 2020.

What we are following

Bangladesh between the losses of customs tariffs. On Monday, the administration of US President Donald Trump began sending tariff media messages to foreign governments. Bangladesh was among the first 14 years that obtained the bad news, which came only one week after the interim leader Mohamed Yunus and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke over the phone and discussed economic cooperation.

Bangladesh will face a 35 percent tariff once the fees return on August 1, and it has a lot to lose from such a high tariff: its economy is fragile and depends greatly on the exports of equivalent clothes, which is the United States a higher destination. Dhaka will try to avoid this danger by negotiating a deal with Washington in the next few weeks.

However, these clothing exports can become more likely because Vietnam, one of the few countries that have reached a trade agreement with the Trump administration so far, is a major export competition and will face a much lower tariff than Bangladesh. On Wednesday, Trump issued tariff messages to additional seven countries, including Sri Lanka (30 percent).

Russia recognizes the Taliban government. Last Thursday, Russia became the first government to officially recognize the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. The move broke a global consensus, which was held since the Taliban returned to power in 2021, about the idea that foreign governments can deal with the Taliban in ways of no less than complete recognition.

Russia may want to take a position in contradiction with Western democracies that have pledged not to recognize Taliban, especially because of its unknown policies towards women’s rights. It may also seek to facilitate deeper economic relations with Afghanistan, as the war in Ukraine negatively affects the Russian economy – and trade cooperation is easier to follow up on official relations.

Finally, Russia may think that normalization can accelerate cooperation with the Taliban. The Islamic Islamic State, which is based in Afghanistan, is the competition of the Taliban, a major Russian security concern. The group’s attack on a concert hall in Moscow last year killed 145 people.

China may follow Russia’s progress. Like Moscow, Beijing indicated a desire to increase economic cooperation with the Taliban, and hopes to introduce the initiative of its belt and the road to Afghanistan; China concluded commercial deals with the Taliban shortly after the group returned to power. Beijing praised Moscow’s decision shortly after its announcement.

Promoting the BRICS in India. Some observers may see the summit of Brexes this week in Brazil as Doda. Senior leaders from China and Russia did not attend, Trump’s threats to definitions against the group contributed to a relatively reluctant joint statement, and there was not a lot of tanna as it was during the summit of last year, which was attended by leaders from 36 countries.

But the point of the summit from New Delhi is likely to be more exciting. Brics brings many benefits to India. Regardless of China, India has warm ties with all BRICS countries – including new members of Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates. The group adopts the goals and principles close to the heart of India and help the country’s strategic government progress.

The summit of this year brought two additional features to India: The absence of Chinese and Russian leaders enabled New Delhi to play a larger role, most likely to contribute to Brex’s approval to condemn the terrorist attack in April in Kashmir, the Indian director in the joint summit statement.

All this said, Trump’s tariff threats against Brexes are likely to bother India.

Under the radar

The largest political party in Nepal, the Nepalese conference, has occupied an important place in the country’s policy since the cancellation of the monarchy in 2008 and is currently one of the best partners in the Nepal coalition government. but Kathmando Post Reports indicate that the rift line appears within the party linked to an emerging issue in the hot button: the role of religion in the state.

Many of the senior leaders of Congress in Nepalese called for Nepal, a secular state since 2007, to become a Hindu state. At a meeting of the concerts last year, it was said that the members were not surely launched – a signature campaign calling for Nepal to get rid of its secular situation.

In recent months, the major protests have erupted in Nepal to support the restoration of ownership; Many demonstrators also called for the country to become a Hindu state. Nepal became secular long before the cancellation of the property.

The notified cracks within the Nepalese Congress are a reminder that discussions about the country’s religious situation are not merely a reflection of street policy: they are also playing between the political leadership.

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in Daily StarJournalist Sajad Hussein He writes that the National Party in Bangladesh needs to develop a better strategy for social media at a moment when the party works hard to restore the confidence of the public: “This time, they need to protect their mission from wrong noise. This can only happen with preparation, speed and smart work.”

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