In 2025 so far, 40% of VC exit value stems from AI, according to PitchBook

And if that’s an exaggeration, it hardly seems so: In the third quarter, AI accounted for 39.5% of the number of trades, a record high, according to PitchBook. AI is lifting deal-making trends in the U.S., with PitchBook estimating that the number of deals rose about 8% this year, the third most active year in the past decade. And when it comes to deal value, the numbers are even more dominant: by the third quarter of 2025, 64.3% of deal value in the US was related to AI. Now, the definition of “artificial intelligence” is very broad, but the undeniable reality has now taken hold.

“I think AI is essentially becoming the foundation of venture capital,” Kyle Stanford, director of U.S. venture research at PitchBook, said via email. “It provides a completely new way for companies to solve challenges, and it is being integrated into every part of the economy. It is still easy and fast deployment that can drive the hyperscale that venture capital is looking to achieve great returns. As mentioned above, it is not a single technology or a subset of companies within a broader industry; it is becoming part of everything.”

This follows the much-discussed and long-suffering venture capital exit environment: in 2025 so far, 40% of exit deal value also goes back to AI, among them CoreWeave’s IPO. PitchBook says 2025 saw a record 317 AI exits. But the environment for IPOs and mergers and acquisitions remains risky, according to PitchBook’s Stanford.

“The exit value is interesting because you have a few strong IPOs, and then a fair number of IPOs that probably got higher billings for the year because of the overall lack of exits,” he said. luck. “I don’t think many people share my view on the IPO market, but I do question its true strength given the relatively small size of the projects… Many of the IPOs have been crypto companies or companies that might be considered unusual for the overall venture capital-backed stock. I believe the extended period of remaining private (over the past three years) will lead to the listing of some strong companies Very next year.”

Whether this over-reliance on AI is healthy for the venture capital industry is an open question. Naturally, this question is intertwined with today’s debate: Are we in a bubble? If we are, what does that even mean?

Stanford says he believes the bubble conversation needs to be nuanced. “This hype cycle, or bubble, may lead to more events,” he said. “The multiples being given to some companies are quite high, which may be worrying, but if this is truly the technological shift it is being described as, companies should not be priced in a normal way.”

An idea to this end from Brent Hill, managing partner at Origin Ventures, which just raised a sixth fund worth $140 million: “The American economy has gone through five major economic eras: agricultural, industrial, informational, and digital — and now, of course, we live in the fifth and perhaps most important era with the AI ​​economy.” Hill believes that this ongoing phase will be huge, noting that “we believe that over the next ten years we will see a huge impact on the productivity of the American economy that will add between $2 trillion to $4 trillion to the domestic gross domestic product.”

There remains, of course, the question of the extent of venture capital’s unprecedented reliance on AI. We may be seeing a lot of corollaries from the dot-com bubble, but venture was a much smaller and less mature industry at the time. Karen Page, general partner at B Capital, thinks it’s worth considering the cloud boom.

“The cloud has been a fundamental shift, a different way of owning and operating your data,” she said. “But even so, AI is a different way of accessing your data. So, this is still a big shift.”

There was always, during the cloud noise, a feeling that the brakes were being pumped. But that is not the case in the field of artificial intelligence. “There is no fear of artificial intelligence,” Page said. “Instead of fear, there’s a desire to jump in and move quickly. So, it’s completely different.”

Overall, she and I ultimately agreed on the word “unprecedented.”

see you tomorrow,

Allie Garfinkel
tenth: @agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
Submit a deal for the term sheet newsletter here.

Joey Abrams coordinated the deals section of today’s newsletter. Subscribe here.

Project deals

– a base powerthe Austin, Texas-based energy saving company, has raised $1 billion in Series C funding. addition He led the tour and joined him Trust projects, Courageous Equity Partners, Thrive capitalet al.

– FagusSuresnes, a France-based developer of a sustainable alternative to antibiotics, has raised $30 million in Series A funding from Capagro, Hoxton Projects, Caphorn, Demeteret al.

– Currency flowa global payments platform based in Chicago, Illinois, has raised $25 million in Series A funding. Pantera capital He led the tour and joined him CMT digital, Coinbase Projectset al.

– Quilt makera Los Angeles, California-based company that uses artificial intelligence to build an autonomous PCB layout, has raised $25 million in Series B funding. index Projects He led the tour.

– gluea San Francisco-based group chat platform for agents, has raised $20 million in Series A funding. a summary Projects He led the tour and joined him the chapter one, Goldcrest capitaland Craft projects.

– world.protectiona security data pipeline based in Boston, Massachusetts, has raised $15 million in Series A funding. Jumping capital He led the tour and joined him Glass pavilion Projects and a partner.

– Harmonious intelligencean Orlando, Florida-based developer of AI-powered call center agents for hospitals, has raised $13 million in seed funding. extremist Projects and threshold Projects He led the tour.

– AiPrisea San Francisco-based global compliance operating system, has raised $12.5 million in Series A funding. the address He led the tour and joined him Thirty-six and relationship.

– Every groupa film and TV backend performance platform based in Los Angeles, California, has raised $9 million in funding. Crosslink capital and haven Projects He led the tour.

– Cyber ​​wavea Milan, Italy-based company developing an operating layer between AI agents and real-world machines, has raised €7 million ($8.1 million) in funding. united Projects He led the tour and joined him the TechShop And others.

– Asterix fooda company based in Tel Aviv, Israel, is a developer of technology that uses plant cells to produce animal proteins. CPT capital He led the tour and joined him Your puppy Projects, Regine Projectsand SOSV.

– dragonflya software discovery platform based in London, UK, has raised $3.5 million in seed funding. episode 1 He led the tour and joined him Dreamcraft, file ProjectsAnd angel investors.

– Oralivaa New York City-based developer of AI-assisted oral cancer detection technology, has raised $2 million in seed funding. Dr. Pritpal Sidhu He led the tour and joined him DCVC, RTP angel financeand NYU Innovation Ventures Fund.

Private equity

– Mainsail Partners Invested $36 million Flintlockheavy equipment dealer management system in Anchorage, Alaska.

– Brenton a point capital Partners acquired a majority stake in Bobcat from Connecticuta chain of Bobcat companies based in East Hartford, Connecticut, and other industrial equipment dealers. Financial terms were not disclosed.

– integrity Aesthetic view institutionwhich is a portfolio company Sea coast capitalacquired Serpico Landscapean outdoor landscaping company based in Hayward, California. Financial terms were not disclosed.

– Mountaingate capital acquired a majority stake in Walker sandsa business growth services agency based in Chicago, Illinois. Financial terms were not disclosed.

– Wall Street Prepwhich is a portfolio company the Riverside Companyacquired financial edgea company based in London, UK, provides new employee training for financial institutions, and Euromoney to learna London, UK-based course catalog for mid-career finance professionals. Financial terms were not disclosed.

the people

– collectiona venture capital firm based in London, UK, was hired Pierre Dimitri Jour-Coty As a partner. He previously served as Senior Vice president of Delivery at Uber.

– Rockbridge growth justicea private equity firm based in Detroit, Michigan Tony Police As a partner. He was with him before Huron capital Partners.